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THE BURMA DILEMMA



The Burma Dilemma

                         By Peter W. Rodman

                         Thursday, May 29 1997; Page A23
                         The Washington Post 

                         The Clinton administration's economic sanctions
against Burma
                         have been criticized as a cop-out by human-rights
advocates for
                         whom China is the target most deserving of
challenge. Burma is a
                         tiny country, and its heavy-handed military junta,
the State Law
                         and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), has no defenders
                         (including this writer). Therefore it was an easier
target to go
                         after. China got a pass.

                         Whatever the merits of that debate, there is another
                         China-Burma connection that is even more interesting.

                         Burma, as the West isolates it, is rapidly
developing closer ties
                         with China. Political, economic, military and
intelligence links
                         between the two are expanding. China is wooing
Burma, with a
                         likely aim of achieving naval access to the Bay of
Bengal and
                         Indian Ocean -- a quantum leap in China's strategic
position in
                         Asia.

                         In June 1994 Japanese sources reported that China had
                         completed construction of radar bases on Burma's
two islands in
                         the Indian Ocean -- Great Coco and Little Coco --
which are on
                         lease to China. Work was also about to begin on a port.

                         In January 1996, SLORC Chairman Gen. Than Shwe visited
                         Beijing, where he and Chinese President Jiang Zemin
had "warm
                         and friendly" talks reflecting their "extensive
consensus on major
                         regional and international issues."

                         In April 1996 Gen. Zhang Wannian, vice chairman of
China's
                         Central Military Commission, paid a six-day visit
to Burma and
                         hailed the "good-neighborly friendship" between the two
                         countries.

                         In October 1996 Gen. Zhang invited Gen. Maung Aye, vice
                         chairman of SLORC, for a return visit to Beijing.
Premier Li
                         Peng received him and praised the expansion of military
                         exchanges between China and Burma.

                         The Far Eastern Economic Review reported early this
year that
                         Gen. Maung Aye's October visit produced a concrete
agreement
                         to expand military cooperation. China is to train
300 Burmese air
                         force and naval officers and provide additional
staff places in
                         Chinese staff colleges. The two sides pledged to
exchange
                         intelligence on threats to their respective
countries. China is also
                         to provide "fiscal assistance" to Burma, which
could mean
                         weapons supplies at "friendship prices."

                         All this is one big reason why our friends in the
Association of
                         Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) disagree with the
policy of
                         isolating Burma and are eager to bring Burma into
their group --
                         to counter the Chinese attempt to suborn it as a
military ally.

                         The West's sanctions on Burma are thus a great
strategic boon to
                         China. The law of unintended consequences is at
work here, as
                         in so many other instances where Americans seek
moral ends
                         without all that much care as to the practical effects.

                         The writer, a former White House and State
Department official,
                         is director of national security programs at the
Nixon Center for
                         Peace and Freedom and a senior editor of National
Review.