SLORC downfall (brain teaser)

[tun@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Using Gott's ( I will get correct spelling next time) hypothesis , if 
a causal observer is witnessing SLORC's existance during their
begining of the middle 50% of their left time, ie: (assumtion
of 8 years 25% mark), with 50% certainty that SLORC could last another
2.3 years to 24 years. yikes!!

If you are witnessing SLORC's existance at 25% mark,

	 0%      25%      50%      75%        100%
         |        |        |        |          |
         +--------+--------+--------+----------+
                 8 yrs    16       24        32 yrs
                  ^                 ^
                  |                 |
                  +-- middle 50% ---+

If you are witnessing SLORC's existance at 75% mark,

	 0%      25%      50%      75%        100%
         |        |        |        |          |
         +--------+--------+--------+----------+
                 2.6      5.2       8        10.6 yrs
                  ^                 ^
                  |                 |
                  +-- middle 50% ---+

Gott uses his model on Broadway shows and he was correct with 
the result on much higher confident level of 95%.
One can say with 95% confident that SLORC will last another .2 years to
320 years!! ouch...

One can use the same method is get 95% confident.

Ct