COUNTRY IN LIMBO

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COUNTRY IN LIMBO 
In Myanmar it is not safe to assume anything, especially about politics

By Roger Mitton (Yangon )
Asia Week February 13, 1998



"It's about six points something," says Kyaw Kyaw Maung, governor of the
Central Bank of Myanmar. Pressed for the official dollar exchange rate of
the kyat, he repeats: "Six point something, six point something." Deputy
finance minister Brig.-Gen. Than Tun echoes the governor. Neither care to
be too specific about the unofficial exchange rate (more than 300 to the
dollar), the level of foreign reserves or even the inflation rate. 

The vagueness, from men who should know instantly and exactly such crucial
statistics, characterizes Myanmar 50 years after Independence. Nothing is
definite; everything is open to interpretation. Confusion can be found
everywhere in this resource-rich but desperately poor nation. "Never assume
anything," says Maurie Drew, country manager for Asia Pacific Energy Co.
"Nothing is quite what it seems."

Security has improved, although antagonism among the minority ethnic groups
toward the majority Burmans still exists. Planes flying into Yangon are
often full. But in the capital, many restaurants and bright new hotels
appear empty. Censorship is rigid; yet ubiquitous satellite dishes beam in
world news in real time. Despite economic hardship, sidewalk merchants are
busy and the streets are jammed with traffic. The quality of roads is
better than it used to be, but even First Secretary Khin Nyunt said
recently that "Myanmar's infrastructure is far behind the times." Schools
have so few resources that most parents pay for extra private tuition for
their children. Says a top civil servant: "The education system is really
very sick." Yet the level of spoken English is better than in neighboring
Thailand. Universities have remained closed since student protests in
December 1996. But "in the very near future the universities will re-open,"
says cabinet minister Gen. David Abel.

In a country where even tertiary education is uncertain, it is no wonder
that people glean whatever information they can from whatever clues are
available. There is so little transparency, and so much obfuscation and
dissembling, that no one is ever sure of anything. This is certainly the
case when it comes to explaining the recent changes in the military
government. 

On Nov. 15, Myanmar's State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), a
group of generals who had ruled since 1988, was replaced by a State Peace
and Development Council. Some top-ranking generals were sacked and several
have been detained while under investigation for bribery. The cabinet --
which administers the decisions of the Council -- was also revamped. The
makeover is not just cosmetic. "Definitely not." says one senior envoy. "It
is very substantive." But what does it mean and why did it happen now?

Some suggest reclusive former dictator Gen. Ne Win, who stepped down in
1988, told Khin Nyunt it was time to act; but, as usual, this is disputed.
Minister Abel gives the official line that SLORC had completed its task of
restoring law and order. "Everything is about 95% peaceful now," he says.
"So we can take a further step forward to bring peace and development.
That's why we changed." Actually, there were other reasons. Namely, to get
rid of that reviled acronym SLORC, to remove several flagrantly corrupt
ministers, and to try to reinvigorate the process of government. In
attempting to do this, the roles of the new 19-member Council and the
41-member cabinet have been clearly delineated for the first time. 

The country is effectively run by five Yangon-based generals: Council
chairman Than Shwe, vice-chairman Maung Aye, and secretaries 1, 2 and 3 --
Khin Nyunt, Tin Oo and Win Myint. They comprise Myanmar's so-called
politburo, and they are the only ones who hold positions in the Council and
also sit in on cabinet sessions. The other 14 Council members are the
regional military commanders. Since most of these are based far from
Yangon, it is likely the whole council will meet just three or four times a
year. 

The new line-up may improve efficiency. Says one regional commander who is
a new council member: "In the past, ministers sometimes never responded to
our requests. Now, if there is a problem with a minister, we can go
straight to Gen. Than Shwe who promises an answer in 24 hours." Since many
new ministers are former commanders of similar rank and age as their
replacements in the field, there is greater rapport between Yangon and the
regions. "[The changes have] brought more effective decision-making," says
a Western diplomat. "The officials are more accountable to each other." New
regional commanders and ministers are also supposed to be more responsive
to the minorities and follow through on government promises of economic
development in their areas. 

The changes were also part of an anti-corruption push that led to the
downfall of the ministers of commerce, tourism, agriculture, forestry and
transport. Says Tin Tun, the deputy energy minister: "A lot of people who
were found guilty of corruption have been jailed. You have to keep a check
on everybody." Another military leader told Asiaweek: "We are doing a kind
of house-cleaning. Investigations are going on and we'll await the
outcome." More than 40 top officials are being probed. Some believe that
secretary-2, Lt.-Gen. Tin Oo, National Planning Minister Soe Tha, and
Yangon Mayor Ko Lay may be under investigation, but officials deny this. 

The new arrangement also means that the five-member "politburo" -- who
attend Thursday morning cabinet meetings - will have a relatively free hand
to oversee the affairs of state. The five have different degrees of power.
Who really runs Myanmar from among this group? Says an Asian diplomat:
"It's more than one, less than five." Many speculate that intelligence
chief Khin Nyunt and armed forces head Maung Aye call the shots, with Than
Shwe balancing the two. 

The changes have restored Khin Nyunt (or S-1 as he is universally known) to
a dominant position. Many new ministers and commanders are more comfortable
with the pragmatic, reform-minded S-1 than with the conservative,
hold-the-line Maung Aye (who is said to take a dim view of Khin Nyunt's
support for dialogue with certain elements in the National League for
Democracy). But Khin Nyunt is seen as a "white collar" officer who cannot
rally the battle-hardened veterans under Maung Aye. As one diplomat says:
"Maung Aye may be charmless, but he's effective. He's a good soldier, and
he keeps the armed forces together." However, Maung Aye's poor English and
lack of an international perspective mean he can never represent the new,
more outward-looking, market-oriented Myanmar that was inducted into ASEAN
last July. "There has been a change in attitude since it became a member,"
says a senior Thai foreign ministry official. "The government is more
trusting." 

Many say the military's greatest concern is not the NLD, volatile students
or moody monks (who may reflect public discontent), and certainly not
criticism from the West, but rather a split within its own ranks. But talk
of divisions has quieted. Says a senior officer in Khin Nyunt's new
think-tank, the Office of Strategic Studies: "It is wishful thinking. We
have a collective leadership, and while there may be differences, once a
consensus is reached, all will back it up." 

Whatever their differences, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt need each other -- and
need the dull but steady Than Shwe for balance. Of this key trio, it is
Khin Nyunt who is most visible. Every day the government-run newspaper, New
Light of Myanmar, carries numerous pictures of S-1 opening health centers,
welcoming dignitaries, inaugurating new bridges -- and, most prominent,
meeting religious leaders. The monks are deeply respected in predominantly
Buddhist Myanmar and keeping them content is a major preoccupation of the
junta. Says a diplomat: "The generals meet the people all the time. They
are not aloof." Minister Abel says: "The military is very popular with the
people." 

Not all agree. Complaints about the junta's performance abound. Forced
labor and 116,000 refugees along the Thai border bring shame to Yangon. The
economic upswing -- GDP growth averaged 7% for the past five years -- has
tailed off. Inflation is officially 26%, unofficially about 38%. Even Khin
Nyunt has said that the country "is weak in foreign exchange savings and
reserves." Tourism is down. More important, so too is the rice harvest.
This year no rice will be exported to conserve stocks for domestic use and
prevent possible unrest. Still, Central Bank Governor Kyaw Kyaw Maung says:
"Things overall are quite good, not bad. Why all the complaining?" 

Oppositionists could tell him. In December, several NLD members were given
lengthy jail terms in what many view as an ongoing political witchhunt. The
movements of NLD Sec.-Gen. Aung San Suu Kyi remain severely circumscribed.
Sitting at the dinner table with his family, a Yangon businessman says:
"Suu Kyi is still very popular, 95% of the population is behind her. I am
optimistic change is coming. These men are leading us nowhere." Miriam
Marshall Segal, chair of Myanmar Business and Trade Consulting, Inc.,
disputes this. Says she: "They are doing good for the country, and I don't
think anyone else could do it better." 

At least the generals have abandoned doctrinaire socialism and are working
toward multi-party elections. Slowly. Says Deputy Energy Minister Tin Tun:
"Let me say very clearly our population still needs a lot of political
education." When the time does come, the generals will not bow out
entirely. Says one officer: "In the new Constitution there [will be] a
clause saying the military should play a leading role in national
politics." Following the Indonesian model, a quarter of the seats in
parliament will be reserved for the armed forces.

Exiled pro-democracy leader Ba Thaung, the country's former U.N.
ambassador, scoffs at the notion. "Indonesian-style democracy will not work
in Myanmar," he says. "Without a negotiated political settlement, the
country's problems will never be solved." He points to the astonishing
turnout and result of the 1990 elections, which saw Suu Kyi's NLD sweep 80%
of the seats. But the military insists that it must have a presence to
ensure the nation's integrity. "We will be a stabilizing body," says one
officer. 

Democracy, Myanmar-style, may not quiet the critics though. And that
rankles. Says Lt.-Col. Hla Min of the Office of Strategic Studies: "We are
a soft target. Sanctions are imposed on us, while other countries in the
region where there are human rights abuses and no elections are given most
favored nation status."

The government likes to point out that France, Holland, the United Kingdom
and the United States are among Myanmar's biggest business partners. One
senior officer murmurs: "The hypocrisy is astonishing." Sitting at home,
deprived of power even though her party won a landslide election victory
eight years ago, Suu Kyi might say the same about the military's claim to
be moving toward democracy. Both sides plead sincerity. Confusion and
contradiction. Modern Myanmar.

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CCT