Tests for the ASEAN Nine

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Tests for the ASEAN Nine

As Myanmar and Laos join the group, it is rethinking its approach to diplomacy 
and economic development. 
The poorest members are a special cause for concern

By Todd Crowell and Roger Mitton / Kuala Lumpur
ASIAWEEK  8th August 97


THE LAVISH NEW SUNWAY Lagoon Resort Hotel in suburban Kuala Lumpur is a 
sprawling palace with a gaudy, pseudo-Egyptian decor and echoes of ancient 
Rome and Disneyland. Its eclecticism made it a fitting venue last week for the 
annual meeting of ASEAN's foreign ministers. Adding to the sense of 
make-believe were flags proudly displaying the group's new logo with ten rice 
stalks, representing all Southeast Asia's nations bound closely together. 
Except that the association, for the moment at least, is not that cohesive and 
doesn't even add up to ten.

What would have been the first meeting of the long-heralded ASEAN Ten turned 
into a conclave of the ASEAN Nine -- plus one non-member. The odd man out was, 
of course, Cambodia. On July 5, that country's Co-Prime Minister Hun Sen 
dispatched his partner, Norodom Ranariddh, in a violent putsch. That meant 
ASEAN had to make a tough political decision -- and quickly. On July 10, its 
foreign ministers deliberated behind closed doors in Kuala Lumpur. Vietnam 
pushed to admit Cambodia on schedule while Indonesia led the opponents of that 
notion. As usual, the view of ASEAN's biggest member prevailed: Cambodia's 
entry was postponed.

But probably not for long. ASEAN opinion has always been shaped by pragmatic 
considerations. In Phnom Penh, Hun Sen is in and Ranariddh out. In any case, 
some members privately believe the new Cambodian setup may be better since the 
previous government was, as one official put it, "hopelessly inadequate." The 
next step for the grouping is to determine if the willful Hun Sen can be 
trusted when he says he welcomes ASEAN's assistance in resolving the crisis. 
If so, then finessing a relatively quick entry for Cambodia would become 
easier. Insiders are betting that admission will occur in time for ASEAN's 
30-year commemorative summit in December, hosted by Malaysian Prime Minister 
Mahathir Mohamad. 

That the group wants Cambodia in as soon as possible is beyond doubt. After 
all, several members have committed huge investments in the country. Malaysia 
is one of the largest with $2 billion. That gives Hun Sen leverage. He can 
say: deal with me or your investments go down the tube. Japan, an ASEAN 
dialogue partner, is by far the largest aid donor to Cambodia. Says a senior 
Japanese official: "Our policy is realistic. We're committed to Cambodia, our 
interests are at stake. So our aid will continue. We don't condone or reward 
Hun Sen, but we have to deal with the people in charge." 

For ASEAN, expansion even to nine members has brought some loss of internal 
cohesion and a weakening of the group's famed penchant for consensual 
politics. "The original core of five non-communist nations [Indonesia, 
Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand] had common aims and gave 
priority to economic development and non-interference," says Mak Joon Num, 
regional strategist at the Malaysian Institute of Maritime Affairs. "That 
meant consensus could be achieved, though it was a very slow process even 
then." Brunei's admission in 1984 changed little. But Vietnam's entry in 1995 
was a watershed. The association of generally free-market economies now 
included a Marxist state, one with longstanding antagonisms with China. 

Of the two newest members, tiny Laos is likely to be absorbed with few 
difficulties. But Myanmar's induction brings a range of problems, not least 
constant criticism from Western capitals that the regional partners are not 
doing enough to tame the country's ruling junta. But ever since Yangon's 
admission was agreed upon in 1995, the developed democracies tended to do 
little more than protest loudly, largely for home consumption. Last week, for 
example, Britain sent only its No. 2 diplomat to the induction ceremony. But 
privately, most Western nations are pleased to see Myanmar inside an 
essentially free-market, Western-oriented grouping. Said a senior Japanese 
official: "What's the alternative? You want to isolate Myanmar? Drive it into 
the arms of the Chinese?"

Western foreign ministers attending made ritual protests about Myanmar's entry 
but it was a done deal by the time they arrived for the second and third parts 
of the Kuala Lumpur pow-wow: the ASEAN Regional Forum on security and the 
meeting with dialogue partners. Instead, they sparred with host Mahathir over 
his proposal to review the United Nations declaration on human rights, which 
he said had been written when the body was a much smaller club dominated by 
Western powers. Washington, vowed U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, 
would be "relentless" in opposing any bid to modify the charter.

Now that Myanmar is inside ASEAN, pressure is likely to build on Yangon's 
military leaders to tone down their repressive policies. Says analyst Mak: "It 
makes sense to get Myanmar into a group that has economic stability and 
progress as its main goal. The middle class will build up, the values will 
change and institutions will evolve." Adds Bunn Nagara of the Kuala 
Lumpur-based Geopolicy Research consultancy: "Being in ASEAN should help 
moderate the Yangon regime and may lead to it dealing with the opposition."

Malaysian Deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim, who recently advocated a change in ASEAN 
policy from "constructive engagement" to "constructive intervention," told 
Asiaweek his new line was meant to apply to Myanmar as well as Cambodia. He 
has urged Yangon's military chief to have an open dialogue with democracy 
leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whose party won the 1990 election but was prevented 
from taking office by the army. Says Anwar: "I don't think they should [have 
done] that. This is a sentiment shared by many ASEAN leaders."

Some observers believe ASEAN started to "intervene" when it sent a delegation 
to mediate the crisis in Phnom Penh. "It's basically how you define the term," 
says Mak. "If you go in and persuade people and they accept it, then that's 
not interference but persuasion." Maybe, but ASEAN certainly appeared to be 
taking a different tack with Cambodia than with Myanmar, raising talk of a 
double standard. Says former Malaysian opposition MP Fan Yew Teng: "The 
decision to postpone Cambodia's membership but to admit Myanmar confirms 
ASEAN's hypocrisy." 

Rebuttals of that view are again based on realpolitik: you deal with the 
government in power -- and the junta has held sway in Myanmar for nearly nine 
years. But in the immediate aftermath of the July coup in Phnom Penh, there 
were legitimate doubts about who was in charge and what form of government 
remained. If events continue to show Hun Sen firmly in control, goes the 
mainstream thinking in ASEAN, a Cambodia with him at the helm will be 
admitted. 

But will members stay united? ASEAN governments may insist that internal 
political and economic differences will not be allowed to produce serious 
rifts, but that is already happening and may worsen. One fear is that the 
newer members, led by Vietnam, may constitute a subgroup of "slow-track" 
nations, as distinct from the original core members, headed by Indonesia. 
"That is already happening with the tariff-reduction provisions, whereby new 
members are getting long deadline extensions," says Mak. Indeed, Vietnam, 
Myanmar and Laos are going to need a lot of help if their economies are to 
develop properly. 

But these are problems that come with expansion. In a larger context, it is 
significant that ASEAN has taken the initiative to mediate in Cambodia. The 
move underscores the enlarged stature the association has already achieved. So 
do certain less dramatic accomplishments -- such as ASEAN's central role in 
keeping once-volatile Southeast Asia largely peaceful for two decades. Also 
noteworthy is the fact that all the world's great powers -- China, Japan, the 
U.S., Russia, India and the European Union -- came to Kuala Lumpur last week. 
Perhaps that is the best single pointer to where ASEAN is today.