Burma's Army Keeps Its Grip <the Wa

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Subject: Burma's Army Keeps Its Grip <the Washington Post: 05/18/97>

                       Burma's Army
                       Keeps Its Grip

                       Embattled Opposition Could
                       Be Targeted Anew After
                       Regional Group's Meeting

                       By R. Jeffrey Smith
                       Washington Post Staff Writer
                       Sunday, May 18 1997; Page A18
                       The Washington Post

                       The police captain at the first checkpoint on the
road
                       leading to the home of 1991 Nobel Peace Prize
                       winner Aung San Suu Kyi was unyielding as he and
                       nearly a dozen colleagues blocked the path of a taxi
                       and insisted that "foreigners are not allowed to
                       visit"
                       her walled compound.

                       When an American visitor with an appointment to
                       see Suu Kyi at her home, less than a mile away,
                       asked why, the captain -- who gave his name as
                       Thein -- would only say, again and again: "Because
                       of the order."

                       Thirty-five years after seizing control of this
                       country, and seven years after annulling democratic
                       elections won by Suu Kyi's political party, the
                       Burmese military regime is accustomed to issuing
                       orders without providing explanations. Many citizens
                       here -- after looking around for spies of the
                       government -- charge that its decisions are
                       arbitrary,
                       corrupt or inept and can be carried out with lethal
                       brutality. As a result, they say, its leaders remain
                       widely hated and greatly feared.

                       Despite the public's animosity, and the growing
                       hostility of  the Clinton administration, however,
                       the
                       military's grip on power in this Southeast Asian
                       nation of 48 million shows no signs of slackening.
                       In
                       fact, the generals may even be getting stronger due
                       to new repressive measures instituted in the last

                       seven months against Suu Kyi and her supporters.

                       Hundreds of university students have been jailed
                       since student protests against government education
                       policies and police tactics flared briefly last
                       December, effectively decapitating the student
                       movement, according to several diplomats.
                       Universities, which have been a crucible of
                       anti-government sentiment in Burma since 1920,
                       were abruptly shut that month with no date set for
                       reopening.

                       Separately, a fierce offensive by as many as
                       100,000 troops since February has routed insurgent
                       forces allied with the Karen National Union, an
                       ethnically based party in Karen state, east of the
                       capital. That party, until its repression in 1995,
                       played a key role in opposing the military regime.

                       In the last year, the military junta here has
                       persuaded a half-dozen
                       other ethnic minorities that controlled vast areas
                       in northern and western Burma
                       to sign cease-fire agreements by promising them
                       more autonomy and -- according to several Western
                       diplomats -- permitting them to cultivate and refine
 a
                       substantial portion of the opium gum that winds up
                       on U.S. streets as heroin.

                       In addition, the military has jailed as many as 300
                       members of the National League for Democracy,
                       the chief opposition party and the platform for Suu
                       Kyi's activities, since last summer, including
                       several
                       of her close personal aides.

                       Win Thein U, for example, was sentenced to 14
                       years in prison last year for having arranged a
                       meeting between Suu Kyi and some farmers to
                       discuss the poor rice harvest and for having helped
                       an American television reporter interview a victim
                       of
                       torture. Suu Kyi's press secretary, Aye Win U, also
                       has been imprisoned without trial.

                       Suu Kyi, the charismatic daughter of the architect
of
                       Burma's independence from the British in 1948, has
                       been blocked from making any public speeches
                       since November. She also has been forced to restrict
                       her movements outside the compound since
                       hundreds of men in civilian garb were allowed to
                       pass through a government cordon that month to
                       attack her motorcade, smash its windows and beat
                       up many of her supporters. No arrests were made in
                       the attack.

                       Largely because of U.S. government complaints
                       about the regime, some visiting Americans are
                       subjected to extraordinary scrutiny by plainclothes
                       men who ask where they are going and whom they
                       represent -- at the airport, on the street and in
                       hotel
                       lobbies. Photographs are taken of those who try to
                       see Suu Kyi, drivers are questioned, and those seen
                       engaging in conversation with an American
                       sometimes are subjected to more detailed police
                       interrogation.

                       Interviews with dozens of people during a week of
                       traveling in Burma suggested that public discontent
                       is heightened by the country's economic failures.

                       The government's statistics indicate the economy's
                       growth rate has been falling steadily since changes
                       were introduced in 1992 to move the country away
                       from socialism toward a more market-oriented
                       system.

                       Inflation exceeds 30 percent, defense expenditures
                       reportedly consume as much as 50 percent of the
                       budget, and corruption and inefficiency are rife at
                       hundreds of large state-owned corporations or
                       private firms controlled by senior military
                       officers.
                       Without striking a deal with such a firm, or handing
                       over at least a 5 percent commission to a uniformed
                       officer, it is virtually impossible to invest here,
                       according to a half-dozen foreign businessmen.

                       Conditions outside this capital are stark. "They are
                       basically losing a generation," said a diplomat.
"Their
                       infant mortality and life expectancy rates are as
bad
                       as you might find in the worst nations of Africa."

                       But the armed forces have prospered since 1988,
                       when the State Law and Order Restoration Council
                       was formed to bring military officials into a more
                       direct governing role. The number of troops, then

                       186,000, has doubled. Everywhere, the council's
                       facilities are the most modern and well tended,
                       including an elaborate museum here with displays
                       touting achievements of each of the country's
                       regional military commanders.

                       To stem a grave shortage of foreign currency and
                       build up its domestic manufacturing industry, the

                       government last summer banned all imports of
                       nonessential goods -- creating what several
                       businessmen described as a brisk under-the-counter
                       trade.

                       But the measure did little to promote the creation
of
                       factories in this overwhelmingly agricultural
nation,
                       with the result that few up-to-date consumer goods
                       are on display. Only a few construction cranes dot
                       the skyline of the capital, a city of 3 million to 4
                       million people with a decrepit, faded air that
                       contrasts sharply with the modern bustle of
                       neighboring Asian capitals.

                       The Clinton administration last month banned most

                       American investment in Burma because of the
                       government's failure to thwart the drug trade.
                       But with few American goods in evidence -- other
                       than
                       Coke, Pepsi, Budweiser beer, and Lucky Strike and
                       Salem cigarettes -- and few joint ventures with
                       American firms outside the oil and gas sector, no
                       one believes the sanctions will cause much
                       immediate harm to the Burmese economy.

                       Many do say the publicity Washington's action has
                       generated will discourage some foreign firms that
are subject
                       to consumer boycotts at home from investing here,
and may
                       further discourage foreign tourism. Since the U.S.
sanctions
                       announcement, the value of the local currency has
fallen
                       nearly 8 percent against the dollar on the black
market.

                       "The sanctions are good, but they are not enough,"
                       said a university student, who asked that his name
                       be withheld because his family has been harassed
                       for advocating democracy. He complained that other
                       nations have not put similar pressure on the regime,
                       a view echoed here by others interviewed on the
                       street.

                       But many diplomats say that activists here are
naive,
                       and that there is little reason to expect the regime
                       will substantially alter its hard-line policies
under
                       foreign pressure. "Too many generals are making
                       too much money," said one envoy.

                       There appears to be a consensus among Western
                       diplomats here that as bad as Suu Kyi's personal
                       situation is now, it may become even more grim
                       after a decision on Burmese membership in the
                       Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a regional
                       trading group that could formally decide the issue
                       as
                       early as July. Many diplomats see the military's
                       recent
                       actions as having been relatively restrained by
                       a desire to avoid embarrassing its ASEAN neighbors
                       on the eve of the vote.

                       "If they get in, they will likely lock her up
again," a
                       senior diplomat said.

                        ? Copyright 1997 The Washington Post Company

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