1998- The Year of the Tiger & It;'

[enmasse_1@xxxxxxxxxxx]

                    1998 - THE YEAR OF THE TIGER


It?s  28 January 1998 and Chinese throughout the world are celebrating 
their New Year ushering in the Year Of The Tiger. They believed that 
it?s the time of dramatic & often dangerous change.
( Burmese New Year falls in April 1998 ).  

In my previous posting, I have said that the old regime in Burma is 
making its final preparation to exit the millennium the best way it 
possibly could.  In this posting, I would like to add why this indicates 
a final changeover and when this final phase had to be over.

What ever it is, it is my sincere wish that there be a smooth change but 
definitely not a dangerous encounter as I have read in other postings 
which were floating around on the Internet.
	
          * IT?S LIKE OPENING OF A TIME CAPSULE IN BURMA*

1948	Burma got it?s independence from the British on 4th January   
        1948. 

1962	[14] years later, ( i.e on 2 March 1962 ), a military coup 
        led by General Ne Win took place tearing down the government 
        State Organs, the constitution and set up the Revolutionary 
        Council (RC).

1974    [12] years later,(i.e on 3rd January 1974 ) the country was 
        renamed the Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma after a 
        new constitution was promulgated following a referendum in 
        December 1973.

1988   [14] years later,(i.e  on 18 September 1988 ) a military coup 
       led by General Saw Maung took place, tearing down the BSPP,  
       the government State Organs, the constitution and set up the 
       State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC).

1997   [9] years later, (i.e on 15 November 1997 ) SLORC was 
       dissolved and replaced by State Peace and Development Council 
       (SPDC).

So, what?s next? I envisage the following as the last phase.
	 
1998-? [within 3 ] years. Change-over phase. It should be completed 
       in less than [3] years. ( i.e  1998-2000 )
	
One should know by now that Ne Win?s reign is based on an alternating 
cycle between set-in and settling-in phases having [14] and [12] years 
cycle respectively.

It now appears that the final settling-in period ( i.e dissolution of 
the SLORC ) came rather pre-matured . In actual fact, it isn?t. This 
settling-in phase is activated in time and is primarily due the age 
factor of General Ne Win who is widely believed to be still calling the 
shots from behind the scene. But, unfortunately this is going to be the 
last time for him and he simply does not have the luxury of the time to 
wait beyond this [3] years to watch over the situations as he said in 
his resignation speech in 1988. So far, I have witnessed everything went 
along his way and I therefore would expect that he will do all that he 
had declared to do and set the country free on the road to democracy and 
hope this [14]/[12]-year cycle will break after him.  

Recently, NLD and the SPDC had consultation with the UN envoy and the UN 
has offered assistance to the SPDC, NLD and other leaders in addressing 
the present political stalemate and bring them to the discussion table. 
It was also reported that NLD would hand over a series of letters and 
papers from other political groups, war veterans and members of the 
general public urging for a dialogue to end the standoff. 
		                                                     M K M


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