Present situation of Burma: Request (r)

[thaung@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

At 03:02 AM 4/19/98, you wrote:
>Dear all,
>
>I will have a seminar on the present situation of Burma at Sarawak
>University of Malaysia this coming Thursday. My basic understanding of the
>present situation is as follows, and I have several questions regarding it.
>I would be grateful if you would provide me with any comments on any part
>of the following statement or your view on the issues raised in the
>question part. (Please take note that because of a limited amount of time
>my focus in this seminar will be on the assessment of nonviolence strategy
>by the pro-democracy movement rather than the situation surrounding
>minority groups, although I admit that the two issues are closely related
>to each other.)
>
>Thank you in anticipation for your co-operation.
>
>Dr. Mikio Oishi,
>Faculty of Social Sciences, 
>Sarawak University of Malaysia,
>Malaysia
>
>***************
>
>The confrontation between the pro-democracy movement and the military junta
>is in a stalemate. The military junta has not been able to crash the
>NLD-led pro-democracy movement although it commands overwhelming military
>power and severely oppresses the Burmese people, particularly NLD activists
>and supporters. Campaigns to isolate the military junta in the
>international community have been a huge success. The international
>condemnation has resulted in the West's economic sanctions and
>international tourism boycott, whose bites, combined with the drying up of
>investments and aid from ASEAN countries and China due to the economic
>crisis in East Asia, are felt increasingly by the military junta. 
>
>ASEAN played a role of supporter for the military junta in its move to
>admit Burma into itself. But once Burma is in the fold, ASEAN has been
>forced to play a role of mediator between NLD and SLORC/SPDC. At the moment
>ASEAN is tentatively engaging NLD as well as SPDC, and is slowly and
>silently changing its Burma policy from "constructive engagement" (which is
>exclusively economic) to "constructive intervention" (which is political as
>well as economic). This change should be credited ultimately to citizens'
>groups (within and outside ASEAN) which were opposed to the admission of
>the SLORC Burma and helped generate a huge international pressure on ASEAN
>to produce results in the wake of the admission. The military junta can no
>longer rely on ASEAN as its unconditional supporter and is under stronger
>pressure from the organisation to change. 
>
>Thus, the SLORC/SPDC has been "disarmed" to a considerable degree in
>economic, moral and military terms. Such a situation has left the junta
>with very few options to take and would eventually drag it to a
>dialogue/negotiation with NLD and the representatives of minorities
>(perhaps this will take place after an open split of the junta into the
>"hardliners" and the "realists"/"moderates"?What happened to the Marcos
>regime's armed forces under the pressure of the "People's Power" will be
>replayed in Burma?). 
>
>On the other hand, The pro-democracy movement has won the support of  the
>international community as well as maintaining its own strength. However,
>the struggle has not yet brought about a tangible change on the side of the
>junta. NLD has not realised its short-term goal of starting a genuine
>dialogue with SLORC/SPDC. For this reason, different views on the
>achievement of the movement as well as different opinions about the next
>step to be taken seem to be emerging within the pro-democracy camp.
>Particularly, there appears to be a division between those who would stick
>to the present strategy of self-empowerment and confrontation and those who
>countenance more conciliatory and/or  "realistic" approaches. 
>
>In this way, both camps are now under huge pressure, which may cause an
>internal division on each side with significant consequences for the future
>course of the conflict. 
>
>*****
>The above is my understanding of the present situation of Burma. Now my
>questions are:
>
>(1) Is there any desire or mood among the pro-democracy activists to look
>for a third party who could mediate the two camps? It is true that NLD led
>by DASSK has mediatory principles, and that because of these principles NLD
>qualifies as a national mediator/reconciliator (actually, the pro-democracy
>movement itself can be regarded as part of national reconciliation process
>of Burma), but in this particular stage of the process, NLD has to play a
>role of a party to conflict rather than mediator. It is quite difficult for
>the same group to play as a party to conflict and as a mediator at the same
>time. It seems an outside(s) is needed to mediate the two camps in the
>present impasse. 
>
>(2) If the answer of the 1st question is yes, who is the possible mediator?
>There are at least two candidates for the role. First, ASEAN seems to have
>already taken up this responsibility albeit tentatively and grudgingly.
>ASEAN may be able to bring the two camps together, using its economic and
>political clout. Second, there may be someone who command respect of both
>parties, such as a Buddhist monk of high virtues who has not been directly
>involved in the conflict. I once heard of conciliation efforts by Rev.
>Rivitta Dhamma (sorry if spelling is wrong) who was based in England (Does
>he still continue his efforts? Does anyone have more detailed
>information?). Religious persons or institutions often play an important
>role in mediation, as has been demonstrated in national reconciliation in
>the Philippines and South Africa. Can this be the case for Burma?
>
>
>Right spelling for the monk is  Dr. Rewata Dhama.
I doubt he can do much. The generals are willing to listen to him for
advice. But the NCGUB is always trying to discredit the monk. Maybe because
of their secret messages, ASSK did not see the monk anymore.

Moreover, Khin Nyunt and Than Shwe have no intention of a meeting with NLD
to talk to cure the wonds of the nation. They only want propaganda meeting
with the split NLDs so for that them to stay in power.

Situation in Burma is not good, no way out, but sufferings for the people.

The Generals are hopping that the UN and US  would yield them foreign aid to
wipe out drug production. It's a blackmail diplomacy demand ransom to stop
producing drug. It looks they would win. 
uthaung