ASEAN at the cross-roads

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ASEAN AT THE CROSSROADS
The Hindu (3/8/97)
By V. Jayanth
 
Thirty years ago, when a Southeast Asian regional 
grouping was launched, there were not many takers. 
India and the then Ceylon were invited to join but 
they politely turned down the offer.


It was meant to be a coming together for the survival 
of the last five countries which has suffered from the wars and the
communist virus that was threatening to splinter them. Indonesia, the
Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore floated the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations on August 8, 1967.
 
In three decades, it has emerged as a powerful economic co-operation
grouping that now includes nine countries. Brunei Darussalam, a Sultanate
which become free from the British rule, joined the group in 1984. Vietnam
was admitted in 1995 and just last week, Laos and Myanmar (Burma) entered
the fold. The original vision of the founder was to achieve an ASEAN-10,
embracing the whole of the Southeast Asia. That could have materialised
but for the unfortunate developments in Cambodia. ASEAN decided to put off
Cambodia's entry but it was recognised as a potential and future member
perhaps joining later this year.
 
Asean has not only consolidated the region but established close links
with its major trade and investment partners from the US and Canada in the
far Pacific, to Australia and New Zealand down south, Japan, China and
South Korea in the Northeast and India in the west. By gradually expanding
its horizons, ASEAN created a regional forum four years ago to discuss
politico-security issues and also launched a post-ministerial conference
much earlier, to engage a growing number of "dialogue partners". That
exchange has proved useful.
 
As it gets ready to celebrate its 30th anniversary, ASEAN finds itself at
the crossroads. There is so much to achieve now, as it did when the
grouping was set up. The integration of its new members and bringing them
to internationally recognised norms of political and economic functioning
are now its major challenges.
 
Asean has voluntarily, perhaps, inevitably, taken on the responsibility of
bringing back peace and stability to a strife-torn Cambodia, and more
important, restoring democracy and the rule of law in Myanmar (Burma). The
shine on the 30th anniversary celebrations has worn off already. The
sudden eruption in Cambodia on July 5-6, leading to a coup d'etat by one
of the co-Prime Minters, created a volatile situation, Cambodia was
supposed to be admitted to ASEAN on July 23 and the regions' Foreign
Ministers met in an emergency to put the decision on hold, thereby giving
themselves some credibility and teeth.
 
The annual ASEAN-related conferences were held in the resort township of
Subang Jaya from July 21 to 30. Perhaps the most satisfying development
from an ASEAN viewpoint, was the near-unanimous endorsement by the
ministerial delegations from 10 countries, besides Southeast Asia, that
ASEAN should take the initiative and play a lead role in bringing back
peace and stability in Cambodia, ensure the full implementation of the
Paris Peace Accords and pave the way or a free and fair election next
year.
 
This endorsement was possible because ASEAN had already tried to play a
role, though it was rebuffed by the co-Premier, Mr Hun Sen, now in
command. As Phnom Penh was now worried about its ASEAN membership, that
was constructed as the bargaining chip to deal with him.
 
The admission on Myanmar sparked a near-showdown. The US, Canada, the EU,
and Australia to some extent, even India expressed themselves clearly.
They wanted to see national reconciliation in Myanmar, the opening of a
dialogue with pro-democracy movement leading to a restoration of democracy
and respects or human rights. Myanmar's foreign Minister, Mr Ohn Gyaw,
tried to put up a modest defence,  but nobody was convinced by his
arguments and wanted to see more progress. ASEAN was on defensive. Its
chairman, Mr Abdullah Adawi, Malaysian Foreign Minister, explained,
"Myanmar has now become a member. We will continue to talk to them and
they also realise the obligations of the membership. Let us hope that we
will be able to bring about the necessary changes. We are convinced that
the approach should only be constructive engagement, not through
sanctions."
 
The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), security dialogue platform, had a
"fruitful exchange of views" on the key issues affecting peace and
stability. The Korean peace process, Cambodia, the dispute over the
Spartly islands and the major arms programmes of the regional countries
dominated the discussions. In a typical ASEAN style, these issues were
raised and discussed, with an engagement to disagree on sensitive issues.
And yet, Mr Badawi announced at the end of it that the ARF would move
forward from the phase of confidence-building to "preventive diplomacy" a
phrase that clearly did not appeal to China. The question remains whether
ASEAN or any of its vehicles can take on the challenging task of
preventive diplomacy, let alone dispute settlement.
 
Some differences within the ASEAN countries have begun to surface over
many an issue. They are becoming competitors among themselves in the
emerging global village. And yet, the group tries to its best to "manage
differences" and remain on course for greater regional cooperation and
integration. But the challenges are daunting. The litmus test for ASEAN
will be the way it handles Cambodia and Myanmar, not to talk of Laos and
its economy.
 
For India, it was a satisfying dialogue with ASEAN. Much has been done in
a year, but this should not be frittered away. Both the Government and
private sector must keep up the momentum. Despite the ASEAN's satisfaction
over its dialogue with India, there was hardly any mention of New Delhi's
presence in regional media. So much for the protagonists of a "low
profile". It was one of the very few which did not bother to meet the
international media.
 
It was good the Prime Minister, Mr I. K. Gujral, did not come. That would
have been too much a gesture. It was right that a Minister of State did
not lead the delegation. That would have sent a wrong signal. The Finance
Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, fitted the bill and did his job. His pitch
for APEC was a clean winner. But he should have found time to market that
to the international media which was present in strength.
 
 
ASEAN GIANTS CALL FOR CHANGE
The Economic Times (3/8/97)
 
If Malaysia and Indonesia have their way, the ASEAN will soon cease to be
a loosely-structured talking shop and become a full-fledged organization,
like the UN or NATO. The two powerful regional giants are calling for
changes in the rules that will give ASEAN the capability to move
"preventive action" rather than mere confidence building measures.

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