BurmaNews: February 2, 1995

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Asean urged to discipline burma, keep Rangoon out of informal
Dec meeting
2, February 1995

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) should ex-
clude Burma from its palnned first informal meeting of the
leaders of 10 Southeast Asean nations in December as parts of
disciplinarian measures to persuade Rangoon to follow the
association's constructive engagement policy, said chairman of
the House committee on foreign affairs Suthin Noppaket.
Suthin said Burma's recent attack on the karenstronghold at
manerplaw was not in line with Asean's "constructive
engagement".
"Asea should discipline Slorc  in orderto let them known that
their actions were way out of line," he told a seminar on
human rights situation in Burma following the fall of
Manerplaw, organized here on Tuesday by non-government mental
Asian Forum.
According to Suthin, Thailand should take the
initiativebecause it was the chief architect and supporter of
the costructive engagement policy. Foreign Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra said Thailand would stay neutral with concern to
Rangoon's military actions in their own country, and he also
defended that constructive engagementwith Burma still had a
work-able approach.
Suthin suggested  that a form of disciplinarian action could
be the exclusion of burma from the meeting in December, or
establishing certain conditions that the country should abide
by - such as the release of all political prisoners - before
Burma can become  an Asean's guest.
"Asean can't just allow burma to sit among its officials
without it being set some conditions," he said.
Burma was invited last year to attend as Asean annual meeting
as guest of the host country, Thailand. Asean officials
confirmed that burma's status for attending this year's Asean
ministerial meeting in brunei remained in the balance
depending on developments in the country.
Asean also planned to invite the government heads of Burma,
Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam to attend ann informal meetings of
the ten regional states which is to be held at the same time
as the Fifth Asean Summit.
"Asean has been using the carrot-and-stick approach with slorc
- the carrot been the invitation to join the Asean table. Now,
because Slorc have attacked Karen stronghold, the "stick"
comes into use to discipline the Burmese regime," Maung Maung
said, secretary for internal affairs of Burma's exiled
government.
According to Suthin, the concept of human rights must have a
strong importance within the conditions. He insists that this
is not a from of interference with Burma's internal affairs as
human rights are universal and Burma's violationof these
rights has createdproblems for Thailand, citing the overflow
of refugees into the country.
Suthin added that Thailand and Asean must have a clear
definition as to what the "costructive engage3ment" policy is,
as well as in which direction Thailand and Asean would like to
see the policy follow. He insisted that the concept of
democracy in which the general public can be a part of -  as 
well human rigfhts issues - have a strong presence in this
definition and direction.
Assoc Prof Chaihoke Chulasiriwong of Chulalongkorn
University's Faculty of Political Science said that Thailand
must acknowledge that there are certain consequences to this
policy and said that Thailand must decide whether the benefits
the country would receive are worth the efforts put out.
"If one was to closely examine ties (between Thailand and
Burma), I'm sure that there are some personal interest
involved that the general piblicdoes not know about. Moreover,
I'm not so sure whether the benefits that Thailand ahs gained
under the constructive engagement have been worth the efforts
put in. Because in the end, it's the people herethat has to
put up with the burdens involved - such as the influx of
refugees," Chaichoke said.
He said the Slorc is well aware that Thailandis not sincere in
its efforts to legitimize Burma, and said the both countries
engaged in this policy because there are national, as well as
personal interest involved. (TN)


Burma's troops attack last key rebel outposts
2, February 1995 

Burmese forces yesterday fought to crush the three remaining
rebel strongholds along the Burmese -Thai border as Australian
politicans called for international trade sanctions against
the military junta.
The Burmese troops rained artillery and small arms fire on
there rebel strongholds grouped kilometres apart along 384 km
of the Thai-Burmese border.
Minn Aung Myint, of the All Burma Students' Democratic Front,
said there had been "intense fighting" but declined to give
casualty figures.
 The students' group is one of several opposition groups who
have refused to give in to the junta's attacks along the
border. "We can defend our strongholds," Minn Aung Myint said.
The fighting has forces about 15,000 refugees flee the areas,
most of them across the border into Thailand, said Aung Naing,
chairman of the students' northern division.
Minn Aung Myint said some of refugees did not have enough
shelter and were within the range of artillery. About 40 of
them escaped from being forced to act as porters for Burmese
troops in the war zone, he said.
The junta on Friday took the rebel headquarters of Manerpplaw,
240 km from the Burmese caplital of Rangoon. The base was the
junta, and its loss has intensifed the rebels' resolve to hang
onto their smaller bases.
Rebels sources said six tanks, 55 trucks filled with artillery
and bullets, and 100soldiers had been sent to reinforce the
1,500 Burmese troops attacking the strnghold of Kawmoora, 200
km south of Manerplaw. The base, surrounded by a minefield and
thick wall, is being defended by 800 rebel forces.
Relief workers and rebels say the Burmese leadership, known at
the Slorc, appears to be preparing to fight until it seizezs
Kawmoora, as wellas the other strogholds of Dawn Gwin, 32 km
from Manerplaw, and the unnamed territory about 240 m to the
south.
"When it comes to sheer viciousness and murderous
brutalityit's hard to beat the Slorc," said Australian Sen
Vicki Bourne, spokeswoman for foreign affairs and human
rightsfor the Democracy Party. "Slorcshould be isolated by the
international community."
Bourne called for international economic and trade sanactions 
against the junta in a statement issued on Tuesday in
Australia and received yesterday in Bangkok.
The call came just one day before Thailand is to sign a 30
years agreement to buy annually 10 billion baht ($400 million)
in natural  gas from the Burmese junta.
The Australian Democrats criticised the recent visit toBurma
by Australia's former promer minister, Bob Hawke, as head of a
business delegation. He was jeered by about 20protesters upon
his return yesterday.
Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evanssaid on tuesday Hawke
should have used "his undoubet stature and
reputationinternationally to make some very important points
about the need for change in Burma."
The United States called on Saturday for Burma to end the
bloodyattacks.
"Weurge the regimeto avoid the path of confrontation and
international isolation, to end the violence," the White House
said inn a statement.
Burme has beenisolated politicallyby major world players such
as the United States, but trade with the juntahas been growing
in recent years.
The junta announced in 1992 a unilateral ceasefire against the
dozen or so insurgences and convinced most of them to
negotiate an end to their fighting. But the junta broke that
ceasefire in December to crush the handful of insurgences that
have resuld to give in.
The main rebels targeted, the Karen, have beenfighting
since1948 forgreater autonomy from the central govcernment.
They are closely aligned with students and politicans who
fledRangoonafter the junta crushed a pro-democracy revolt in
1988, killing hundreds, and then ignored the results of
the1990 poll it lost to the opposition.
Sources close to the rebelssaid the collapse of the rebels'
remainingthree strongholds could result in tens of thousands
of refugeedsfrom rebel areas where more than one million
people reside.
Col Palagkul Klahan, Thailand's military spokesman, said
Bangkok did not want the refugeesto stay isdefinitely on Thai
soil and would push them back as soon as the situation
permitted.
A government attack on kawmoora would have to come along a
several-hundered-metre passage studded with mines and within
range of a network of bunkers. Previous governement attempts
have cost the lives of hundreds of government troops.
Tens of thousands of Karens, military and civilian, have taken
refugee and Thailand since last week. The Thai military keeps
tight rein on them.
The Karen leader, General Bo Mya, remains in Burma, according
to a KNU source.
Meanwhile, the strongman of the Burmese governemnt, Gen Khin
Nyunt, said on Tuesday that the fall of Manerplaw would be the
satrt of an "era of peace" in the region, according to Burmese
national radio.
Karen refugees at Ban Mae Tawla have appealed to Thai
officials to give them shelter and other humanitarian
assistance to supplement the basicaid they getfrom non-
governmental organisations.
A Karen leader, Po Dah, said that so far no Thai government
agency has extended assistance to karen refugees who have
taken temporary refugee in Thailand.
Threenon-government organizations - Aide Medicale
International, International ResuceCommunity and the UK-based
Camridge CCP - have helped  provide medicaltreatment, food,
toolsand shelter for thousands of karen who crossed the border
to stay at temporary camps along the Moei and Salwee. (BP)


The good life?
2, February 1995

I would like to commend Singapore on its treatment both in
education and healthcare of its children. But my question to
Liew Choon Bon from Singapore'sPublic Relations Department is,
why it stops at Singapore's borders.
I read recently that Singapore is Burma's number one
tradepartner. Does this mean Singapore condones Burma's
treatment of its children and adults? Can Singapore guarantee
the consumer of Singapore goods that Burma's children did not
suffer so others can profit?
Until I have that proof, I personally will boycott all goods
manufactured in Singapore.
Because of their close ties with Burma they are in the best
position to help. If Singapore cotinues its trade, the answer
can only be that money is more important than the lives of
children in Burma.
I encourage everyone to boycott productsfrom Singapore until
they stop this trade with the Slorc. Singapore is probably the
Slorc's best friend, but the Burmese people'sworstenemy. (TN)


Burma keen on energy related projects
2, February 1995

Burmese Energy Minister Khin maung Thein idicated his
country's willingness to take part in energy-related projects
with Thailandwhen he paid a courtesy call on Interrior
Minister Sanan Kachornprasart yesterday.
Maj-Gen Sanan said the Burmese minister is scheduled to sign a
contract with the Petroleum Authority of Thailand tooday at
Government House on the long-term import of natural gas to be
developed from Burma's Yadana offshore gas field.
The agreement follows the signing last September of a
memorandum of understanding for Thailand to import natural gas
from the field.
 He said the singing of the contract will improve relations
and understanding between the two countries.
The Interrior Minister said he had the Burmese minister also
talked about the Salween hydro-electric dam project between
Thailand and Burma. Burma has shown willingness to take part
in energy-related projects both at the Salween River and other
sources of energy, he said.
Asked if the problem of minority groups in Burma would affect
the project, he said it was Burma's duty to tackle its
internal problems.
"Burma should take responsibility for the laying of gas
pipelines in its territory." (BP)


New advice: Learn to love Slorc now, collect handsome profits
later
2, February 1995
GARY BIESTY AND JAMES CHAPMAN, PARTNERS WITH JOHNSON STOKERS &
MASTER, OFF THIS UNUSUALLY UPBEAT ASSESSMENT OF BURMA'S
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS


As the investment climatein new markets become
morecompetitive, foreign investors, in their continuing serch
for new opportunities, are now turning to Burma.
Despite political and foreign exchange difficulties, Burma
would appear to hold cosiderable investment potential.
Foreign businessmen are filling the twice-weekly fights from
Hong Kong and the daily hop from Bangkok.
The authorities in Burma have labelled 1996 "Visit Myanmar
Year". Hotel booking for the end of February are already
difficult during the week of the Myanmar Trade Fair which
concides with the UK embassy-sponsored British Week.
Burma has past connections with Scotland. Many of the most
successful companies in Burma's heyday were established and
/or run by Scots, for example, the Burma Oil Company, the
Irrawaddy Flotilla Company and Stell brothers.Burmathen were
very different from Burma today. At that time Burmawas the
richest country in Asia and the world's biggest exporter of
rice.
With a land mass approximately twice the size of France and
the UK combined, with along coastline, with vast natural
resources including oil and gas, and with a population of
around 45 million people, ingredients are there for yet
another Asia tiger.
Due to the political climate, Burma has been denied
multilateral aid and development has been slow.
But many foreign governments now appear to be adopting a new
approach in dealing with Slorc and are actively encouraging
investment.
The international business community, particularly in Thailand
(a mere 50 minutes away by air) and Singapore, has been quick
to respond.
The hotel industry, always the first wave of investors in any
new market, is there in force, with new hotels sprouting up in
Rangoon and Mandalay.
Some of these projects, like the 450-room hotel development of
Singapore's Straits Steamship Co or the US$150 million
Shangri-La project, are significant investments by any
standard, and particularly in a developing country which has
been shut off from the world for more than 30 years.
Burma has all the ingredients which have lured foreign
investors to other emerging markets. It has a large, well
educated workforce, a high literacy rate and 45 million
potential consumers of western products.
However, unlike many of its Asian neighbours, Burma has a
 .egal systembased on English law. The Myanmar Companies Act,
for example, is very similar to an old version of the British
Companies Act.
legislation in Burma isproduced in both burmese and English.
The accountancy system has british origins. Although alot of
dust has gathered during the period of isolation, the basis
for a clear legal environment for investors is there.
This is quite different from Vietnam, a communist country with
a French colonial history and varied legal influences
including those of the former Eastern Bloc, and where new
legislation is produced in large quantities, adopted from
various jurisdictions and not readily accessible to investors
and their professional adviser.
There is reason to suggest that Burma could develop much
faster than Vietnam if the momentum could be kept up and
foreign exchange problems and political uncertainties
resolved.
The Union of Myanmar Foreign Investment Law (FIL) was enacted
in November 1988. The Foreign Investment Commission is the
government body responsible for approval of all foreign
investment under the FIL.
To date 112projects with direct foreign investment have been
approved by the Foreign Investment Commission with a total
investment value, according to the commission, of US &3,5
billion.
The Foreign Investment Commission meets frontightly, and
assuming that all the paperwork is in order, the commission
says that approval can be obtaied in 2.3 weeks from the date
of submission.
Under the FIL, foreign ivestors are permitted to from either
100%-owned companies or joint-venture companies. A joint-
venture company must have a minimum of 35% of its share
capital in foreign ownership. Wholly foreign-owned companies
appear to have been the preferred vehicle for foreign
ivestors.
In a government-invested joint venture with foreign investos,
the Burmese Government's interest is not likely to be lees
than 50% and frequenly will be 51%.
Export-oriented projects, projects for the exploitation of
natural resources requiring large investment, high-technology
projects, projects which create new employment projects are
given priority.
The governemnt is encouranging investment in agriculture,
aquaculture fisheries, tourism, energy, mining and transport.
The interest of foreign investors in the tourism industry is
evidenced by the many hotel projects visible in the major
cities.
The government has set a target of 500,000 vistors for Visit
Myanmar Year in 1996.With a dearth quality hotel rooms, there
is a degree of urgency to a accommodate the expected influx of
foreign tourists.
In addition, foreign companies may establish a place of
business or branch in Burma, Some 15 foreign banks have set up
representative offices. They are not, as yet, allowed to
establish ful branch operations, because the government wants
to protect the local blanking industry.
A permit to Trade issued by the Ministry of trade is a
prerequisite for all companies with foreign shareholders,
whether the investment is under the FIL or under the Myanmar
Companies Act.
Tax incentives to foreign investors include:
* A three year tax holiday, extendable for a further
reasonable perod in some cases. The standrd tax rateis 30%.
* Exemption from tax for reinvested profits.
* Up to 50% tax relief on profits derived from exports.
* Allowable deduction from taxable profits for income tax of
foreign workers paid for by the employer.
* Allowable deduction from taxable profits for research and
development costs.
* The right to accelerate depreciation.
* Exemption from customs duties for imported raw materials for
the first three years of commercial production./
* Exemption from customs duties for machnery and equipment
used during the construction period.
Foreign currency convertibility ia a significent deterrent to
investment in BUrma. Unless an investor is able to sell his
products or bill for his services in hard currency, he is
required to convert local kyatat the official rate.
The official rate of the Kyat to the US $ is 6-1, against the
black marketrate of 110-1.
Although these are problems that must be overcome, it is not
difficult to see BUrma becoming another economic tiger. 
 Burma has great potential in the field of aquaculture.
According to Burmese fisherman, Burma is the only country
where fish die of old age.
Despite the problems associate with the political situation
and and foreign exchange difficulties, there is a growing
momentum for foreign investment in Burma, and the time to
start looking at the potential of this countyr is now. (BP) 


KNU guerrillas take BUddhist defectors' temple camp
2 February 1995
Yindee Lertcharoenchok
The Nation

ETHNIC Karen guerrillas have overrun a Buddhist mutinners had
established a stronghold,
seizing a large quantity of arms and ammunition and causing an
undisclosed number of
casualities, sources said.
Last Thursday evening, KNU managed to capture was the
culmination of several days of
heavy mortors shelling and attacks by KNU ground forces on
soldiers from a breakaway
Karen Buddhist faction launched after the expiry of a DFec 31
deadline set by the KNU for
their surrender.
|nformed border sources said 41 mutinners gave themselves up
after the fall of their
stronghold although an unspecified number of them managed to
escape befpre the advance
of KNU forces.
However, the capture of the temple does not single any end to
the conflict between the KNU
and soldiers from the breakway Democratic Kayin (Karen)
|Buddhist Association, the sources
said. The KNU, in a press release, said it did not yet have
accurate figures for the number of
soldiers killed and wounded in the attack.
One informed source said the KNU managed to acore a direct hit
on the mutinners' arms
depot, causing a massaive explosion which is beleive to have
caused many casualties.
In another press statement released last Sunday, the KNU
announced it would take "effective
action" against the mutinners _ who defected and formed the
rival Democratic Kayin (Karen)
Buddhist Association on  Dec21-unless they surrendered by
Dec31.
"THe KNU is determined to take effective action against those
who foster factionalism and
collaboration with the enemy (Slorc) by using flase excuses
related to religion,|" the
statement said.
Earlier, about 250-300 rank and file KNU members of the
Buddhists faith accused Karen
leader of religious discrimination and of not promopting
Buddhist but the organization's
leadership is dominated by Christians.
Simmering resentment on the relegious issue recently erupted
into open conflict. At least two
armed clashes were reported between KNU and dissident forces
aftre the KNU expelled a
Buddhists abbot, U Thuzana, from the Sob Moei temple accusing
him of spying for the
Burmese Junta-Slorc. One KNU officer claimed that the KNU had
a document written by U
Thuzuna which proved that the abbot decided to leave the
temple of his own accord.
Imformed border sources said the Democratic Alliance of Burma,
an umbrella organization of
a dozen ethnic and pro-democracy groupsa, was trying to
intervene in order to bring a quick
end tyo the in-fighting which they fear could damage the whole
BUrmese opposition
movement if armed clashes continue for much longer.
It is unclesr whether those who managed to escape from the
temple were able to join up with
the remaining mutinners, who have set up their headquarter
near a BUrmese army base.
(TN)


Rangoon troops 'helped Karens take KNU base'
2 february 1995
Aung Hla Tun
Reuter

A SENIOR Burmese general has said that government troops
helped breakaway Karen
rebels capture the KAren NAtional Union's MAnerplaw
headquarter, newspapers reported.
The satatement by Lt Gen Khin Nyunt, Secretary One of the
ruling Slorc, was the first
detailed official account of Rangoon's role in the fighting
which culminated in the sacking of
MAnerplaw on Friday.
Speaking to officials and civilians at a meeting on Tuesday in
Pa-an, capital of KAren state in
Southeast Burma,  Khin Nyunt said ther breakaway Democratic
Kayin (Karen) Buddhist Army
(DBKA) beleived the KNU was not sincerely seeking peace and
had asked for help from the
Tatmadaw, the country's armed forces.
"So, for the sake of peace and tranquillity in Kayin [Karen]
State and security of the life of the
people, the Tatmadaw provides necessary assistance to the DKBA
group," the official New
Light of Myanmar  newspaper quoted him as saying.
Khin Nyunt said 13 underground armed groups had now accepted
government offers of a
ceasefire.
Referring to the KNU's leader Bo Mya and his headquarters at
Manerplaw near the Thai
border, Khin Nyunt said that "whenever he got into a tight
spot due to offensives he fled into
the other country and came back when it clamed."
The Slorc general accused Bo Mya and other Knu leaders of
living in luxury and said they
were continually inventing excuses not to discuss peace terms,
in order not to lose power.
"Base-level youths and middling members of the KNU underground
armed group realized
this and they wanted peace," said Khin Nyunt, adding that in
1994 armed clashes broke out
between the DKBA and KNU.
"Finally, the KNU headquarters at Manerplaw was attacked and
captured by the DKBA group
which broke away from the KNU group," he was quoted as saying.
The SLORC had helped the Buddhist Karen group because its
"attitude and concept" were in
accordance with its own.

Pochana wants daily update border police on Burma-Thai
frontier situation

National Police Chief Pochana Boonyachinda has instructed
police forces alonf the Thai-
Burmese border to be on alert and to file a daily report of
the border situation following last
week's Burmese offensive on Karen guerrillas.
In his instructions on security measures along the border
dated Jan 31, Pol Gen Pochana
mentioned that fighting between Burmese army troops and Karen
forces "has a tendency to
escalate" and will drive many Karen villagers living along the
common border into Thailand _
influx which can affect border order and security.
In his report, Pochana asked  border police froces to prepare
themselves by strengthening
border security measures and giving protection to local
agencies.
The police should coordinate closely with administrative
authorities and local forces in
overseeing refugees based on government policy with emphasis
on humanitarian and human
rights principles, his report stated, adding that they should
also help Thai villgers affected by
the fighting and provide appropriate assistance to officials
from both government and private
sectors.
Lastly, Pochana ordered the police to closely follow any
movements along the border with
Burma and file daily reports with the Police Department.
The police chief made his instructions after several thousands
of Karen refugees fled the
fighting across the Moei and Salween rivers into Thailand.
While the government has
estimated that 6,000 arrivals are taking refuge in Thailand,
mainly in Mae Hong Son and Tak
provinces, private relief agencies assisting the group asid
about 10,000 have arrived in
Thailand.
Interior Minister Sanan Kachornprasart, who made a stunning
statement on Tuesday that the
refugees "will be pushed back [to Burma] without having to
wait for fighting to cease",
appeared to have softened his stance yesterday.
He said that the situation of the 6,000 refugees seeking
temporary asylum here does not
affect Thailand, and added that any members of the armed
factions who flee into the country
will be disarmed.
Sanan told Thai border villagers not to be concerned with
"military spillovers" , assuring them
that authorities will provide protection to Thai citizens
first.
Defence Minister Vijit Sookmark yesterday quoted Deputy
Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan
as telling Tuesday's Cabinet meeting that the United States
"has praised Thailand for its
humanitarian treatment of the refugees".
Vijit said the Third Army Region Command is taking care of the
refugees and will also disarm
any forces crossing the border intoThailand.
burma, he said, understood the Thai position "very well" as
"we are assisting the Karen on a
humanitarian basis".
When asked if Karen leader Gen Bo Mya is taking refuge in the
Kingdom, the defence
minister said he did not know.
A Reuters report from Mae Sot's Tak district quoted an officer
of the Karen National Union
(KNU) as saying that Gen Htaw Hla, the Karen commander of
Kawmoora, another Karen
stronghold opposite this northern province, has vowed to
defend his camp with his life.
The officer said about 300 fighters of the breakaway
Democratic Kayin Buddhist Army
(DKBA) have joined the 1,500 Burmese government troop
reinforcements sent to Kawmoora.
"Gen Htaw Hla tols us that he will hold this camp with his
life and he will never order the
camp to be abandoned," the officer added.
Burmese gunners maintained their mortar and artillery
bombardment  of Kawmoora on the
west bank of the Moei river in southeastern Burma, but Thai
army officers at the scene said
the pressure appeared to have eased.
"Late last night there were about 20 artillery shells fired
into Kawmoora, but that was
unusually light compared with the hundreds they fired in the
past week," said a Thai army
officer standing near the river which marks the border between
Thailand and Burma.
DKBA is the military wing of the Democratic Kayin Buddhist
Organization (DKBO) which was
formed last month by a breakaway group of Karen Buddhist
guerillas after they mutinied
against the Christian-dominated KNU leadership. (TN)

Burma's War
2 February,1995
On Friday, under heavy shelling from the Burmese army, members
of the Karen ethnic group
evacuated from Manerplaw, near the Thai border, their capital
of 20 years. We suspect this
is only the opening round of a new offensive against Burma
ethnic minorities.
The burmese army has been trying to impose a military solution
on that country's
amolderomg ethnic qusetion since taking power in 1962. The
only result has been the
impoverishment of a potentially rich nation. Now the latest
batch of generals-calling
themselves the State Law and Order Restoration Council, or
Slorc-seem intent on reenacting
this tragedy.
Last week, they reneged on their own unilaterally declared
ceasefire and attacked the
headquarters of the Karen National Union, one of the oldest
and most-respected of the
autonomy-seeking ethnic groups. Government propoganda
maintains that the troops were
only backing up Buddhist dissidents who were rebelling against
the KNU's predominantly
Christian leadership. More reliable reporting suggests this
was a Burmese military operation
all the way.
There's good reason to worry that this is preliminary to a
broader assult. Unlike some of the
ethnic groups, the Karens weren't involved in
drug-trafficking, and they hadn't broken the
ceasefire. They were in the military sights for sheltering
hundreds of pro-democracy
dissidents from Rangoon and other cities. These refugees had
taken up arms after Slorc
turned it's machine guns on thousands of peaceful
demonstrators and later annulled
democratic elections.
The regime's biggest fear at the time was that these urban
dissidents woul;d unite with the
well-armed rebels in the hinterlands. So Slorc moved in recent
years to patch up ceasefire
deals with most of the ethnic rebels yet it was clear that
these were only for the sake of
expediency - the regime consistently avoided entering yalks
toward a permanent settlement.
Rather, it's pretty clear that Burma's generals were using the
lull merely to prepare another
throw of the military dice. The army has nearly doubled in
size - it now numbers almost
300,000 men. The regime has taken delivery of $2 billion worth
of new tanks, combat aircraft
and other weapons. This hardware comes courtesy of Beijing,
which abruptly switched sides
after decades of filtering arms to the various rebel groups
through the now-defunct
Communist Party of Burma.
Some of Slorc's neighbours may still put stock in the
reformist imagery Slorc has been
hanging out - its televised meetings with Aung San Suu Kyi,
its talk of a new constitution, its
embrace of foreign investment. (As its troops were rolling
over Manerplaw, Rangoon
announced a $400 million-a -year naturalgas deal with
Thailand.) But the same old thugs still
hold power. And while economic progress may have grease the
skids, real change won't
come about until they're gone.
Slorc has no legitimacy in the eyes of the Burmese people to
tackle the country's problems. It
has the blood of thousands on its hands - murder, torture, and
slave labour are its everyday
ways of doing business. The regime's ceasefire deals have been
mostly with groups affiliated
with the now-defunct Burmese Communists. These ex-Chinese
allies have used the peace to
launch the most dramatic explosion in opium and herrrroin
production the world has ever
seen. (Indeed, before launching the assult on Manerplaw, Slorc
was telegraphing that its real
target was opium warlord Khun Sa.)
Neither the opium problem nor anything else about Burma's
future will be settled without the
establishment of a government with a legitimate mandate from
the people. THe Burmese
army has spent 30 years demonstrating its incompetence to
solve the country's woes, let
alone quell the ethnic insurgencies.
Some of Burma's neighbours may have sorrowfully concluded that
only strong-arm tactics
can put Burma on the road to Asean miraclehood. It would be
one thing if the regime were
content to quietly evolve. It's quite another if the army is
going to make another attempt to
cementing itself into power by waging renewed warfare against
the ethnic minorities that
make up nearly 30 per cent of Burma's population.
After last week, the advocates of "constructive engagement"
may have to think again. If their
economic and diplomatic support only props up the Burmese
military through another circle
of war, repression and chaos, these countries themselves will
pay a big part of the price - in
the form of refugees, guns, and drugs spilling across their
borders. (TAWSJ)