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ARMED FORCES DAY OVERSHADOWED BY RE



Subject: ARMED FORCES DAY OVERSHADOWED BY RECENT UNREST


DATE=3/26/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-36036
TITLE=BURMA-POL
BYLINE=GARY THOMAS
DATELINE=BANGKOK
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  BURMA IS TO CELEBRATE ARMED FORCES DAY THURSDAY, AN 
IMPORTANT EVENT FOR RANGOON'S MILITARY GOVERNMENT.  BUT AS GARY 
THOMAS REPORTS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST BUREAU IN BANGKOK, THE 
CELEBRATION IS OVERSHADOWED BY RECENT UNREST BETWEEN THE MAJORITY
BUDDHIST AND MINORITY MUSLIM COMMUNITIES, AND SPECULATION ABOUT A
GOVERNMENT RE-ORGANIZATION. 

TEXT:  A RANGOON-BASED DIPLOMAT WHO ASKED NOT TO BE NAMED SAYS 
TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN BURMA'S LEADERSHIP IS 
LIKE WATCHING THE SOVIET UNION IN THE DAYS OF THE COLD WAR.  

JUST AS OBSERVERS OF THE SOVIET UNION WOULD TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHO
WAS UP AND WHO WAS DOWN BY THEIR PLACES ON THE PLATFORM ON MAY 
DAY, BURMA WATCHERS WILL BE SCRUTINIZING THE LINE-UP ON MARCH 
27TH, FOR SIGNS OF CRACKS IN THE RULING STATE LAW AND ORDER 
RESTORATION COUNCIL -- THE SLORC. 

AS THE DIPLOMAT PUT IT, THE RULING COUNCIL IS NOT A MONOLITH.  
ALTHOUGH GOVERNMENT-RUN MEDIA OUTLETS PORTRAY THE COUNCIL AS 
SOLIDLY UNITED, ANALYSTS SAY SOME FACTIONS  WANT BURMA TO  
IMPROVE ITS INTERNATIONAL IMAGE TO ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN 
INVESTMENT, WHILE THE HARD-LINERS WANT TO MAINTAIN A STRONG HAND 
AGAINST DISSENT. 

THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION AMONG JOURNALISTS AND DIPLOMATS 
RECENTLY ABOUT THE POSITION OF GENERAL KHIN NYUNT.  HE IS THE 
HEAD OF THE COUNTRY'S POWERFUL MILITARY INTELLIGENCE APPARATUS 
AND SECOND IN POWER ONLY TO GENERAL THAN SHWE, THE HEAD OF STATE.
KHIN NYUNT IS WIDELY SEEN AS A "LIBERAL" BY SLORC STANDARDS.  
RANGOON-BASED BURMA WATCHERS -- WHO ASKED NOT TO BE NAMED -- SAY 
THERE MAY BE A STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE HARDLINERS AND WHAT MIGHT BE 
DESCRIBED AS THE MORE PRAGMATIC FACTION IN THE COUNCIL. 

KHIN NYUNT IS CREDITED WITH INSTITUTING A NEW POLICY TOWARD THE 
WESTERN MEDIA LAST YEAR.  WESTERN REPORTERS SUDDENLY FOUND 
THEMSELVES INVITED TO RANGOON FOR MONTHLY GOVERNMENT NEWS 
CONFERENCES.  WHILE OFFICIALS OFTEN ONLY REGURGITATED STALE NEWS 
AT THESE MEETINGS, REPORTERS WERE ALLOWED TO DIRECTLY QUESTION 
THEM ON POLICY MATTERS.  REQUESTS FOR INTERVIEWS WERE QUICKLY 
GRANTED, AN UNOFFICIAL SPOKESMAN WAS MADE AVAILABLE TO FIELD 
TELEPHONED QUESTIONS FROM JOURNALISTS, AND SOME REPORTERS WERE 
ALSO GRANTED BACKGROUND BRIEFINGS.

THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THIS MEDIA POLICY WAS TAKEN OUT OF THE 
HANDS OF THE MINISTRY OF INFORMATION -- WHOSE JOB, AS SEVERAL 
JOURNALISTS HAVE SAID, IS TO WITHHOLD INFORMATION.  IT WAS GIVEN 
TO A NEW UNIT IN THE DEFENSE MINISTRY.  MOST OF THE TIME DEFENSE 
OFFICIALS HANDLING THE MEDIA POLICY WERE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE 
OFFICERS CLOSE TO KHIN NYUNT. 

BUT FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS, THE OPENNESS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED.  
THE GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN SUDDENLY FELL SILENT AND WAS 
UNAVAILABLE.  A FEW -- INFORMATION SHEETS -- WERE FAXED TO 
REPORTERS, BUT NO ONE WOULD ANSWER QUESTIONS. 

THE MURKY SITUATION IS FURTHER CLOUDED BY RECENT TROUBLES BETWEEN
THE BUDDHIST AND MUSLIM COMMUNITIES.  FOR MORE THAN A WEEK, THE 
GOVERNMENT WAS SILENT ON THE ISSUE -- AND REPORTERS COULD FIND NO
ONE WILLING TO TALK.  THE GOVERNMENT ISSUED ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 
STATEMENT TUESDAY. 

MEANWHILE, ANALYSTS SAY THEY ARE WATCHING TO SEE IF ARMY CHIEF 
GENERAL MAUNG AYE RISES IN PROMINENCE.  HE IS THE VICE-CHAIRMAN 
OF THE RULING COUNCIL, AND WIDELY PERCEIVED AS A MEMBER OF THE 
HARDLINE FACTION.   (SIGNED)

 NEB/GPT/FC/RAE