Fwd: NY Times Article, 2 SEPT 96 p.

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Subject: Fwd: NY Times Article, 2 SEPT 96 p. A2

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Forwarded message:
Subj:    NY Times Article, 2 SEPT 96 p. A2
Date:    96-09-03 23:32:05 EDT
To:      Christin@xxxxxxxxxx
To:      burmanet-l@xxxxxxxxxxx

BURMESE JUNTA SEEMS HEADED FOR SHOWDOWN

By Seth Mydans

Yangon, Myanmar, Sept. 1 -- It was raining hard on Saturday, but for an hour
applause and whistles and laughter came from under a sea of black umbrellas
as Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, a spray of pink flowers in her hair, taunted the
military Government, saying, "Why are you so afraid of us?"

Within the crowd of 2,000, squatting on both sides of University Avenue as
traffic crept by, people hunched over small tape recorders, risking arrest to
spread the words of the leader of the hard-pressed democratic movement in
Myanmar, formely Burma.

For 13 months, since releasing her from six years of house arrest, the
Government has permitted Mrs. ASSK, 51, to hold regular weekend rallies at
her front gate in the capital, formerly called Rangoon, even as it continues
to arrest her supporters and attack her in the press.

But in recent months the positions of the two sides have been hardening, and
foreign diplomats here say this small window of freedom that has been
accorded Mrs. ASSK may be closing.

Hopes for a dialogue have faded, and the struggle between the military rulers
and their democratic opponents is now one of heightened confrontation.

"We are increasing the momentum of our work, and they are increasing the
momemtum of arrests," Mrs. ASSK told foreign reporters before Saturday's
speech.

One Western diplomat who comes every week to the rallies said he found Mrs.
ASSK to be "more tense, more stressed."

"She is under a lot of pressure," he said.  "She has to keep the momentum up,
but fatigue is setting in.  Some of her leaders are old.  Some are in prison.
 Some have died.  She knows she will lose a waiting game; there is nothing
more to wait for."

For its part, the military junta continues to whittle away at here supporters
with arrests and prison sentences.  Stepping up its pressure, it has begun
identifying and detaining the more demonstrative members of the crowds at her
weekly rallies, said one of her chief lieutenants, U Tin Oo.

The military has already proved its stubborness, quashing a popular uprising
in 1988 with mass killings and discarding the results of a free election in
1990 when Mrs. ASSK's party, the National League for Democracy, won 85
percent of the seats in parliament.

Some people, though, like one medical doctor who stood under an umbrella with
a tape recorder in his hand, say they come to here rallies every week.

"I have relatives in Australia, and they are rich and well-educated," the
doctor said.  "Just because I live in Burma, why can't I be rich and educated
too?"

The rallies have also become a tourist attraction, and the crowd on Saturday
was sprinkled with visitors from the United States, France, Japan, Spain,
Germany and Britain, airming their cameras at Mrs. ASSK as she laughed and
gesticulated in the rain.

Around the city this weekend, though, a number of people said they did not
dare to attend, including some who work for Government enterprises and said
they had been ordered to stay away.

But word spreads, as one chemist said, "from mouth to mouth.

"I have been to see here twice and I like her," the chemist said.  "In Burma
if you like someone you will follow them."

Nevertheless, he said, the Government was succeeding in eroding her
popularity with its continuing attacks in the press, "like water dripping on
a stone."

Mrs. ASSK's main weapon now seems to be the support of Western countries,
particularly the United States.  But any moves the West may take, like an
economic boycott, have aleady been undercut by the support that the military
Government receives from its neighbors in the region.

Foreign analysts here say the Government seems to have been emboldened by its
induction in July as an observer member of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, the regional economic and political grouping.  In recent weeks these
countries have signaled their intent to continue to do business with Myanmar
despite its human rights record.

Speaking at the associations July meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia, Myanmar's
Foreign Minister, U Ohn Gyaw, stated his Government's position on human
rights in words not unlike those used by some of his neighbors.

"We respect the norms and the ideals of human rights," he said.  "But as in
any other country in Southeast Asia, we have to take into consideration our
culture, our history, our ethos.  What is good in other countries cannot be
good in our country."

At her meeting with reporters on Saturday, Mrs. ASSK described the continuing
arrests of her supporters since May, when the Government detained more than
250 members of her party in advance of a gathering at her house that marked
the sixth anniversary of their aborted election victory.

Though she said all but 11 of those people had since been released  she said
at least 61 more had been arrested since May and about 25 had been tried and
sentenced to prison terms.

"We want the whole world to know that there is no rule of law in Burma,:"
 she said.  "They are not interested in fair play.  Their main drive is to
crush the movement for democracy."

Just down the street from her house was a giant red billboard that read:
"People's desire: Oppose those relying on external elements, acting as
stooges, holding negative views.  Crush all internal and external destructive
elements as the common enemy."

But near this denunciation of the democracy movement stood white-shirted
policemen directing the traffic that crept past the rally.

It is a precarious balance that holds the seeds of confrontation.

Asked what she would do if the Government moved to ban here rallies, Mrs.
ASSK responded, "We would continue to hold the rallies."