BURMA/SHAKEUP

[moe@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]

DATE=11/17/97

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-38100

TITLE=BURMA / SHAKEUP

BYLINE=GARY THOMAS

DATELINE=BANGKOK

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:  


INTRO:  BURMA'S RULING GENERALS CONDUCTED A PURGE OF THEIR RANKS 

THIS WEEKEND.  THEY ABOLISHED THE STATE LAW AND ORDER RESTORATION

COUNCIL AND REPLACED IT WITH A NEW BODY.  HOWEVER, AS VOA 

CORRESPONDENT GARY THOMAS REPORTS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST ASIA BUREAU 

IN BANGKOK, IT IS NOT CLEAR IF IT IS SIMPLY A COSMETIC CHANGE -- 

OR IF IT WILL MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE TO THE COUNTRY'S LONG-SUFFERING

PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT.


TEXT:  THE SHAKEUP IN BURMA'S RULING COUNCIL WAS SURPRISING, SAY 

ANALYSTS.   BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER IT SIGNALS ANY REAL 

CHANGE IN POLICY, OR IF IT IS SIMPLY A CHANGE OF NAME WITH SOME 

NEW FACES.


NEW FACES.


ON SATURDAY, IT WAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE STATE LAW AND ORDER 

RESTORATION COUNCIL HAD BEEN ABOLISHED AND REPLACED WITH A NEW 

19-MEMBER BODY, THE STATE PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL.


BUT THERE ARE NO CIVILIANS ON THE COUNCIL. THE COUNTRY'S FOUR 

MOST SENIOR GENERALS -- THAN SHWE, KHIN NYUNT, MAUNG AYE, AND TIN

OO -- REMAIN AT THE TOP OF THE HIERARCHY.  THE REST OF THE NEW 

RULING BODY IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF UNKNOWN FACES, MOST OF THEM 

REGIONAL COMMANDERS.


THE CABINET WAS ALSO REORGANIZED, WITH THAN SHWE AS BOTH PRIME 

MINISTER AND MINISTER OF DEFENSE.


A 14-MEMBER "ADVISORY COUNCIL", COMPRISED ENTIRELY OF GENERALS --

INCLUDING SOME FROM THE OLD RULING COUNCIL -- WAS ALSO NAMED.


BURMA'S RULERS MAKE THEIR DECISIONS BEHIND CLOSED DOORS

 SO THE 

REASON FOR THE SHAKEUP IS NOT CLEAR.  BUT SOME ANALYSTS, WHO 

ASKED NOT TO BE NAMED, SAY IT APPEARS THE SENIOR GENERALS WANTED 

TO ELEVATE SOME YOUNGER COMMANDERS TO THE CIRCLES OF POWER.


IT MAY ALSO BE, SAY ANALYSTS, THAT THE TOP MEN WANTED TO BREAK UP

THE MINI-EMPIRES SOME GENERALS HAD BUILT UP.  THE OLD COUNCIL HAD

BEEN IN PLACE SINCE 1988, AND SOME OF THE OLD GUARD ACCUMULATED 

CONSIDERABLE PATRONAGE POWER WITHIN THEIR MINISTRIES IN THAT 

TIME.  DIPLOMATS REPORT THAT CORRUPTION IS RAMPANT, BUT 

SUBSTANTIATING ACTUAL CASES IS DIFFICULT, IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE, IN A

COUNTRY WHERE EVERYTHING IS DONE IN SECRET.


HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT, IF ANY, ECONOMIC PRESSURE FROM THE WEST 

MIGHT HAVE HAD ON THE DECISION TO REVAMP THE GOVERNMENT IS ALSO 


UNKNOWN.  THE REPRESSION AGAINST THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT OF 

AUNG SAN SUU KYI HAS EARNED CONDEMNATION FROM WESTERN NATIONS.  

THE UNITED STATES HAS LEVELED SANCTIONS AGAINST BURMA, AND THERE 

IS CONSIDERABLE PUBLIC PRESSURE ON WESTERN BUSINESSES TO REFRAIN 

FROM ANY DEALINGS WITH THE COUNTRY'S GENERALS.


THE GOVERNMENT HAS KEPT UP THE PRESSURE ON AUNG SAN SUU KYI AND 

HER FOLLOWERS.  BUT REPORTS PERSIST OF A SPLIT IN THE NOW-DEFUNCT

COUNCIL BETWEEN HARDLINERS, WHO WANT TO TOTALLY ISOLATE AUNG SAN 

SUU KYI, AND MODERATES WHO BELIEVE IT IS TIME FOR A DIALOGUE WITH

THE OPPOSITION.  HOWEVER, ANALYSTS IN RANGOON HASTEN TO SAY THOSE

REPORTS ARE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE.


THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS OF SOME EASING OF THE PRESSURE, BUT EVEN 

THOSE SIGNALS ARE MIXED.  


  THE AUTHORITIES ALLOWED AUNG SAN SUU 

KYI'S NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY TO HOLD A PARTY CONGRESS IN 

SEPTEMBER.  HOWEVER, THE GOVERNMENT APPEARS TO MAKE UP ITS MIND 

DAY TO DAY ABOUT RESTRICTING AUNG SAN SUU KYI'S MOVEMENTS.  

SOMETIMES SHE IS ALLOWED OUT OF HER LAKEFRONT HOME IN RANGOON TO 

MEET WITH SUPPORTERS; OTHER TIMES HER MOVEMENTS ARE BLOCKED 

ALTOGETHER.


OFFICIALS OF AUNG SAN SUU KYI'S PARTY SAY THEY, TOO, ARE UNSURE 

ABOUT WHAT  THE CHANGES HERALD, AND THAT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY

JUDGMENT ABOUT WHAT THEY MEAN.  (SIGNED)


NEB/GPT/FC/KL 


17-Nov-97 6:21 AM EST (1121 UTC)