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Organization: Forum for Democracy and Human Rights
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Date: Wed, 10 Jul 1996 16:49:02 +0000
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Subject: Political stalemate continues in Myanmar
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The Asian Age: Political stalemate continues in Myanmar
by Teena Gill

Bangkok, July 8: Even as the first anniversary of Burmese dissident leader=
 Aung
 San Suu Kyi=92s release approaches the stalemate between pro-democracy fo=
rces
 and the military regime indicates no signs of a solution.

On July 19 last year, in a surprise move the Burmese government set Suu Ky=
i 
free after keeping her for six years under house arrest for her role in th=
e 
pro-democracy uprising that swept the country in 1988.

Since then while Suu Kyi and her supporters have managed to revive politic=
al 
opposition in the country to some extent the military regime, which calls =
itself 
the State Law and Restoration Council (SLORC), too has made several gains,=
 
largely on the international diplomatic front.

Indications, however, are that matters could come to a head soon with eith=
er the 
democracy activists or the military forcing the pace of events.

=93 The Burmese (Myanmarnese) Government and the Opposition are like a pai=
r 
of boxers in slow-motion circling each other without throwing any punches.=
 This
 situation cannot last too long, said U HIA  PHAY, a Burmese writer  and 
political analyst here.

 In late May this year Suu Kyi=92s National league for Democracy(NLD) rais=
ed 
the  stakes by holding a three-day meet of top party leaders in Rangoon  d=
espite 
the military regime=92s warnings against the event.

SLORC authorities responded  by arresting over 250 NLD members who were 
duo to attend the party congress.

In a victory of sorts for the pro-democracy activists most of the arrested=
 NLD 
leaders were subsequently released. Official Newspapers, however, denied t=
hat 
the government was being lenient and stepped up their attacks on Suu Kyi a=
nd 
the NLD, calling them =93destructive elements=94 and =93stooges of foreign=
 power=94.

Yet another act of defiance by the NLD has been its regular weekend  publi=
c 
meetings outside Suu Kyi=92s house on university avenue in Rangoon where t=
he 
Burmese leader addresses crowds of sometimes up to 10,000 people.

In early June, SLORC authorities passed laws empowering the home ministry =
to 
ban the NLD=92s public meetings and arrest those attending  but till now s=
uch 
drastic action has actually been carried out.

Analysts interpret the military regime=92s passivity as being partly duo t=
o its fear 
 of sparking off international condemnation against any harsh steps it may=
 take.

During the past year the regime has consolidated its ties with the Associa=
tion of 
South East Asian Nations{ASEAN}, a grouping it wishes to join in the near 
future.

For the first time SLORC officials have been invited to attend a meeting a=
t 
Jakarta of the ASEAN Regional    Forum{ARF}, a security body, in July this=
 
year and do not want to precipitate a domestic crisis before the event.

But nobody doubts the fact that the Burmese military will not hesitate  to=
 
crack down severely on pro-democracy activists if their movement threatens=
 the
 stability of the regime itself.

Last month, though nothing finally happened, Rangoon was  rift with rumour=
s 
of Suu Kyi=92s impending arrest following  her call for recognition of Bur=
ma=92s 1990
 poll verdict which the NLD won by a landslide.   

=93Rearresting  me would probably give a new momentum to the movement for 
democracy,=94 Suu Kyi told an interviewer recently though she pointed out =
 that  
the NLD was  not trying  to provoke any such action  from the authorities.=
 
=93I don=92t think {mahatma} Gandhi or Martin Luther King courted arrest f=
or the 
sake of being arrested but only to show  that even at  the risk of impriso=
nment,=94
 one must do what one has to do,=94 she said.

For many Suu Kyi=92s  youthful supporters, however, the slow pace of polit=
ical 
movement  since her release  last year has been  frustrating.

On July 4, a small bomb exploded under a government bill-board denouncing 
pro-democracy activist in a downtown Rangoon park near the US embassy, the=
 
first violent incident in the Burmese capital  on the part of the pro-demo=
cracy 
forces in several years.

The  bomb was a reminder to the military regime  that  in the absence  of =
 
constructive dialogue with the NLD the situation can only get more turbule=
nt.-IANS

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