The BurmaNet News: April 1, 1998

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"Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"   
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The BurmaNet News: April 1, 1998    
Issue #972

Noted in Passing: 

"As long as even one person remains in Burma who refuses to give up the
fight for democracy, I will not leave. I will not abandon the democratic
cause for my own peace of mind."  -- Aung San Suu Kyi (see THE ASIAN AGE:
AUNG SAN SUU KYI ESSAY).

HEADLINES:
==========

THE ASIAN AGE: AUNG SAN SUU KYI ESSAY 
THE NATION:  SUU KYI LASHES OUT AT OIL CO.
THE NATION:  GREATER UNHCR ROLE WILL AID TRANSPARENCY
THE NATION: PROTECT THE REFUGEES
BANGKOK POST: BURMA PLEDGES AID IN RELEASE OF ABDUCTEES
DPNS:  MEDIA RELEASE ON ARRESTS
NLM:  SELECTED BRIEFS
ASIAWEEK:  HARD TIMES IN YANGON

****************************************************************

THE ASIAN AGE: AUNG SAN SUU KYI - A BRIDGE OVER TROUBLED WATERS CAN STILL
BE BUILT
March 25, 1998

AUNG SAN Suu Kyi, leader in the Burmese pro-democracy movement, won the
Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. The general secretary of the National League
for Democracy, Suu Kyi was released after six years of house arrest in
1995 in the wake of international pressure.  She spoke to a group of
journalists in Rangoon, and these are excerpts from that interview
(By arrangement with the Inter Press Service)

Rangoon: Nobody is benefiting from the impasse between the junta and the
Opposition in Burma, and it is time this fact is recognized by all sides.
Of course, compared to the length of time, which other countries had to
struggle for  democracy, the 10 years Burma has waited since the 1988
pro-democracy  uprising is not very long.

There is no cause for great despair or disappointment at this stage because
it is normal for authoritarian regimes to be intractable for long periods
of time.  One just perseveres.  People must realize however that, as time
goes by, the present state of affairs is only going to get worse.

The Burmese economy has deteriorated visibly in the past years.  Since
1995, when I was released from house arrest, the National League for
Democracy has predicted that this would be the case with the economy,
not because we were astrologers but simply because we have listened to
the people who have the courage to tell us what is really going on.

The people are suffering more. There has been no expansion of our
political freedoms.  The political situation has not improved. We
clearly are worse off them we were three years ago; nevertheless I am
confident there will be change.  I don't know exactly how it will occur,
but there can be no doubt that the discontent of the people will be a
significant force in bringing it about.  I continue to support economic
sanctions against Burma because I don't think that they have hurt
anybody except the richest of the rich, who are not interested in the
kind of change that is necessary for the rest of the country to
prosper.  It is partly because of these people, who have become rich
over the last few years, that Burma is not achieving genuine progress.
The gap between rich and poor has widened greatly and economic sanctions
can only help to close that gap. At present, the National League for
Democracy is acting as a legitimate Opposition party.

The role of Opposition parties everywhere is to point out the problems
that exist in a country and to urge the government to do something to
address them, and, more or less, to inform those in government that if
they fail to act they have to give other people the chance to do so.
What is ironic about our situation is that the NLD should not be an
Opposition party at all: the people elected us in 1990.  We achieved an
overwhelming victory in the general elections, but Burma's military;
junta refused, and refuses to this day, to honor the results.  A major
task of the NLD today is devising ways of persuading the authorities to
understand that what they are doing is not good for the country.

The position of the NLD is that the people's movement must come into
being spontaneously.  We cannot create it; we can only demonstrate to
the people what we are prepared to do for democracy.  It's quite obvious
that our people are willing to do a great deal for democracy; they are
constantly being imprisoned for their efforts to bring it about. With
regard to entering into a dialogue with the State Peace and Development
Council, as the junta now calls itself, the NLD wants a genuine
political dialogue without any preconditions.

A genuine political dialogue assumes equality among the parties
involved, which means that each side chooses its own representatives.
The SPDC, however, has demanded not only that I be excluded from any
talks, but that NLD chairman Aung Shwe be excluded as well. We will not
accept a dialogue under these conditions.

As long as even one person remains in Burma who refuses to give up the
fight for democracy, I will not leave. I will not abandon the democratic
cause for my own peace of mind.  Still, we are keeping all our options
open because we think it is very important never to say "never" in
politics.

As for the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations -
Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam,
Burma and Laos - I would like to appeal to them to do all they can to
help bring about the democratization of Burma, because once there is an
accountable and transparent government in this country, the country
shall be able to improve its economic situation.

Once that is achieved, Burma will be in a position to contribute to the
region so that whenever there are problems, Burma would not be a dead
weight but a source of help.

At the moment, of course, we need help but we look forward to the time
when we can contribute to the progress and peace of the region.

*******************************************************

THE NATION:  SUU KYI LASHES OUT AT OIL COMPANY'S INVESTMENT IN BURMA
March 30, 1998
Yindee Lertcharoenchok

LONDON - Burma pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has strongly 
criticised the Premier Oil investment in Burma, saying its deal
with the Burmese junta "does a great disservice to the cause of
democracy" and "contributes to repression in the country."

She charged the British oil company  with being  very selfish"
and of sending the wrong signal to the Burmese regime, which
could then argue that  however repressive they may be, they still
have the support of big companies".

"And if these [companies] are from Western democracies, it's even
more serious, because it gives the military regime a chance to
say,  'Look, even companies from Western democracies support us,
so what we are doing can't be that wrong,"' said Suu Kyi  in a
video statement recently smuggled out of Burma.

Meanwhile a London-based Burma human-rights group has launched a
campaign to push the British government to impose unilateral
financial sanctions on Burma in order to prevent investments such
as Premier Oil's.

In  press statements released ahead of the second Asia-Europe
Meeting, the Burma Action Group said a new analysis by Essex
University concluded that "it is legally possible for a member
state [of the European Union] to impose a ban on foreign
investment in Burma".

Significantly, the financial sanctions can be imposed for
'serious political reasons and on grounds of urgency,'" said the
summary of the legal analysis, done by Steve Peers, director of
the university's Centre for European Commercial Law. It also said
the "criterion seems easy to meet in the case of Burma."

Financial sanctions can run the gamut from very limited
restrictions on direct investment to a complete ban on new direct
investment with divestment orders and asset freezes, it added.

In her message, Suu Kyi questioned the British government's
sincerity and expressed doubt about why the British government's
tough stance against Burma was not translated into firm action to
curb the economic activities of British companies such as Premier Oil.

She charged the British company with being "very selfish" and
said the company's project was not only supporting the Burmese
regime financially: "It is also giving it moral support, and it
is doing a great disservice to the cause of democracy." The
Burmese Nobel Prize laureate added: "It should be ashamed of itself."

In 1990, Premier Oil and its partners Petronas of Malaysia,
Nippon of Japan and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand entered
into a US $ 700- million deal with Burma's state-owned  Myanmar
Oil and Gas Enterprise for the development and sale of gas in the
Gulf of Martaban.

In an interview last week Yvette Mahon, director of the Burma
Action Group, said her organisation was trying to push individual
members of the European Union to impose unilateral sanctions on
Burma as earlier attempts for a collective EU measure had been
blocked by major member countries, particularly France and Germany.

****************************************************************

THE NATION:  GREATER UNHCR ROLE WILL AID TRANSPARENCY
March 30, 1998

Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai's tacit support for the proposal to
allow more involvement of the United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR) in the handling of refugee camps along the
Thai-Burmese border is a bold and laudable move. Addition praise
should be given for his order to take all-out military retaliation against
the Rangoon-backed Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) if they again
attack Burmese refugee camps whose residents are mostly sympathetic to Gen
Bo Mya's Karen National Union (KNU), the last remaining ethnic armed
insurgency still holding out on a cease-fire agreement with the Burmese
military junta.

Chuan's actions will send a strong signal to the military leaders
in Rangoon, who as a close neighbour and fellow member in Asean
should respond by offering their cooperation in the ongoing
investigation into the cross border raids. The junta cannot
expect to get away with denying all responsibility. After all,
the DKBA broke away from the KNU in 1995 and has
since been working with Rangoon to crush the rebel group.

The recent violence has drawn international attention, prompting
a visit to the refugee camps by the UNHCR along with the
ambassadors of the United States, Australia and Britain as well
as secretary-general of the National Security Council Gen Bunsak
Khamhaengritthirong.  In a joint statement issued after the visit
last Friday they agreed to support Thailand's move to relocate the camps
deeper into Thai territory for security and humanitarian reasons.

Be it security-driven or economy-driven, the greater involvement
on the part of the UNHCR in Burmese refugee camps marked a
quantum change in the Thai military's approach to the problem.
For years they have feared that with UN involvement the Burmese
refugees would become a permanent issue or that UN meddling would
obstruct Thai security operations along the border.

Hundreds of thousands of Burmese refugees, residing in camps
inside the Thai border have long been victims of barbarous
killings and endless abuses as a result of prolonged fighting
between Rangoon and armed ethnic insurgencies. Thailand's past
and persistent refusal of a UN role in the Burmese refugee camps
has put a black mark against the points scored for the help given
in sheltering Cambodian refugees.

The UNHCR, which had worked successfully with Thai authorities in
caring for 300,000 Cambodians until the last Cambodian refugee
camp was emptied last year, currently has only limited access to
the Burmese refugee camps. They will be allowed to visit camps on
a case-by-case basis. Not surprisingly, Thailand has often been
accused by human-rights groups of having an opaque and inhumane
policy toward the Burmese refugees.

But in the interests of both the Thai government and the safety
and well-being of the refugees, the UNHCR role should at least be
equal to what it had in the handling of Cambodian refugees,
giving the UN body not-ultimate authority but a day-to-day
presence in the camps and certain rights to offer recommendations.

Although the debate on the role of UNHCR is inconclusive, what
could be done first as a goodwill step is to utilise UNHCR's
skill in screening the refugees to determine whether they are
bona fide before the government moves the refugee camps deeper
into Thai territory to ensure better security protection for them.

Nonetheless the question remains whether the relocation of the
present camps would solve the security problems. Some of the
refugees are family members of KNU fighters. This may also
trigger protests from nongovernmental organisations operating
along the border.

Chuan will also anticipate tough talks with those who are deeply
concerned with the security of Thailand, but he must be firm in
his stance.  Thailand has already earned a name as a showcase of
democracy and human rights; now this is another chance for Chuan
to prove that.

****************************************************************

THE NATION:  MAKE NO CONCESSION TO THE BURMESE JUNTA: PROTECT THE REFUGEES
March 30, 1998

Mark A Smith
Major, U.S. (Retired)
Bangkok

The reason refugee camps are established is to shield innocents
from war. Traditionally, even during periods when the Royal Thai
Army unabashedly supported the Karen National Union (KNU), rarely
were weapons taken into official camps. The reason for this in
the past was the habit of some Thai soldiers and police to
confiscate the weapons and then sell them back to the KNU.

Now the Army is going to send all young men in camps back to
Burma. This would seem to be another self-inflicted black eye.
After rolling over and allowing the invasion of Thai territory by
the Burmese-junta-backed factions of the Karen, the ante is upped
again, and further concessions are made to the dictators in Rangoon.

This flies in the face of claims the Army must maintain control
of border security. There appears to be little "security."  The
very word means that attacks should be prevented and not answered
with a few indirect fire rounds, fired into the jungle to show a
false bravado in the face of aggression.

As was bound to happen, the KNU finally was forced, in the face
of Thai Army opposition, to retaliate itself. As should be
obvious, they have little trouble handling the breakaway faction
or the Burmese military.

At some point the image of this country and the security of its
borders are going to have to take priority over tropical
hardwoods and business deals. That includes refraining from
sending unarmed young men into the arms of the Burmese State
Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to appease these goons
rather than do what an Army is supposed to do and cut off the
nose of any Burmese army minion who sticks it across the border.

In a time when Thailand must work with the world's community to
try and overcome the financial fiasco of the last government, it
appears the image of the country must continue to be damaged by
those who cling to a dying foreign policy of money over
national honour of the previous Gen Chavalit's regime.

In the face of SPDC denying any connection with the raids by the
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army, the Royal Thai Army should be
saying something about the KNU. At this point there is no
connection or support for the KNU. In this SPDC is lying and the
Royal Thai Army is telling the truth.

What was just seen in the KNU attack on SPDC/DKBA was a
demonstration of what the true capabilities of the KNU are. To
protect innocent lives the KNU has restrained itself on the
battlefields near Thailand. I fear if the young men are sent
unarmed into the arms of SPDC, to die, all bets will be off, and
there will be a real bloodletting along the border.

Sadly all this could be avoided  by simply killing any armed
intruder.  But it seems unarmed refugees are much easier to deal with.

****************************************************************

BANGKOK POST:  BURMA PLEDGES AID IN RELEASE OF ABDUCTEES
March 31, 1998
Wassana Nanuam

CANBERRA SUMMONS THAI, BURMESE ENVOYS

Burmese army strongman Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt has promised to
negotiate with Karen renegade rebels for the release of an
Australian aid worker and his Thai assistant.

An informed army source said that Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, first
secretary of Burma's State Peace and Development Council,
promised Army Commander in-Chief Gen Chettha Thanajaro to try to
secure the release of Nick Cheesman, an employee of the
international organisation Burma Issues and Ms Ngamsuk
Rattanasathien, who were captured by Democratic Karen Buddhist
Army members last Friday.

Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt said it might take a couple of days before the
pair could be released, said the source.

Col Chatphat Yaemngarmriab, commander of the 4th Infantry Task
Force, crossed the border yesterday to meet Capt Nu Nu, deputy
commander of the DKBA forces, to discuss the abduction of the
pair and their release, the source added.

The source said the Thai colonel was told that the pair was not
abducted but were "invited" to witness the DKBA camp after it was
attacked by anti-Rangoon Karen National Union troops last week.

The DKBA officer disclosed that both Mr Cheesman and Ms Ngamsuk
were safe at Myaing Gyi Ngu temple, the DKBA headquarters in
Hlaingbwe, and they were expected to be released this Thursday,
said the source.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Kobsak Chutikul said Thai officials
have asked Burmese authorities to return the pair as soon as possible.

Citing a report, Mr Kobsak said the DKBA maintains that the two
were not  abducted but were shown round the site of a devastated
camp on the Burmese side.

In Canberra, Australian Foreign. Minister Alexander Downer told
the parliament that Thai and Burmese ambassadors were called to
the Department of Foreign Affairs yesterday to discuss the abduction.

"This was an occasion for the government to register our concerns
in the strongest possible way," Mr Downer said. "And we sought
their assistance in working towards a safe release of Mr Cheesman
and his Thai colleague."

Australian officials had been unable to get first-hand reports of
Mr Cheesman's welfare, Mr Downer said, adding: "But we understand
that Mr Cheesman is as well as could be expected in these
difficult circumstances."

Mr Downer has ordered an Australian consular official from
Bangkok to head to the area. But negotiations for Mr Cheesman's
release were being handled by his employer, Burma Issues, said Mr
Downer.

Australian Embassy spokesman in Bangkok Peter Standord said it
appeared that the pair would be taken around DKBA bases to take
some photographs before they would be released.

****************************************************************

DEMOCRATIC PARTY FOR A NEW SOCIETY: MEDIA RELEASE ON ARRESTS
March 21, 1998

(BurmaNet Editor: The DPNS is the second largest political party after the
NLD. Originally led by Moe Thee Zun, the party was declared illegal by the
SLORC after the 1990 election.  Many leading members are still in jail.
Others are now living in exile.)

Media Release
21st March 1998

The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) still continues its attempt
to crack down on the activities of opposition members and pro-democracy
activists in Burma, by mass-arrests.  Hundreds of people, including Buddhist
monks and 50 lawyers, were recently arrested by the military intelligence
units in Rangoon and Mandalay but it is not known where they are being kept.
Among these people, some were student leaders of the All Burma Federation of
Students' Union (ABFSU) in 1950s and 1960s.

The following are some people who were recently detained by the SPDC.

1. Dr. Maung Maung Kyaw 	(a lawyer)
2. Ko Khun Sai			(a lawyer)
3. U Khin Maung Nyein		(a lawyer)
4. U Tin Maung			(a lawyer)
5. U Tin Aye			(a lawyer)
6. U Ohn Maung (Parachute)	(a former politician)
7. U Ko Yu 			(a lawyer and a well-known writer )
8. U Thar Ban			(a former  student leader)
9. U Kyi Lin			(a lawyer)
10.U Aung Myint			(a lawyer and a former student leader)
11.U Myo Myint			(an activist)
12.U Tint Lwin			(an activist)
13.Myoma U Tin Aye		(a lawyer)

The following are also on the list of arrested people who were mentioned in
the
recent SPDC's news briefing on March 1, 1998. Most are ABFSU people inside.

1. U Hla Shwe ( a former student leader )
2. U Thaw Kaung ( Chief Librarian of Rangoon University )
3. Ko Soe Moe
4. Ko Moe Kyaw
5. Ko Po Tote
6. Ko Kyaw Zaw (alias) Ko Aung Kyaw Hein
7. Ko Set Aung Naing (a student leader and a son of U Hla Shwe )
8. Ko Nay Lin Soe
9. Ko Win Oo
10.Ko Aung Htun
11.Ko Nyan Win
12.Ko Thet Naing Oo
13.Ko Khin Hlaing
14.Ko Soe Maung
15.Ma Aye Aye Myat
16.U Pyin-Nyar Zaw-Ta (a Buddhist monk )
17.U Sanda Siri (a Buddhist monk )
18.Unknown name (a Buddhist monk )
19.Unknown name (a Buddhist monk )
20.Unknown name (a Buddhist monk )
21. Ko Kyaw Win
22. Ko Naing Aung
23. Ko Lay
24. Saya U Aye Win (a private school teacher in Mandalay)

Information Department
Democratic Party for a New Society (DPNS)
P.O Box (294), CMU P.O, 
Chiang Mai 50202, Thailand
E-mail: mingla@xxxxxxxxxxxx

****************************************************************

THE NEW LIGHT OF MYANMAR: SELECTED NEWS BRIEFS

AMBASSADOR OF JAPAN PRESENTS CREDENTIALS TO SENIOR GENERAL THAN SHWE

YANGON, 23 March:  Mr Kazuo Asakai, newly accredited Ambassador of Japan to
Myanmar, presented his credentials to Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman of
the State Peace and Development Council of the Union of Myanmar, at Dagon
Yeiktha of the Ministry of Defence at 3.30 pm today.

Secretary-1 of the State Peace and Development Council Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt,
Minister for Foreign Affairs U Ohn Gyaw and Director-General of the Protocol
Department Thura U Aung Htet were also present.
______________________

AMBASSADOR OF THAILAND PRESENTS CREDENTIALS TO SENIOR GENERAL THAN SHWE

YANGON, 23 March - Mr Pensak Chalarak, newly accredited Ambassador of
Thailand to Myanmar presented his credentials to Senior General Than Shwe,
Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council of the Union of
Myanmar, at Dagon Yeiktha of the Ministry of Defence at 3 pm today.

Secretary-1 of the State Peace and Development Council Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt,
Minister for Foreign Affairs U Ohn Gyaw and Director-General of the Protocol
Department Thura U Aung Htet were also present.
___________________________

DAM PROJECT NEAR INDAW VILLAGE

YANGON, 30 March - Vice-Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council
Deputy Cornrnander-in-Chief of Defence Services Commander-in-Chief (Army)
General Maung Aye inspected development of Bahtoo Station area and Zawgyi
Hydel Power Project yesterday and today.

On arrival at Zawgyi Hydel Power Project near Indaw village, 28 miles north of
Yaksauk, they were welcomed by Col Tint Swe of Kalaw Station and officials.

The project is being implemented by Myanma Electric Power Enterprise.

Minister Maj-Gen Nyunt Tin briefed them on functions of Zawgyi Dam which
was commissioned in May 1997 and Director U Kyaw San Win of Irrigation
Department on points of the project.

Harnessing the water flowed out for irrigation and surplus water during the
rainy season the two six megawatt turbines will generate 30 million
kilowatt hours of electricity annually.

****************************************************************

ASIAWEEK:  HARD TIMES IN YANGON
April 3, 1998
Roger Mitton, Yangon

Despite economic woes, the generals' jobs are safe

It is not just politics that is slowing Myanmar's economic development
these days. It is the financial crisis too. "If money is to be made, no
matter how tyrannical or corrupt the regime, businessmen will flock there,"
says Malaysian Syed Ahmad Idid, who recently visited Myanmar with an ASEAN
business delegation. But Asia's economic problems have forced companies to
curb overseas investment. "With the exception of Singapore, the financially
distressed members of ASEAN can be expected to halt their investments in
Myanmar," says U.S.-based academic Mya Maung.

During a March visit to Yangon, Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad said his
country -- the fifth-largest investor in Myanmar after the United Kingdom,
Singapore, Thailand and the United States -- would like to increase its
presence in the country, but is constrained by economic troubles at home.
"The focus today is more on trade than investment," said Mahathir. That is
probably true for most of ASEAN, and may not be such a bad thing. As
cabinet minister David Abel points out, 46% of Myanmar's trade is with
ASEAN. Much of it involves food and raw materials, commodities less
affected by the economic downturn. "People still need to eat," he says.

It is one of the ironies of the regional crisis that the more isolated a
country, the less affected it is by the turmoil. This is as true for
Myanmar as it is for Vietnam and Laos. As one of Myanmar's military leaders
says: "We are self-reliant, so it's not as bad as all that." And it is
unlikely to get bad enough to threaten the junta, or the totalitarian
regimes in Hanoi and Vientiane. Few expect the economic troubles to have a
dramatic political impact.

The changes to the government last November -- which included the abrupt
sacking of many ministers -- did have a strong economic motive, though. New
men took over the finance and commerce portfolios. Foreign Minister Ohn
Gyaw told Asiaweek: "We knew that we could not go on as we were. We know
that we have been left behind for 30 years. What we need most of all now is
economic development."

But no one likes a military dictatorship, and the generals who usurped
power and are ruling (or perhaps misruling) Myanmar, rightly come in for
their share of condemnation. Despite its undeniable progress, Myanmar still
has a long way to go. In truth, everyone knows that the economy will not
take off until the political deadlock is resolved. Even some in the junta
concede this. The nation's most prominent leader, Khin Nyunt, says: "In any
country, political and economic changes occur hand-in-hand, and economic
development is possible only if there is political stability." Privately,
the government and the National League for Democracy are showing some
flexibility. Informed sources say this has led to recent clandestine
meetings between the NLD head, Aung San Suu Kyi, and Khin Nyunt that could
lead to a major breakthrough this year. Partly at the behest of ASEAN
leaders, the notion of power-sharing is being considered. Suu Kyi has not
ruled this out.

Meanwhile, the economic slowdown is real enough. Since July, the kyat has
lost about 35% against the U.S. dollar. The official exchange rate is six
kyat to the dollar, but the sanctioned "commercial" rate (that tourists
use) is about 250. Businessmen are allowed to convert their kyat earnings
into foreign-exchange certificates (technically equivalent to dollars) at
the commercial rate. But they can repatriate only $50,000 a month, if the
currency is available.

Foreign-exchange reserves have fallen, though officials are reluctant to
admit by how much. In mid-1997, the World Bank estimated Myanmar's foreign
reserves at about $150 million -- less than one month's worth of imports.
The government has imposed severe import controls over the past nine
months, yet hard currency is still at a premium. An Asian diplomat
struggling to encourage his countrymen to invest in Myanmar says: "The
present situation is not easy, especially because of the shortage of
foreign exchange." Already, representative offices of Malaysian, South
Korean and Thai banks have cut back staff or temporarily closed their
doors. Myanmar was counting on tourism to help increase the reserves, and
has enough hotel rooms for the next five years. But fewer Asians are
traveling now.

Cross-border trade with Thailand and China has been stymied by Yangon's
curbs on imports. "It's bad, and worse is to follow," says one trader. "We
are facing a big crisis. No one is exporting or importing." The
restrictions on imports of luxury goods have led to shortages of such items
as UHT milk, wine, and liquor. Says an Asian diplomat: "Since last July, it
has been difficult to get import licenses, except for essential goods.
Cars, air conditioners and video players are all piling up on the docks in
Singapore." Yangon retorts that companies from Japan, Korea and even
Singapore bring in products, such as second-hand cars, that they cannot
sell at home. "It's a form of dumping," says Abel. "Even the U.S. has rules
against that." Now there is a total ban on the import of new cars.

Still, Yangon's shops remain busy -- though often there is a lot more
window-shopping than buying. In the Yuzana department store consumers can
still find everything from Samsung washing machines to Levi jeans to
Johnnie Walker scotch (though increasingly Myanmar beer and Mandalay rum
fill the shelves).

And despite hand-wringing about foreign debt, Myanmar's is still relatively
small ($5.2 billion compared to Thailand's $92.9 billion and Indonesia's
$137.4 billion). As well, Myanmar's annual 7% growth rate for the past four
years is creditable -- though some say it is only 4% in real local-currency
terms. Abel says it should be 6% over the next five years.

That kind of confidence is due, in part, to the fact that some of Myanmar's
top investors, including Japan, Hong Kong, Australia and China, have been
relatively unscathed by the economic crisis. Says Mya Maung: "The two
countries from which Myanmar can hope to secure funds are Japan,
historically its largest creditor and supporter, and China, its greatest
ally since 1988." Because of this assistance, he says, "the safety net for
the survival of the junta seems to be in place."

In February, Japan pledged $25 million to upgrade the runway at Yangon's
international airport. The resumption of full overseas development
assistance, cut off when the generals ignored the NLD's victory in the 1990
elections, is expected to follow. Last month, Japan's Mitsui and Co.
completed an 89-hectare, $20-million Mingaladon Industrial Park near the
airport. Investors from Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Singapore have already
taken plots. Meanwhile, another Japanese firm, Marubeni, is working on
several hydro-projects in northern Myanmar.

A $160-million Mandalay airport, built by the Italian-Thai Development
Corp., will open this year. Israel's Telrad Ltd. has upgraded Yangon's
telecommunications system. In March, the government signed an agreement
with Thailand's Shinawatra Co. to use its satellite for telecom services.
And sources say that in addition to Singapore and China (Yangon's main arms
supplier), Israeli, Russian, Swedish and Swiss companies have sold the
generals military equipment.

In addition, France's Total, U.S.-based Unocal and Mitsui are involved in a
$1-billion project to build a pipeline from the Yadana offshore gas field
to Yangon. A power station will be constructed at the gas terminal. A
second pipeline will soon start to deliver gas to Thailand.

The big projects will pay off one day. But for now even Khin Nyunt concedes
that Myanmar's economy, foreign-exchange reserves and infrastructure are in
pretty lamentable shape. At a recent seminar, he said the budget deficit
had burgeoned from $267 million in 1995 to $853 million in 1996 and has
worsened since. The defense ministry still eats up 24% of revenue.

As Khin Nyunt pointed out, local quick-profit entrepreneurs, a Western
lobby against foreign investment in Myanmar and poor domestic tax
collection all contribute to the nation's dire economic status. Revenue
collected totals a mere 3% of GDP (in other words, a paltry $165 million in
1995.) This has resulted in "the very fragile state of the Myanmar monetary
situation," he said. Although these shortcomings are no secret, it was
unprecedented for a top military leader to admit such serious problems in
the nation of 48.8 million.

Change cannot come soon enough. Academic Mya Maung says: "The real threat
to the regime is that the economy under its gross mismanagement is in a
downward spiral with escalating inflation, shortages of basic goods,
rampant corruption, and pervasive poverty that signal a massive political
convulsion and violence like the 1988 uprising." Others regard this
doomsday scenario as highly unlikely -- at least for the immediate future.

Abel says: "We will catch up. And we will do it our way. We know who our
friends are -- ASEAN, China, Japan, India." With friends like that Myanmar
may well be able to tough out the hard times. But it will not be easy.

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