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SLORC downfall... ???
- Subject: SLORC downfall... ???
- From: tun@siggy
- Date: Thu, 24 Oct 1996 00:05:00
I posted a following teaser, though may be flawed, to the Net a while back.
Gott is an theorist in Astromony. I think it is called Super Capunican (sp)
theory. They way things are going lately, Gott's theory might be right after
all.
ct
-------------------------------------------------------
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 1996 22:33:11 -0700 (PDT)
To: tun@siggy
Subject: SLORC downfall (brain teaser)
/* Written 6:55 PM Aug 20, 1996 by tun@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx in igc:reg.burma */
/* ---------- "SLORC downfall (brain teaser)" ---------- */
Using Gott's ( I will get correct spelling next time) hypothesis , if
a causal observer is witnessing SLORC's existance during their
begining of the middle 50% of their left time, ie: (assumption
of 8 years 25% mark), with 50% certainty that SLORC could last another
2.3 years to 24 years. yikes!!
If you are witnessing SLORC's existance at 25% mark,
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
| | | | |
+--------+--------+--------+----------+
8 yrs 16 24 32 yrs
^ ^
| |
+-- middle 50% ---+
However, if you assume that you are witnessing SLORC's existance at 75% mark,
There is up to 25% chance that they will last another 2.6 years
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
| | | | |
+--------+--------+--------+----------+
2.6 5.2 8 10.6 yrs
^ ^
| |
+-- middle 50% ---+
Gott uses his model on Broadway shows and he was correct with
the result on much higher confident level of 95%.
One can say with 95% confident that SLORC will last another .2 years to
320 years!! ouch...
Ct