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ANALYSIS / THAI-BURMESE RELATIONS-G
- Subject: ANALYSIS / THAI-BURMESE RELATIONS-G
- From: BurmaJapan@xxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 06 Feb 1998 12:57:00
ANALYSIS / THAI-BURMESE RELATIONS
Gas pipeline will stress closer interdependence
The Yadana gas pipline is the most
tangible example of the constructive
engagement policy adopted towards
Burma.
NUSSARA SAWATSAWANG - Bangkok Post
The scheduled delivery of Burmese offshore natural gas
to Thailand in July highlights the economic
interdependence expected to become increasingly
important to relations between Thailand and Burma in
1998 and beyond.
Despite opposition from environmentalists and human
rights advocates, the Thai government maintains that
the import of what is the cleanest and cheapest energy
source will serve Thailand's long-term need for
industrialisation.
For the Burmese military junta in Rangoon, which
remains isolated internationally for human rights
abuses
and its failure to democratise, the gas pipeline is
emerging as its main apparent source of income.
Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan has expressed hope
that economic relations will turn from burden into
opportunity through the sharing of borders between the
two countries, and encourage an "internal change"
within Burma as well.
"In many countries, conflicts are gradually reduced
after
economic cooperation. The internal change is also
accelerated more quickly and easily when trade and
investment opportunity is open... We [Thailand] hope
this would also happen," he said.
Cooperating with neighbouring countries will help
Thailand save $5-6 billion (230-276 billion baht)
annually
on energy bills, added the man who served as deputy
foreign minister in the previous Chuan Leekpai
government which set the policy in late 1993 to import
natural gas from Burma.
Thailand is committed to a 30-year contract with the
Yadana consortium under which the Petroleum Authority
of Thailand will buy an average of 525 million cubic
feet
of gas per day and pay a daily rate of about 41 million
baht.
Burma, which will use some 105 million cubic feet of
the
gas daily, is expected to earn about $150 million
(about
6.9 billion baht) annually after sharing expense and
capital recovery, a process expected to continue
through
the year 2001-2002. The French oil company Total has
a 31.24 percent in the consortium, Unocal of America
28.26 percent, PTT Exploration and Production Plc 25.5
percent, and Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (Moge) 15
percent.
In other follow-up projects, the PTT is committed in
the
year 2000 to start taking delivery of natural gas from
the
nearby Yetagun field, which is developed by a
consortium led by the US oil company Texaco.
Following the signing of a memorandum of
understanding in July for Thailand to purchase 1,500
megawatts of power from Burma in the next decade, the
Thai power firm MDX has won permission from the
Burmese government to conduct an 18-month feasibility
study on the construction of hydro-power plants on the
Salween River.
With the $1 billion (46 billion baht) Yadana gas
pipeline
project now 70 percent complete, the PTT is scheduled
to begin taking delivery of natural gas from Burma on
July 1 at the Ratchaburi power station.
Thai environmentalists and the Burmese opposition do
not look forward to the event. The environmentalists
have been demanding the rerouting of a 50-km segment
of the 260-km pipeline that lies in the Huay Kayeng
national park reserve.
But the PTT maintains that it has done its best to
minimise the impact, such as reducing the width of its
development area from 20 to 12 metres and preparing a
rehabilitation plan after the project's completion.
Environmentalists add that the adverse impact of
building a transmission line for future
power-generating
schemes through many watershed areas along the
Thai-Burmese border is expected to be far greater.
Unlike Thai people who enjoy freedom of expression, a
lot of Burmese cannot voice their grievances from
forced
relocation for economic ventures in the south,
including
the laying of a gas pipeline which runs some 63 kms
across Burma to the Thai border.
According to "Terror in the South", a report by the All
Burma Students' Democratic Front, as many as 79
villages and 6,421 households in southern Tenasserim
division have been forcibly relocated by Burmese troops
since mid-1996. The report also points to
extra-judicial
killings, destruction of villages, rape and sexual
harassment.
Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National
League for Democracy, doubts the benefits for the
Burmese people of the gas pipeline.
"As long as there's no accountable government in
Burma, I do not think the money generated by the gas
pipeline can be said to be invested for the country as
a
whole," she said in a recent interview with the
non-government Alternative Asean Network on Burma, a
transcript of which was obtained by the Bangkok Post.
The military junta, she said, "have absolute right to
decide what they will do with the revenues that they
gain.
They can use it all to buy arms or they can build the
military museum."
The Chuan government however is not without political
demands on Burma's leaders. The prime minister
himself turned down an invitation extended in December
for him to visit Rangoon. During his first term as
prime
minister, between 1992-1995, Burma was the only
neighbouring country he did not visit.
Thailand also advocated the concept of an "open
society" in the Asean Vision 2020 statement issued
during the grouping's informal summit in Kuala Lumpur
mid-December. Burma was certainly one member state
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations which
would have found it difficult to accept the call for
popular
participation in determining the future of Asean
communities.
Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore and Vietnam are the other member states.
In recent statements, Mr Surin has maintained that
Thailand had no option but to be a "moral and ethical"
force towards this goal. But he also has made clear
that
Thailand will "actively engage Burma in a positive way
without interference".
In the view of Thammasat University historian and
long-time Burma observer, Charnvit Kasetsiri, the Asean
emphasis on creating open societies "consistent with
respective national identity" obstructs realisation of
the
goal.
Sustainable Thai-Burmese relations, maintains Mr
Charnvit, depend very much on a political settlement in
Burma and on the establishment of truly peaceful
borders.
The major reshuffle in November that saw the ruling
State Law and Order Restoration Council dissolved and
replaced by the State Peace and Development Council,
with many new military commanders introduced,
indicates fierce internal conflict among top figures,
he
said.
If this political tension remains unsolved, economic
problems will persist, there will be no real ceasefire
between the regime and ethnic minority insurgents, and
Thailand will have to receive a new influx of Burmese
people, he concluded.
"As long as the situation inside Burma is not eased,
problems [between Thailand and Burma] will remain,"
he said.
Thailand is currently host to about a million illegal
Burmese immigrants who offer cheap labour for many
domestic industries. There are also up to 115,000
refugees encamped along the Thai-Burmese border.