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Tough decision for Asean ministers



from altsean@xxxxxxxxxx

The Star [Malaysia]
Friday, May 30, 1997

Tough decision for Asean ministers

Focus 

Asean foreign ministers meet tomorrow to decide on Myanmar, Laos and
Cambodia's pending membership in the grouping amid protests from several
countries over Yangon's entry. HARPAJAN SINGH looks at the issues and
problems the ministers have to tackle in making their decision. 

ALL eyes will be on Kuala Lumpur tomorrow when Asean foreign ministers
meet to decide Myanmar's entry date into the grouping, together with
Cambodia and Laos. 

This is the second time in two months that the Asean ministers are
meeting informally to decide on the thorny issue of Myanmar's membership
? a move that has drawn a lot of criticism from the United States and
European Union. 

The question is whether Asean ministers will come up with something
concrete this time or end up inconclusively again as they did in New
Delhi last month. 

Two sets of theories have been floated by analysts. One theory is that
the ministers will make a "weak" recommendation to the leaders that the
three be brought in before the informal leaders summit in December. 

The other is that the ministers will recommend a date, possibly July,
with a qualifying clause that the three countries must by then tie up
the loose ends.

But what exactly are the ministers looking for when they meet tomorrow? 

According to Asean secretary-general Datuk Ajit Singh, the ministers
will look at the preparations and technical report prepared by his
secretariat and decide whether they should set a date for the inclusion
of the three countries. 

The technical report looks at the physical preparations and networks set
up by the three states to handle Asean affairs besides the signing of
important agreements. 

Countries seeking full membership have to sign five agreements which
include the document on Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (Zopfan)
and the Treaty of Amity and Co-operation (TAC) which urges signatories
to exercise restraint in handling of disputes. 

The other agreements are economic, relating to the Asean Free Trade 
Area (Afta). 

The next criteria is the prospective countries' participation in Afta
where they have to submit their respective product lists. 

Myanmar and Laos have done that. Apparently Cambodia is the one
thatneeds until October to submit one. 

According to Asean officials, Cambodia seems to be the one which may end
up facing technical hitches rather than Myanmar. Phnom Penh has been
reluctant to get a ratification from its parliament for Afta agreements. 

"As far as the question of stability is concerned, you cannot hold this
against Myanmar when the situation in Cambodia appears to be more tense
in the wake of the rivalry between the two ruling parties," an Asean
delegate pointed out. 

But then again, the inclusion of Myanmar could be deferred technically
if any one of the three countries are not ready as the ministers could
fall back on the decision of their leaders last year in Jakarta that the
countries be admitted simultaneously. 

The ministers are also aware of other consequences if they were to delay
the entry of the three countries beyond the July Asean Ministerial
Meeting (AMM). 

For one, the grouping can then forget about unveiling its new Asean-10
logo when the Asean 30th anniversary celebrations kick off on Aug 8. 

It is common knowledge that Asean has circulated the logo to countless
companies and authorities which intend to use it on their projects,
commemorative stamps and at the celebrations itself. 

Secondly, the Asean Economic Ministerial Meeting in Cebu recently has
already decided to give the three prospective new members 10 years to
accede to Afta deadlines by the year 2008. 

That decision would mean that the three states would have to join Afta
by Jan 1 next year. And that can only be done if they are admitted
earlier, so that they could sit in the next AEM in October where their
product lists could be formally accepted. 

Thirdly, it would not reflect very well on Asean to delay Myanmar's
entry when the grouping had put up a real fight against critics calling
for sanctions and for Asean to isolate Myanmar until its military regime
corrected its human rights record. 

For almost a year since Yangon submitted its application to join the
grouping, Asean faced caustic debates and criticism not only from
Western countries, but also from human rights and non-governmental
organisations back home. 

Last month, the United States imposed a ban on new investments in
Myanmar and hoped that other countries, namely Asean states, would
follow with sanction to pressure the State Law and Order Restoration
Council (SLORC) in Yangon to address its human rights record. 

The Washington ban came just after Asean foreign ministers held their
inconclusive informal session in New Delhi last month to decide on the
membership of the three countries. 

The West has time and again questioned Asean's policy of constructive
engagement and its resolve to bring about changes in Myanmar through
economic co-operation after admitting Yangon into Asean. 

While Asean had fought back hard and loud to protect the effectiveness
of its policy, the question is whether it will show its resolve tomorrow
to go ahead with its decision to admit Myanmar after a year of saying it
will. 

But Cambodians now appear confident that the three states will only be
admitted later in the year. On Wednesday, reports quoted a senior
Cambodian official as saying that Phnom Penh would be admitted at the
end of the year. 

On May 12, Cambodian opposition leader Sam Rainsy predicted Asean would
reject his country's application for full membership this time citing
the political crisis in the country which has prompted fears of
violence. 

Relations between the two main coalition partners ? the royalist
Funcinpec party and the Cambodian People's Party (CPP) ? are at their
lowest since the four-year-old coalition government was formed. 

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim denied any delay in the
process of admitting the three, saying Asean's decision was consistent
in that the three would be admitted by the December summit. 

Foreign Minister Datuk Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said the decision to admit
Yangon was entirely up to Asean ? in response to Japanese Prime Minister
Ryutaro Hashimoto's remarks that Myanmar's entry into Asean could be
interpreted as a gesture of support for SLORC. 

An Asean senior official pointed out that some Asean diplomats felt the
three countries should be brought in after the AMM to prevent any lash
back that Asean may face from its dialogue partners attending the Asean
Regional Forum and Post-Ministerial Dialogue which follows the AMM. 

He said the foreign ministers would also look at other sensitivities and
decide what sort of impact a decision to admit Myanmar in July would
have on the AMM where the EU, Japan, Australia and the US will be
present. 

"They will also decide whether Asean should have a separate session with
US Secretary of State Madgeline Albright who will be attending the AMM
on her first trip to this part of the world since her appointment a few
months ago. 

"There are views that perhaps the Asean foreign ministers should have a
separate constructive meeting with the US over the sanctions against
Myanmar and Yangon's pending membership in Asean," he added. 

What the ministers decide tomorrow will have a large bearing on
Myanmar's future. 

But more importantly, it will reflect Asean's integrity and decisiveness
? which critics have questioned following the grouping's failure to set
an entry date for the prospective new members for almost a year.