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FW: RE: present situation in B




-----Original Message-----
>From:	PAN-YOMA [SMTP:panyoma@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent:	Wednesday, 22 April 1998 13:44
To:	'BURMANET'
Subject:	 RE:     present situation in Burma
Importance:	High

Dear Mikio
Thank you for having an interest in presenting Burmese affairs in a seminar.
Regarding your questions:
ASSK has repeatedly saying that all options are open in  having dialouge ruling junta.She and her party,NLD, are absolutely willing and almost inviting the junta to join.Yet it was ignored.As far as negotiating to settle Burma's current political stalmate is concerned, I believe NLD has done all she could.The ball has been in junta's court for too long.May be they are not interested indeed.
To confirm that junta has previously refused or rejected many foreign mediators including UN representatives,US envoys and other prominent individuals including the monk from UK.
The possibility reasons behind the refusal to even talk directly  to ASSK  are obvious.
1. No doubt that Ne Win is personally directing day to day running of SLORC/SPDC to date.He is 90 year of age and senile but capable but for how long.May be like Deng Siao Ping of China.The trip to see Soherto and using the the state own facilities for himself suggests that he is still a effective ruler of Burma.
2. Ne Win will not negotiate with ASSK .It is downgrading to do so in their military mentality no matter what is needy for the country and people.Also he does not trust the consequences after negotiated settlement and terms with NLD.Terms of agreement and honouring the agreement and its legality means so little to an old soldier like Ne Win and his cronies as we have seen in his era of military rule.Without Ne Win's approval, no one in the military dares to even suggest to negotiate with ASSK.
3. Unlike Marcos,Ne Win has no government in abroad to take him out of the situation and resettle elsewhere.May be no one is willing to dirty their hand over him or he does not trust himself to do so.
4. After all he has done bad enough to his country and people that sent him to a no return point as where he is now.He is definitely holding out to the end of last bit of his life.
5. The change inevitable once the man is gone.Sadly this is  the reality at this time


However combined efforts by UN,EU,ASEAN, and certain individuals and Ne Win involved is still a possible initiative to break the stalemate situation of Burma.

6.As recent changes of banning export on crucial products such as rice,peanut,rubber,cotton and minerals suggests the junta is crawling back to their old isolationism.They are not copping well with open society.The corruptions , briberies and greed have almost split the unity of the army eventually their hold on to power which they care most.

7.Consider on this point that the split military as Khin Nyunt faction,Maung Aye faction and Tin Oo faction or Tun Kyi,Kyaw Ba etc.will not able to make decision such as banning the export and import and what and why.There must be someone to calm them down and makes the decisions without having quarrels among them.

8.There will be less effect on putting economic pressure on the junta if it crawl back to old style isolationism.However,I suggest it is the time international community need to probe aggressive measure to intervene  to settle the situation in Burma.. for the better.

9.Remember people who has done unforgivable degree of badness to other and realised that  are scare most  and believe most that their time is coming.SLOC/SPDC is reaching to a-no-return point now and needed significant amount of pressure to force them down.


Best wishes

Pan-yoma