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BurmaNet: Report from Rangoon, 3/3



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"Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"
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The BurmaNet News: BURMANET: WHY WAS AUNG SAN SUU KYI RELEASED?
July 14, 1995   C. Fink

        Why was Daw Aung San Suu Kyi released on July 10, 1995?
As yet there is no definitive answer.  SLORC officials have
made no statements on the subject, and so far no
state-controlled media have even mentioned her release.
        When asked at a press conference at her home this
afternoon, Aung San Suu Kyi herself refused to speculate on the
reason for her sudden freedom.  However, this question
continues to preoccupy foreign observers and Burmese citizens
alike.  Does the SLORC have some devilish plan in mind or have
certain top SLORC leaders actually decided that it is time for
a change?
        Aung San Suu Kyi's detention order legally expired on
July 11, 1995, but it is unlikely that SLORC officials were
motivated purely by a desire to obey the law.  In fact, some
wonder whether they have released her only to re-arrest her or
even assassinate her in the near future.
        Another theory is that SLORC leaders desperately want
more foreign investment and felt that they could only obtain
it by freeing her.  This is plausible given the reluctance of
many countries to resume aid or promote investment in Burma
until Aung San Suu Kyi was released.  Some local Burmese also
believe that the impending threat of US trade sanctions against
Burma was an important factor.  Because of her release, Senator
Mitch McConnell has announced that he will delay introducing
the sanctions bill for two weeks in order to see if a move
toward genuine change will take place.
        Although some leaders in ASEAN countries, such as
Thailand and Singapore, have credited their constructive
engagement policy with playing a role, local residents reject
this claim.  They argue that the SLORC only responds to
punitive measures, not to soft-spoken suggestions from
countries which are already trading with them.
        Some foreign observers have conjectured that perhaps Ne
Win, who is over 80 years old, has become more concerned with
atonement for past sins and wanted to release her as an act of
merit.  While the actual reason is likely to have more to do
with present political concerns, local Burmese are convinced
that it was Ne Win who was behind the decision.  It seems that
two factions have now emerged within the SLORC, with one
supportivevof the decision to release her and the other
opposed.  The implications of this split are still not clear.
        One of the more interesting hypotheses, offered by a
well-informed Rangoon resident, is that the SLORC needs Aung
San Suu Kyi in order to realize its objectives.  According to
this person, the SLORC cannot handle the situation it has
gotten itself into.  The SLORC has operated in an inefficient
manner and has not been able to prevent the decline in living
standards for the majority of the people throughout the
country.  Moreover, the SLORC has not been able to work out
lasting solutions to the ethnic conflicts.  Although the SLORC
has signed ceasefire agreements with all the ethnic groups
except the Karen, they still only effectively control the areas
where their soldiers are stationed.  Perhaps they are hoping
that they can use Aung San Suu Kyi both to bring in more
foreign investment and to achieve true national reconciliation.
        Whatever the actual reason, Aung San Suu Kyi has urged
the international community to continue to monitor the
situation closely.  No other political prisoners have been
released, and the SLORC not made any moves to restore
democracy.  Aung San Suu Kyi has asked that SLORC guards remain
stationed within her compound for the time being, suggesting
that she herself is not completely convinced of her own
personal security.  Yet despite their skepticism, Aung San
Suu Kyi and her supporters are fervently hoping that the
process for restoring democracy has finally begun.