Wired News: Suu Kyi brings hope fo

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Subject: Wired News:  Suu Kyi brings hope for Change (DJ)

  RANGOON -- The businessman suddenly interrupts a conversation about Burma's political
situation.
  He drops his voice and asks a visitor to stop talking. Two men hover by the door outside.
When he resumes talking, his voice is lower, his eyes worried and his face damp with sweat.
  "If you complain, you go to jail," he says quietly after the men continue down the street. "All
people are scared. I think Aung San Suu Kyi can't do anything. Because now the military
controls all."
  The release last week of Burma's pro-democracy leader after nearly six years of house
arrest has brought a surge of joy to the Burmese. Thousands have thronged to the gates of
her lake-front home for a glimpse of her. Many hope her freedom will lead to political
reconciliation.
  But the hope is tempered by caution over whether her release signifies real change. Ms.
Suu Kyi and several diplomats here say it's too early to reward Burma with aid and greater
recognition.
  The ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council, or Slorc, hasn't explained why it
released Ms. Suu Kyi, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. Slorc took power in 1988 after
clashes between pro-democracy demonstrators and the military left thousands dead in
Rangoon.
  International pressure for her release had been mounting, but Slorc has shown little regard
for international opinion in the past. Forced labor remains a common practice, according to
human rights organizations and a U.S. State Department report. The reports also describe
rape, extra-judicial killings and the forced resettlement of civilians by government troops.
  The optimistic view is that the release of Ms. Suu Kyi is a first step toward a reconciliation
between Slorc and the prodemocracy forces. But even optimists say her release
demonstrates that Slorc believes it remains firmly in control.
  Both Ms. Suu Kyi and some diplomats here say they are reserving judgment. Western
governments seem unlikely to back the resumption of aid from the World Bank and other
international organizations until they have been convinced of Slorc's commitment to reform.
  Sein Win, a senior Burmese journalist, notes that Ms. Suu Kyi is regarded in the West as a
symbol of democracy. "If she does nothing, she will lose face," he says. "But if she can't
control the mobs, there will be serious consequences."
  Wednesday's Martyrs Day ceremonies may prove telling. The day marks the 1947
assassination of eight Burmese officials, including Ms. Suu Kyi's father, Aung San, revered as
the father of independent Burma. Ms. Suu Kyi announced Saturday that she will attend the
ceremonies, but diplomats expect her to try to avoid stirring up trouble.
  Even if multilateral aid isn't resumed immediately, Slorc already seems poised to benefit
from her release. U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell put off plans to introduce a bill calling for the U.S.
to ban investment and trade with Burma and to suspend assistance to countries that trade
with it.
  The regime has said it will return the country to democracy once it finishes drawing up a new
constitution. But drafts of that document include clauses guaranteeing a dominant political
role for the military. Other clauses would bar both Ms. Suu Kyi and the exiled opposition from
seats in the legislature.