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THE PLOT THICKENS IN RANGOON



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> THE PLOT THICKENS IN RANGOON
> 29.7.97/THE NATION
> CHAO-TZANG YAWNGHWE
>
> MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CHIEF KHIN KYUNT HAS PROFITED FROM THE
> ATTEMPTED ASSASSINATION OF HIS RIVAL, TIN OO, IN THE ONGOING
> BATTLE WITHIN THE FACTION-RIDDEN SLORC, REPORTS CHAO-TZANG
> YAWNGHWE.
>
> The jockeying for the political high ground in the "war of
> succession" is going Gen Khin Nyunt's way. It seems the military
> intelligence chief and first secretary of the State Law and Order
> Restoration Council (Slorc) is the smartest of the lot, and it is
> likely that he will - if he plays his cards right - leave his
> rivals way behind.
>
> The recent round of applause from a significant number of
> non-Burman "ceasefire" armies, lauding Khin Nyunt's press
> briefing in connection with the explosion at Second Secretary Tin
> Oo's house which killed his daughter, must be seen as a brilliant
> stroke of a master strategist.
>
> Khin Nyunt has been able to make use of the bomb explosion aimed
> at his rival Tin Oo (and an ally of Deputy Chairman Maung Aye),
> to his advantage - killing several birds with one stone, so to
> speak.
>
> First, he has been able to deflect blame away from himself for
> the explosion; second, blame the bombing on the opposition
> National League of Democracy, or its external supporters -the
> Americans in particular; third, compel Tin Oo and Maung Aye to
> accept his explanation (no matter how unconvincing); and lastly,
> show his rivals that he has the backing of "ceasefire" armies,
> that is, the armed non-Burman forces which together represents a
> quite formidable fighting force.
>
> The beauty of Khin Nyunt's move is that it has put his rivals in
> a tight spot, forcing them to choose between two untenable
> alternatives: either to accept his explanation (hence absolving
> him or his supporters from blame), or to strike back hastily, an
> action which has little chance of success given their lack of
> preparation. Intra-military politics, like party politics,
> involves jockeying for power between factions - but it is more
> dangerous in the military since the factions involved are all
> armed. The endorsement of non-Burman "ceasefire" armies of Khin
> Nyunt's press briefing is particularly significant. It represents
> Khin Nyunt's skill as a politician - a skill which most Slorc
> generals, particularly Maung Aye - are hugely deficient in. His
> stamping upon the Kawthoolie (Karen) flag a few months ago has
> shown him up as a political novice.
>
> According to sources in Shan state, Khin Nyunt has made himself
> very accessible to leaders of the "ceasefire" armies. It is
> reported former Shan state army leaders and Kanyod, who defected
> from Khun Sa, are able to personally meet Khin Nyunt whenever
> they request a meeting.
>
> He has also showered them with business licences concessions,
> even funds. As a result, almost all leaders of "ceasefire" armies
> have become Khin Nyunt's clients. Their endorsement of Khin
> Nyunt's move to deflect blame for the bombing from his faction or
> allies can be seen in part as a repayment on their part for Khin
> Nyunt's lucrative patronage and protection.
>
> Also, sources close to "ceasefire" leaders have explained to
> their contacts in Thailand - to mollify Karen guerilla leader Gen
> Bo Mya and other pro-democratic forces -that their endorsement of
> Khin Nyunt is a tactical move, and that they are not in the
> slightest taken in by Khin Nyunt's explanation or version of the
> explosion.
>
> Ceasefire leaders are apparently aware of the battle of
> succession being waged, overtly for now, in Rangoon. Khin Nyunt
> is viewed by the non-Burman military leaders as being the most
> "liberal," comparatively speaking, and the most politically
> sophisticated. Most of them - except Khun Sa, the former &an
> heroin kingpin - distrust Maung Aye, a rising star and believed
> to be Khin Nyunt's main rival and potential nemesis.
>
> It is widely believed that Khun Sa is Maung Aye's man, since it
> was Maung Aye, who brought Khun Sa "into the legal fold". It is
> widely known among the Shans that Maung Aye, while stationed in
> Kengtung, established close contact with businessmen closely
> linked to Khun Sa. (Khun Sa has, so far, not endorsed Khin
> Nyunt's press briefing.)
>
> Many Burmese observers abroad, as well some American diplomats
> believe that although Ne Win has allegedly endorsed Maung Aye as
> No 1, slated to replace Gen Than Shwe as, the military strongman,
> it is unlikely that the latter will step down any time soon.
>
> Than Shwe is unambitious and would personally not mind stepping
> down. However, some military factions - especially intelligence
> factions - are reportedly nervous about Maung Aye becoming the
> head of Slorc. It is believed in those circles that Maung Aye is
> too ambitious and inflexible. As such, the consensus among
> observers of Rangoon politics is that Than Shwe will not step
> down as yet - he will be prevented from doing so by his
> supporters. Than Shwe's supporters and Khin Nyunt's, especially
> those in the intelligence service, are now believed to be drawing
> closer in preparation for a showdown soon, or when Ne Win dies.
> It is believed Than Shwe will step down only after the alliance
> between Khin Nyunt and his supporters is well-established and/or
> it is strong enough to meet challenges from within.
>
> Although many observers are of the opinion that there will be a
> bloody showdown shortly after Ne Win dies - if not sooner - there
> is a case to be made that such a bloody scenario might be
> averted. Burmese culture is such that those who are "inferior"
> always submit to those they regard as "superior".
>
> Moreover, as a veteran analyst of the Burmese military maintains,
> Burman military officers are generally  aggressive only toward
> those who are unarmed. They will more likely submit to an armed
> rival if they judge him to be strong or "superior". It seems that
> Khin Nyunt is apparently well aware of this Burman trait, and has
> made the move - successfully, it seems - to occupy the political
> high ground by establishing his "superiority". Much hinges on
> whether or not Tin Oo and Maung Aye buy Khin Nyunt's explanation
> for the bomb explosion.
>
> If they accept Khin Nyunt's explanation, or are compelled to do
> so (regardless of its accuracy or validity), it is likely that
> military factions which had hitherto supported Maung Aye and Tin
> Oo will interpret this as a sign of Khin Nyunt "superiority" over
> Maung Aye. It is likely, therefore, that they will rush to join
> Khin Nyunt's bandwagon. Thus, a bloody show down will probably by
> averted.
>
> As the situation stands, it would seem that Khin Nyunt's rivals
> have been outflanked. Their inability to "avenge" the death of
> Tin Oo's daughter and their acceptance of Khin Nyunt's rather
> unconvincing explanation for the bombing at Tin 00'8 house,
> indicate that their position is not as strong as most people
> thought it was. At any rate, their acceptance of Khin Nyunt's
> explanation shows how skilled Khin Nyunt is at confronting his
> opponents and rivals.

--
Bis dann also, Euer, //Sao Hpa Han//

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