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article in Nation 03/12/97



Editorial & Opinion 

      The year that was:
      Burma's year ends as it
      started -- in chains

      Burma's opposition leader Aung San Suu
      Kyi confided to her aides early last year that
      1997 would be a year of triumph for the
      country's democracy movement. ''There will
      be a change,'' she said, meaning that the
      military, who have ruled the country for
      almost 10 years, would be gone. 

      To some extent, she was right. The ruling
      junta was dissolved in November, when the
      self-appointed military government, the
      State Law and Order Restoration Council,
      was replaced by the State Peace and
      Development Council (SPDC). 

      Many former Slorc ministers were given
      inactive positions, forced to retire or join the
      newly-established Advisory Board. But the
      Board was dissolved, and at least six
      former ministers were placed under
      investigation for corruption. 

      In another reshuffle, which took place
      recently, eight SPDC ministers were
      moved, including Brig Gen David Abel, who
      as minister for National Planning and
      Economic Development had been playing
      a key role in attracting foreign investment to
      Burma since 1989. 

      The second shake-up was aimed at
      cleaning up the junta's image and also at
      attracting more foreign investment, say
      some analysts in Rangoon and in Bangkok.
      Than Aung, former minister for
      co-operatives, and Win Sein, former
      minister for rail transportation, were kicked
      upstairs. After former trade minister Tun Kyi
      and former tourism minister Kyaw Ba, the
      two were named most corrupt ministers. 

      Tun Kyi's assets are believed frozen, but so
      far, no drastic action has been taken
      against the former ministers. Burma
      watchers felt the recent reshuffle was simply
      cosmetic, just to resolve the junta's internal
      conflicts. 

      Many local businessmen in Rangoon and
      Mandalay expressed frustration over the
      recent reshuffle. ''We are very confused.
      Our previous deals [with ministers] are
      gone. We have to start again.'' 

      According to a Rangoon-based analyst,
      another reshuffle is possible. ''At least two
      more big fish need to be caught. One could
      be Mayor U Ko Lay,'' he said. 

      In any case, is no one can save Burma's
      economy. Social unrest, lack of confidence
      and internal conflict have eroded the foreign
      investment climate, which has also been
      seriously damaged by the US ban on new
      investment and by consumer-led boycotts in
      the West. 

      The Burmese currency, the kyat, has
      dropped in value rapidly, with one US dollar
      now equivalent to over 300 kyat (it went
      down to 400 kyat recently), although the
      official rate remains six to the dollar. 

      Analysts said the regime's unlimited note
      printing, money laundering from the drug
      trade and the uncontrollable circulation of
      counterfeit money have led to the serious
      instability of the kyat. 

      Moreover, the country is experiencing a
      second consecutive year of heavy damage
      to its rice crop from the current flooding in
      Mon State, Irrawaddy division, Arakan
      State, Karen State and Pegu regions.
      Although the shortage is not yet acute, local
      rice prices are rising, and exports will be
      limited to amounts far below the military
      government's ambitious targets. 

      Repressive rule 

      Although the junta's new name is more
      pleasant than the former one, political
      opposition in Burma remains suppressed.
      The SPDC continues to tighten its screws
      on the democracy movement. 

      At the same time, the National League for
      Democracy party continues to be
      marginalised. Party meetings have been
      banned or harassed with threats, arrests
      and persecution of party members and
      supporters. 

      Over 1,000 political prisoners remain
      incarcerated in jails. Some senior NLD
      members were given lengthy sentences in
      November. Recently, NLD members in the
      countryside were forced to resign from the
      party. The junta also apprehended a
      landlord who agreed to rent an office to Suu
      Kyi's political party. The party leaders are
      not allowed to see foreign press, and
      phone lines have been cut off for years. 

      Shortly after the SPDC delegation led by
      Senior Gen Than Shwe attended the Asean
      informal summit in Malaysia, some senior
      NLD members were invited to meet
      officials in Rangoon. At the meeting, the
      junta warned the NLD to stop holding mass
      gatherings or risk losing meaningful
      dialogue. 

      They were told to refrain from accusations
      and protests against the government's
      security measures. ''If they keep doing this,
      the chances of dialogue and national
      reconciliation, which the NLD has been
      talking about, would go further away,'' the
      official newspaper said. 

      But NLD vice chairman Tin Oo has a
      different version. ''I consider it merely a
      scolding. They accused us of disrupting
      peace by issuing announcements -- but why
      can't we say that our men are being
      arrested and sentenced without defence?''
      he said. 

      Indeed, with or without official approval, Suu
      Kyi and NLD are determined to celebrate
      Burma's 50th anniversary of independence
      on Jan 4, when many expect ''the Lady'' to
      hold a public gathering. 

      ''We regained our independence [from the
      British], but Burma isn't freed from the
      military dictatorship,'' said student activist
      Win Min. Like Win Min, many activists in
      and out of Burma warned if the SPDC
      cannot resolve the current political and
      economic crisis, the people may take to the
      streets again as they did in 1988. 

      However, no one can guarantee that any
      popular uprising will solve Burma's
      decades-old problems. But if they have no
      alternative, the Burmese will be forced to
      take to the streets to challenge the junta. 

      There is a climate of fear in the country with
      the new junta having no qualms about
      putting down dissent. 

      Indeed, political deadlock and instability
      won't help to attract more foreign
      investment or overseas development aid. 

      ''Political dialogue is possible if the
      opposition party gets weaker and weaker,''
      a local veteran journalist said, adding that
      genuine political dialogue can turn Burma
      into a peaceful and developed nation. 

      But for the generals, the truth is bitter, and
      they refuse to swallow it. Power has made
      them blind and deaf. 

      Aung Zaw is a freelance writer.