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THE GREAT GAME OF GO



                       THE GREAT GAME OF GO
 
"I would like to stress that ASEAN is a political
organization. It was not meant to be an economic grouping. We
came together because we had problems with our neighbors and
we needed to sit down and discuss them." 
 
Mahathir Mohamad ("Asiaweek", 9/May/97)
 
 
For the benefit of those who do not play Go, I have a theory
about why the US emulated SLORC's DSIF (Dept. of Shooting
Itself in the Foot) in pressing ASEAN not to admit Burma, thus
triggering the predictable G77 reaction to the Big Bully.
Washington was in fact afraid that ASEAN would not admit
Burma.
 
The theory goes like this: the United States, along with India
and ASEAN (and lots of others), is planning the long-term
strategic shape of the Asia-Pacific, and sees a strategic and
trade alliance between India and ASEAN as essential to the
Southwestern containment of China. Geographically, Burma is
the bridge between India and ASEAN -- or the barrier, if China
consolidates her grip. 
 
Seen from China's perspective, Burma is the way to the Indian
Ocean, both commercially, for land-locked Yunnan, and
strategically.  Talk to Indian or Chinese diplomats and they
will gush about the warm relations between their two
countries, and how the Cold War is over. But talk to the
Indian navy, and they will tell you that in a 20 or 30 year
time scale, if they were a Chinese admiral, they would want a
base here, and here, and here. And ask I.K. Gujral about
India's strategic borders. For the short period he was Foreign
Minister the "Gujral Doctrine" of befriending neighbours was
focussed to a significant degree on ASEAN. Now he's in a
position to move this policy forward. If China's domination of
Burma passed a critical point (whatever that point might be),
the potential links between India and ASEAN would be
considerably reduced, and China would have won a decisive
strategic and commercial advantage. 
 
So there you are. The Great Game of Go.  
 
 
David Arnott, Geneva 10/May/97