ASEAN's Anniversary Present

[soewin@xxxxxxx]

>From The Japan Times: Editorial (5 June 1997)

ASEAN's Anniversary Present

This summer, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations wilt celebrate its
30th birthday. The seven member states last weekend decided to commemorate
the occasion - and realize the founders' dream of establishing an
all-inclusive regional organization by admitting Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.
The effects of the controversial decision have not yet been felt; some maybe
severe. ASEAN could pay a price in the short term, but if the -organization
makes good on its promise to "constructively engage" the new members, ASEAN
may become the force for regional peace and prosperity it was designed to be. 

Each of the three candidates has problems. ASEAN holds at-most 300 meetings
each year - all in English - and there are doubts whether Laos can actively
participate in them all. Cambodia's legal and political difficulties have
prevented it from passing the legislation needed to join the organization.
And Myanmar is governed by a military junta that has scant concern for the
human rights of its citizens and world opinion. Myanmar poses the greatest
challenge. There is concern that SLORC will use membership in ASEAN to
rehabilitate its international image and use ASEAN's strict adherence to the
principle of noninterference in the affairs of member states to fend off
demands for political change. Ms. Aung Sun Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize
laureate, has warned that admission into ASEAN might make SLORC "more
obdurate and repressive than ever."

ASEAN ministers said they do not consider applicants on the basis of their
internal affairs, which must be gratifying to the junta. But there is every
reason for ASEAN to engage SLORC and get it to moderate its behavior.
ASEAN's image will be~ tarnished if it ignores the junta's misdeeds.
Although pressure from the United States backfired, ASEAN members have been
put on notice that they will he judged by their ability to bring SLORC into
line with international norms. Allegedly the U.S. notified ASEAN members
that it might he forced to downgrade the ASEAN Regional Forum as a result of
Myanmar's membership. Although the Japanese government welcomed ASEAN's
expansion, it too cautioned that "it `viii not tolerate Myanmar using
membership as a hideout for oppression of its people."

ASEAN has its own reasons to get SLORC to change its ways. In recent months,
Myanmar's Muslims have been the victims of a series of attacks that should
alarm Malaysia and Indonesia, countries with large Muslim populations of
their own. Thailand now offers refuge to thousands of members of the Karen
ethnic group, forced to flee after attacks by the government. Government
forces have even crossed into Thai territory during their offensives. Thai
soldiers squared off recently against Myanmar's military over a disputed
islet in the Mekong River. And cozy relations between generals in Myanmar
and international drug dealers have spilled over into Thailand: Payoffs and
corruption now blacken the Thai judiciary's reputation. 

ASEAN is also thinking strategically. Inviting SLORC into the organization
is designed to counter China's growing influence within Myanmar and
throughout the region. A unified Southeast Asian bloc is the best
counterweight to China's growing power. Without Myanmar, that balance will
come up short. While much of the world has treated SLORC like an
international pariah, China has seized the opportunity and courted the
-junta, providing it with economic aid and military supplies needed to
consolidate its grip on power. Some analysts believe that Chinese support
has "effectively annulled" the West's attempts to change SLORC's behavior. 

The junta could take last weekend's decision as a sign that all is well and
to continue with politics as usual. That would be a mistake. ASEAN members
have every reason to invite Myanmar to join, but SLORC needs to understand
that it has not been pardoned, it is on probation. 

Enlargement of ASEAN is not an end in itself. It is but a means to the
realization of the organization's ambitious agenda, one that includes the
creation of a free-trade area and a regionwide security framework. Both
require stability within member nations and peaceful relations between them.
ASEAN can help Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar develop more open and prosperous
economies and begin the political reconciliation that is needed. That does
not mean the group has to abandon its principle of nonintervention. It does
require a willingness on the part of member governments to seize the
opportunity to start anew.

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