News from India (r)

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                       ASEAN AND MYANMAR
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By V. Jayanth

DAMNED  if they  do,  damned if  they don't.   that was the
dilemma  of  the  Association of  South-East  Asian Nations
(ASEAN),   when  its Foreign  Ministers  met last  month to
decide  on  the  admission  of  Cambodia,   Laos  and  more
important,   Myanmar,  previously Burma,   into their fold.

The  U.S.  and the European Union had conveyed their strong
feelings  on Myanmar's entry.  Washington announced limited
economic  sanctions on the military junta in Yangon to make
its position clear.

ASEAN  is busy  preparing for  its 30th  annual ministerial
meeting  to be held in July  in Kuala Lumpur.  The regional
grouping, which has acquired considerable international and
economic   clout,   will  also   be  celebrating  its  30th
anniversary by the year-end.

When  the seven Foreign Ministers met  in Kuala Lumpur at a
special get-together on May 31,  the admission of the three
countries  was  the  main  agenda.  The  Foreign  Ministers
considered  two options to admit  the three either in July,
or  defer it till  December for the  30th anniversary bash.
Their  leaders gave a mandate  last November that all three
must be admitted simultaneously.

The  Malaysian Foreign Minister, Mr. Abdullah Ahmed Badawi,
who  chairs the ASEAN Standing Committee this year,  argued
that  there was no  purpose putting off  the admission till
December.   "It will be much better  for both sides of they
join  us immediately.  We can talk to them better once they
are inside", he told journalists after last month's special
meeting. He was only reflecting the ASEAN's known policy of
'constructive engagement' with the Myanmar junta also known
as  the State  Law and  Order Restoration  Council (SLORC).

Implied  in that suggestion was that the 'engagement' could
be positive only if MYANMAR was encouraged to integrate and
interact  with  ASEAN fully  and on  an equal  footing.  By
deferring a decision,  the latter thought it would only put
off the SLORC and worsen the situation.

ASEAN  is aware of  Washington's and the  E.U.'s concern on
Myanmar,   but  it  is  committed  to  a  policy  of  "non-
interference  in  the  internal  affairs"  of  any country.

Hence it is prepared to take on the West and tell its major
trade  and investment  partners that  admitting Myanmar and
the  rest is a totally "internal,  regional matter," As Mr.
Abdullah explained,  "it was a decision in the interests of
the region and its continued stability."

Sources  in Yangon confirmed  that the past  two months had
perhaps  been the most tension-filled  period in the recent
past,  after the pro-democracy students' clashes in Myanmar
last year.

Officials  in Thailand,  familiar with neighboring Myanmar,
said  that the economy was on the brink.  "It is not in our
interests  or of ASEAN to let Myanmar slip into an economic
crisis  and drive it  closer to China.  If  we had given up
their  cause, that is what would have happened", he argued.
though  SLORC  was flaunting  fantastic figures  of foreign
investments  to prove  that everything was  all right,  not
much of that promised cake was delivered. A majority of the
investors   held   back  because   of  fears   and  doubts.

ASEAN   MEMBER-NATIONS  ARE  IN  A  DILEMMA  OVER  ALLOWING
MYANMAR, NOW RULED BY A MILITARY JUNTA, TO JOIN THEIR FOLD,
WITH  THE  WEST AND  THE PRO-DEMOCRACY  MOVEMENT PROTESTING
AGAINST THE MOVE.

SLORC   was   flaunting   fantastic   figures   of  foreign
investments  to prove  that everything was  all right,  not
much of that promised cake was delivered. A majority of the
investors   held   back  because   of  fears   and  doubts.

The  continued depreciation of the Burmese currency,  kyat,
was  another cause for worry.  Because of the twin exchange
rates, foreign investors could not repatriate their profits
as  that would be  dismal.  Though the  kyat was officially
valued at six to an American dollar,  it was selling in the
open  market  at  185  to  a  dollar  by  the  end  of May.

The  pro-democracy movement led by the Nobel-laureate,  Ms.
Aung  San  Suu  Kyi,   appealed to  ASEAN  to  put  off the
admission  of  Myanmar.   It  wanted  ASEAN  to  exert  its
influence  on  the  junta  to  open  a  dialogue  with  the
political  parties and  to prepare  for the  restoration of
democracy before admitting Yangon.

The  exiled student  groups under  the All  Burma Students'
Union  umbrella,  and Alternate ASEAN  a network of NGOs in
the region added their voice to Ms, Suu Kyi's. But that was
all  in vain.  As a students' union spokesman argued "ASEAN
put its economic and strategic interest first, ahead of the
interests  of the Burmese people.  We cannot blame them for
that,  but they will soon regret that decision, because the
junta  has  no mandate  and  is not  a  permanent fixture."

As  he saw it,  the issue of Myanmar's admission into ASEAN
had  become a kind of a  psychological war between Ms.  Suu
Kyi and the West on the one side,  and SLORC and South-East
Asian Governments on the other. The ASEAN decision was seen
by  academics  and  analysts  in  the  region  as  a  major
challenge   that  the   regional  grouping   had  taken  on
voluntarily.   After  building up  so much  credibility and
clout in the Asia-Pacific and international communities, it
was  risking that reputation by  admitting both Myanmar and
Cambodia.   The  question  is  whether  ASEAN  will  emerge
unscathed from this challenge.  Could it prove to the world
that  its policy  of engagement  with the  junta can indeed
help improve the situation in Myanmar and bring some relief
to  its  suffering  people?  Would  the  diplomatic,  soft-
speaking,  economic-oriented ASEAN nudge SLORC to undertake
political  reforms at  least i a  limited way  so that some
democratic framework is in place?

An  analyst in  Bangkok,  Mr.   Thanin Surakhit,   said the
political, economic and strategic significance of admitting
Myanmar  right now far outweighed even the potential of new
problems  with Washington and Brussels.  ASEAN was prepared
to  take on a hostile U.S.  attitude of only to ensure that
Myanmar  was finally and fully  integrated with the rest of
South-East  Asia and out of China's orbit.  For the region,
this was of paramount importance.

Another  reason he  cited for the  urgency was  the need to
weave Myanmar into the Mekong Basin Development Cooperation
programme.   Funding  for  any  infrastructure  development
project  in  Myanmar would  be a  major problem  because of
Western   influence   over   the   international  financial
institutions.   But  if  that country  was  brought  into a
subregional programme,  the Asian Development Bank or other
agencies,   would  be  more  flexible  in  financing  major
projects   that  were   about  to   be  wrapped   up  soon.

The  SLORC's major fear in initiating political reforms was
vindictive   action  and   fault  finding   by  any  future
democratically elected Government. "The corruption charges,
the  mismanagement of  the economy  and the  suppression of
political   and  human  rights   can  provide  any  elected
government material for witch-hunting and persecution," the
analyst noted.

Therefore, SLORC is battling to finalise a new Constitution
that   would  future   administration.   By   adopting  the
Indonesian model, the junta wants to ensure a  "socio-
political  role"  for  the  army,   along  with  the 
security and defence commitments.

That  is exactly what  the pro-democracy movement rejected.
It  wants  a clearly  defined  defence role  for  the armed
forces and a popular,  civilian government to be elected by
the people.  Addressing the fears of the army top brass Ms,
Suu Kyi said,  "I would think it is quite natural that some
of  them should fear that  a democratic government would in
some  way  persecute them,   or  allow others  to persecute
them."

It  will take a lot of time  for the junta to come to terms
with reality and accept a transition to civilian rule.  Ms.
Suu  Kyi has a long battle to wage and has no government in
this  region on her side.  But fight she will,  even if the
people  cannot openly come out in her support for some time
to come.

Mr.  Jusuf Wanadi,  Wanadi, Chairman,  Centre for Strategic
and  International Studies in Jakarta, has a suggestion. He
wants  ASEAN to take Western criticism of Myanmar seriously
"In  their  (west)  eyes Burma's  SLORC  lacks  decency and
legitimacy.   Burma's SLORC  lacks decency  and legitimacy.
Burma's  membership will result  in a heap  of criticism on
ASEAN."

He  says ASEAN should  present a "road  map" for Myanmar so
that it can fully integrate with the region.  The stage has
come,  he argues,  not to think of this "road map" as being
in "interference in internal affairs" but to treat it as an
imperative to bring that country back to normal. Will ASEAN 
perform that task?

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