ASEAN can help Myanmar start anew

[carol@xxxxxxx]

ASEAN CAN HELP MYANMAR START ANEW

By Lee Kim Chew
The Straits Times (reprinted in Japan Times 12/28/96)

	Long on a slow boil, Myanmar's simmering political discontent has finally
bubbled to the surface with the recent street protests as a harbinger of
things to come.

	It was the first time since the violent suppression of a nationwide
uprising in 1988 that students had come out defiantly into the open in
anti-government demonstrations.

	This is a sure sign of more civil unrest in the days ahead.  Tanks and
troops have to be put on the streets to maintain public order.

	This does not say much for the popularity of a regime which insists that it
alone has the right to rule the country.

	Mercifully, the generals feel constrained, for now at least.  They broke up
the demonstrations with water cannon, but this only because the world is
watching.  How tolerant can the regime be when it feels mortally threatened
by a restive people yearning for change?

	The political temperature has risen steadily since the National League for
Democracy (NLD) led by Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi was prevented
from holding its party convention in May.

	The generals have lately been blocking her from making speeches in front of
her house, a highly popular rallying point for her supporters since her
release from house arrest in July last year.

	Deprived of the only safety valve in the country to let off steam for
political dissent, the students and NLD supporters are forced to seek other
outlets.  Hence the unrest in the university campuses and street demonstrations.

	The stalemate cannot hold much longer.  With the political mood souring,
what can Asean countries do to help Myanmar?

	Constructive engagement can take the form of quiet diplomacy not only to
restrain the generals from violence against their own people but also to
prod them into starting serious talks with Ms Aung San Suu Kyi.

	This ought to be done urgently, notwithstanding Asean's principle of
non-interference in each other's internal affairs, or Myanmar will slide
inexorably down the road to perdition.

	For a grouping which wants to welcome Myanmar as a member, this is
something it should do as a friendly neighbour.

	Asean is well-placed to persuade the generals that there is a strong case
to be made for political reconciliation. This can be done, not in the full
blaze of publicity but through diplomatic channels.

	Just as Asean had played a key role in ending the Vietnamese occupation of
Cambodia, it will enhance its international stature if it can get the
generals to talk to NLD leaders who won the 1990 elections.

	These generals, who have few friends other than Asean and China, should
seize the opportunity to start anew.

	Unless this is done, it is not hard to picture a doomsday scenario for Myanmar.

	The United Nations General Assembly has just adopted a resolution urging
the regime to give Myanmar citizens more political freedom and end its
repressive policies.

	This year has seen more American companies pulling out of Myanmar to avoid
consumer boycotts in the US, where several states have passed legislation to
impose sanctions against those doing business with the regime.

	The incoming US Secretary of State, Ms Madeleine Albright, is a combative
grandmother with an instinctive dislike for wayward regimes, and she is
likely to push a much tougher line against the generals than her predecessor.

	This can only create more tension between Asean and the US, not to speak of
the Europeans, about the grouping's growing ties with the military regime.
The solution to Myanmar's political impasse is in the hands of the generals.
They need to be convinced that, ultimately, their survival and the country's
redemption depend not on suppression but a compromise with the NLD's
pro-democracy leaders.

	To be sure, Ms Aung San Suu Kyi is also subject to increasing pressure from
her supporters to come out more forcefully against the regime.

	The goodwill which was generated by her release from house arrest has long
dissipated, largely because the calls for political dialogue have gone unheeded.

	The generals cannot wish her away any more than she can do without them as
part of the equation.

	The reality is that she cannot deny the military a political role, even in
a civilian-led government. This much she must acknowledge publicly and make
it clear to her supporters.

	Such a declaration will go some way to reassure the generals, make them
less hostile towards her and thus open the way for a deal.  The solution to
Myanmar's political impasse is in the hands of the generals.  They need to
be convinced that, ultimately, their survival and the country's redemption
depend not on suppression but a compromise with the NLD's pro-democracy leaders.

	To be sure, Ms Aung San Suu Kyi is also subject to increasing pressure from
her supporters to come out more forcefully against the regime.

	The goodwill which was generated by her release from house arrest has long
dissipated, largely because the calls for political dialogue have gone unheeded.

	The generals cannot wish her away any more than she can do without them as
part of the equation.

	The reality is that she cannot deny the military a political role, even in
a civilian-led government. This much she must acknowledge publicly and make
it clear to her supporters.

	Such a declaration will go some way to reassure the generals, make them less
hostile towards her and thus open the way for a deal.