Asia Times stories missing from Bur

[Thomas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Subject: Asia Times stories missing from Burmanet

Dear Burmanet,

I was just forwarded your latest despatches which did not include these three
stories from Asia Times. (The most recent of which appeared on Monday Feb 24)
These are electronic versions identical to the printed version.
Regards,
Thomas Crampton, Asia Times Thailand Correspondent
Emai: thomas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Asia Times, February 14, 1997
Gas deals to fuel reforms in Myanmar economy 
Bangkok
Vissuta Pothong, Asia Times
Myanmar will earn enough from its natural gas deals with Thailand to start a
stock market and eliminate its currency dual exchange regime by 1998, the
governor of MyanmarÕs central bank said on Thursday.
Asked when he would abolish the dual- exchange rate, Governor Kyi Aye said:
ÒBy the end of the year 1998 when we start selling gas to Thailand, and we
will have enough hard currency.Ó
The combined gas deals for the Yadana and Yetagun offshore fields will
generate annual revenue of US$600 million for 30 years and provide Òthe
cushion for intervention in the stock marketÓ, Kyi Aye said.
MyanmarÕs foreign reserves, excluding gold, stood at US$193.7 million in
November. Import cover fell dramatically from near six months in 1995 down to
below six weeks by the end of last year.
Myanmar would establish a stock exchange at the same time as the
dual-currency rate was eliminated, he told Asia Times in an interview.
Activists have fiercely criticized the projects to pipe gas to Thailand,
saying they involved the use of forced labor and relocation of villagers.
Foreign companies Ð particularly those involved in the gas projects ÐÊhave
come under pressure to pull out of Myanmar over its poor human rights record.
The Thai government on Wednesday said the state-owned Petroleum Authority of
Thailand (PTT) would join a US$600 million investment in the Yetagun natural
gas project along with Texaco of the United States, JapanÕs Nippon Oil
Exploration and BritainÕs Premier Petroleum.
The National Energy Policy Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Chavalit
Yongchaiyudh, approved the PTT investments in Yetagun, the second largest
natural gas project after Yadana.
According to the agenda of WednesdayÕs meeting, the PTT voiced
dissatisfaction with the expected 13 percent rate of return, but felt obliged
to carry on with the project because of ThailandÕs constructive engagement
policy with Myanmar.
ÒWe will face problems with ethnic groups, human rights and political changes
in Myanmar, but we must do this investment,Ó the PTT said at the meeting.
With Myanmar due to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations this
year, the investment will further break its economic isolation and help
insulate its economy from threatened sanctions by the US and the European
Union.
Myanmar is courting foreign funds. Large foreign investors have recently
officially been allowed access to the black market rate for the kyat. On
Wednesday the kyat traded at six to the dollar officially, but 165 on the
black market, according to a Yangon-based Thai diplomat.
Kyi Aye acknowledged that 80 percent of currency exchanged was at the
unofficial rate while only 20 percent was exchanged at the official rate.
The black market value has dropped due to the governmentÕs launch of new
infrastructure projects, the diplomat said.
The central bank governor said an already-drafted securities and exchange law
would be passed within two months, paving the way to develop MyanmarÕs
capital markets.
He said that after the law came into effect the government would decide who
would chair the supervisory board of the Myanmar Stock Exchange.
Kyi Aye reiterated that although it would take one or two years to have a
proper stock exchange, over-the-counter trading was already underway.
The over-the-counter market, Myanmar Securities Exchange Center, is a joint
venture between JapanÕs Daiwa and a state bank in Myanmar.
Several Thai banks, including Bangkok Bank, have shown an interest in joining
in the establishment of the Myanmar Stock Exchange, the Thai diplomat said.
A growing number of foreign banks have opened representative offices in
Myanmar in cooperation with local banks since Myanmar undertook financial and
banking reforms in 1990 in line with a market-oriented economic policy.
But the country still desperately needs the foreign exchange which the gas
deals will bring in. The current account deficit remained large in 1995-6,
with imports totaling 8.33 billion kyats and exports amounting to 5.4 billion
kyats. Official figures for imports are not thought to include major military
purchases.
The US embassy in Yangon, in a critical report last June on the black
economy, alleged that drug exports alone appeared to be worth as much as all
legal exports. 

Asia Times, February 20, 1997
Yangon aims to clear path for investors
Bangkok
Vissuta Pothong and 
Thomas Crampton, Asia Times
Ethic Karen along the Thai border now under heavy attack from Myanmar
government troops stand in the way of hugely lucrative energy and trade
projects.
On Wednesday some Karen National Union (KNU) guerrillas reportedly began
surrendering their weapons. According to the Myanmar army, 400 guerrillas
surrendered their weapons to Myanmar troops, but the KNU said that only 70
were involved.
Myanmar previously vowed to clear out all KNU guerrillas from its eastern
border.
Economics played no decisive role in the decision to launch the annual dry 
season offensive which resulted in razed villages and sent more than 20,000
refugees across the Thai border in the past week.
There are, however, several key projects on both sides of the border that
stand to benefit from the surrender of the Karen.
ÒThere are a whole host of things that have been talked about if the [KNU]
was not in the way, hydroelectric dams, the importing of water. The Karen can
potentially be an economic threat,Ó a Yangon-based Western diplomat said.
MyanmarÕs Ministry of Energy advisor  Pe Kyi insisted the fighting with the
Karen would Ònot in any wayÓ affect progress of the Yadana gas pipeline.
However, a Yangon-based employee of Texaco working on the project said he had
no confidence in MyanmarÕs ability to protect the pipeline. ÒYou can have
soldiers every five feet, but you just need one crazy man and anything can
happen.Ó
The controversial pipeline Ð which will provide an annual income of US$600
million for 30 years Ð is just one of a series of projects in the wedge of
Myanmar formerly occupied by the Karen located between Thailand and the
Andaman Sea.
The Yangon government recently granted a licence to Thai companies 
MDX and Ital-Thai and JapanÕs Marubeni to carry out a feasibility study on a
150 megawatt hydroelectric dam on the Mae Kok river near Tha Ton, opposite
ThailandÕs Tak province where the refugees have fled.
A Yangon-based Asian diplomat said: ÒRight now the gas pipeline is the
countryÕs major economic interest and for the first few years of operation it
will be the largest source of hard currency.
ÒThey want to eradicate the KNU so there wonÕt be any problems negotiating
peace or any problems with the gas line, which in the past the KNU has
attacked,Ó the diplomat added.
Over the past few years the Karen have launched several attacks in the
pipeline region but all Ð bar one in 1995 Ð have stopped short of the
construction zone, according to Yangon-based officials of the Petroleum
Authority of Thailand.
The gas companies have managed to set up a headquarters and start laying pipe
without undue KNU interference.
Also straddling the area is a project to turn the undeveloped Tavoy into a
deep seaport to give Myanmar desperately needed access to export markets in
South Asia, the Middle East and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Linked to Thailand by road and rail, Tavoy would be the first port in the
Andaman Sea that could transfer goods from Europe and the United States
without stopping at Singapore or traveling into the Gulf of Thailand.
At present, the undeveloped site is an abundant source of fresh seafood which
is flown daily to Yangon before being air shipped around the region.
Contractors have not yet been selected to upgrade the port to serve 120,000
tonne vessels, but Japanese investors have already shown a great deal of
interest in developing a nearby industrial estate, according to Ital-Thai
president Premchai Karnnasuta.
Ital-Thai had also planned a road link connecting the industrial estate with
Thailand, Premchai added.
Thai investors appreciated the potential of the project so much that last
month they upset Myanmar officials by trying to outbid each other.
ÒOverwhelmed with separate project proposals, Development Minister David Abel
said that Thai investors should not struggle with one an-
other to get into Tavoy but should work together with cooperation, dividing
up their strengths,Ó Manu Sattayateva, director in charge of the Western
Seaboard, said.
Eager to import MyanmarÕs natural gas to generate much needed electricity and
act as a gateway for goods from Tavoy, Thailand has been developing the
Western Seaboard development scheme.
The final Western Seaboard study, to be presented on March 8 by the Japanese
International Cooperation Agency, will be the basic strategy for the
development of sub-regional linkages for Thailand with Myanmar by the year
2011.
Among other initiatives, the scheme encourages the use of illegal immigrants
and refugees near the border as low-wage factory workers.
Thai investors in Kanchanaburi have also urged the government to construct a
railway to the proposed deep seaport at Tavoy.
ÒIf you have peace along the border, everyone can enjoy the economic
benefits,Ó Thanin Pa-em, of ThailandÕs National Economic and Social
Development Board, said.
ÒThe pipeline projects are the deciding factor for the success of other
projects.Ó 
 Pe Kyi of MyanmarÕs Ministry of Energy stressed the Karen could never attack
the Yadana gas pipeline and it was on schedule for a July 1, 1998 start up.
However, ThailandÕs economic advantages could be offset by both the cost of
dealing with refugees and also the prospect of facing MyanmarÕs troops for
the first time in 50 years without the benefit of the Karen rebels acting as
a buffer, a Bangkok-based analyst said.

Asia Times, February 24, 1997
Thai general predicts fall of Karen rebel group
Mawker Refugee Camp, Thailand
Thomas Crampton and Vissuta Pothong, Asia Times
The KarenÕs 50-year battle for autonomy from Yangon will end in a crushing
defeat within four weeks, predicts a Thai general overseeing security in
ThailandÕs Tak border province with Myanmar.
Sommai Wichaworn said some 10,000 guerrillas of the Karen National Union
(KNU) battling Myanmar government forces along the Thai border would soon
surrender or flee to Thailand.
On Sunday morning MyanmarÕs state radio broke its silence on the militaryÕs
latest massive offensive against the Karen to claim its troops had killed 41
rebels and seized 293 weapons along with 270,000 rounds of ammunition.
Another 243 weapons and 70,000 rounds of ammunition were brought in by 511
officers and soldiers who surrendered following disagreements with the
Òextremist leadershipÓ of the guerrilla movement, the broadcast said.
The KNU is the last major insurgency yet to reach a ceasefire with the ruling
State Law and Order Restoration Council. Since 1989, 15 other groups have
agreed to terms with the Yangon junta. 
The proximity of the fighting to Thailand has raised fears of confrontation
between the troops of Myanmar and Thailand which in the past has used the
various ethnic guerrilla armies along the border as a buffer against Yangon.
Thailand allows fleeing KNU fighters to take refuge in Thai territory, but on
condition they surrender their weapons.
ÒIn the past we allowed armed Karen rebels into the camps. They went out at
night to fight, coming back by dawn pretending to be refugees. Now, however,
they must surrender weapons if they want to come into the camps,Ó Lieutenant
General Thanom Wacharaput, commanding general of the Third Army Corps said.
He added that the camps would be amalgamated and moved 10km away from the
border. For the first time movements in and out of the camp would be tightly
controlled by Thai soldiers, he said.
There have been several incursions into Thai territory by Myanmar-backed
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) troops intent on torching the refugee
camps. 
At the end of January the DKBA burned and looted two of 17 camps along the
border, leaving more than 7,000 refugees homeless, apparently with the
support of Myanmar government troops.
Thailand hosts about 90,000 Karen refugees. Since the offensive began on
February 11, Myanmar troops have swept through Karen territory opposite
Umphang district of Tak province, sending at least 7,000 more refugees into
Thailand, according to the Thai military.

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