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Who is doing what? (r)



Dear Netters,

Some paranoid persons attacked me as "One of the Ne Win Savior".  Try to
make character assination on me.  I am very busy to translate our "Charter
97" but I already have an article which was the first draft of our Charter
97.  I sent this article from UCLA conference with the help of Pwint Htun
to Bkk post and it was printed on October 27.  You all can read this
article and judge by yourself I am praising Ne Win or I am seeking a
solution for our country that will give a peaceful transition from
dictatorship to democracy.

with respect

Htun Aung Gyaw

X-Originating-IP: [206.117.169.71]
X-PH: V4.1@xxxxxxxxxxx (Cornell Modified) 
To: rbachoe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: hag2@xxxxxxxxxxx (Htun Aung Gyaw), htethtet1@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Burma's dilemma by U Htun Aung Gyaw
Date: Sun, 05 Oct 1997 08:29:37 PDT

Hi,

I am sending this email on behalf of U Htun Aung Gyaw.  Please contact 
him at either hag2@xxxxxxxxxxx or htethtet1@xxxxxxxxxxx

Thanks.

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Burma's Dilemma By Htun Aung Gyaw

	Social scientists regard Burma as a strange country with its own unique 
dynamic.  Most decline to predict what lies in Burma's future.  Since 
her release from house arrest in 1994, Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi 
has consistently called for dialogue with the government, but the State 
Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) has rejected her request.  
Recently, however, this impasse has shown signs of change.  After Burma 
was admitted to ASEAN  a few months ago, SLORC held its first meeting 
with the NLD party, and  it offered a second meeting in September . This 
meeting, however, never pushed through for two reasons: first, the SLORC 
offer came on very short notice, and took  NLD Chairman U Aung  Shwe and 
two other Central Committee members by surprise.  More importantly, 
however, the NLD party, which won a landslide victory in the 1990 
election, rejected the second meeting because SLORC excluded Aung San 
Suu Kyi and two Vice Chairmans. Even though NLD rejected the second 
meeting, SLORC permitted Aung San Suu Kyi's youngest son to visit his 
mother--the first visit she has had from family since 1995. 
		On September 27 and 28 the NLD held its ninth anniversary meeting a 
successful event undiminished by several minor problems.  The event is 
significant in light of more serious difficulties the NLD has 
encountered in recent years.  The party has thrice tried to call their 
party meetings in the past three years, but on each occasion the SLORC 
temporarily detained NLD representatives and blocked the meeting.  This 
past September, however, SLORC allowed the meeting to take place, with 
some restrictions such as a 300 person attendance limit. Even though 
police (who were guarding the meeting's entrance) turned some 
representatives away, more than 700 representatives were in attendance.  
That SLORC ignored this overcrowding implies that the junta may be 
softening its grip.  If so, the change is likely due to Burma's entrance 
into ASEAN.
	In the main, such moves are intended to lend support to the Foreign 
Minister, who is attending the UN General Assembly meeting in New York 
and attempting to counter criticism expressed by the United States and 
Western countries.  Moreover, SLORC appears worried about the 
Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem)Forum II next year in London.  The British 
Foreign Minister has already expressed Great Britain's unwillingness to 
allow SLORC leaders to attend the upcoming meeting.

The Past
	Military general have ruled Burma since 1962.  Within this 35 year 
period, military personnel have controlled Burma's social, political, 
economic, and educational affairs.  Before the outbreak of the 1988 
nationwide demonstration, Ne Win realized that in order to survive, his 
socialist regime needed to change its political course.  He called for 
an extraordinary party congress in 1988 and admitted the failure of the 
long and short term economic plans.  He suggested that the party hold a 
nationwide referendum and find out if the Burmese people wanted a plural 
party system or one party system.  People were thrilled at this 
suggestion, because it came from someone acknowledged to be most 
politically powerful man in Burma, someone known as "Number One".  
Unfortunately, the Burmese Socialist Program Party (BSPP) rejected his 
advice but allowed Ne Win to retire from the government.  Yet following 
on the heels of Ne Win's suggestion, this rejection proved a critical 
mistake. The original suggestion of multi-party rule had come from so 
highly placed a source that people regarded it as an important 
opportunity.  Their hope for freedom, for which many had hungered since 
1962, swelled. The BSPP's decision to reject Ne Win's political advice, 
but to liberalize the economy sparked a nationwide protest that ended 26 
years of BSPP rule.
	Two long months of demonstrations produced many underground 
organizations consisting of students, citizens, former politicians, and 
former military officers.  Among them was the daughter of Burma's 
national hero and martyr Aung San.  Aung San Suu Kyi joined the 
demonstration while visiting Burma from Britain to help her ailing 
mother.  Still, the political figures of this opposition movement were 
not united.  Although there was a power vacuum left by an apparently 
paralyzed BSPP, none of the squabbling opposition forces could fill the 
void.  The only institution in a position to fill the vacuum was the 
military.  Hence, the strongest and most well institutionalized group 
since Burma's independence, the army, took control for the second time 
since independence. 

The Present
 	SLORC's main objective is to promote the country's economy and to 
establish a relationship with the opposition modeled on the Indonesian 
arrangement.  Accordingly, the military must assume the lead in 
politics.  SLORC leaders believe that if they improve the country's 
economy, they will consolidate their hold on power.  Yet a combination 
of the regime's gross human rights violations and Aung San Suu Kyi's 
call for economic sanction, (heeded by the US and Scandinavian 
countries) have proven difficult obstacles to this consolidation.  
Despite Burma's admission to ASEAN, its high inflation rate shows no 
signs of decrease.  
	
Poland and Burma
The Burmese experience calls to mind events in Eastern Europe in the 
late 1980s. In such countries, six crucial steps stand out.   
1. Economic and political centralization led to economic failure and 
popular political dissent;
2.  Demonstrations erupted and a united opposition took shape; 
3.  The state introduced free market reforms in the hopes that people 
would be satisfied with this change, calm down, and allow the state to 
reconsolidate its power;
4.  When they could not improve the worsening economy and faced more 
demonstrations, they accepted the multi-party system and allowed the 
formation of opposition parties;
5. Round table negotiation next took place between the state and the 
opposition, with the latter eventually drawing up an appropriate 
constitution;
6.  After the constitutional drafting, the emerging government held 
elections and transferred the power to whoever won at the polls. Hence 
the democratic system emerged. 
	Such a progression occurred against the tide of state demands. All 
ruling juntas wanted to control the majority of seats in the parliament.  
In the end, the democratic settlement took shape in terms of a 
compromise between the old state and the opposition, and in most case 
this produced a smooth transition without blood shed.
	Burma, as I mentioned above, has a unique character.  Steps one to four 
were the same as in the Eastern Europe model, yet by steps five and six, 
a unique Burmese pattern takes shape.  Burma held its election without 
first drafting an appropriate constitution-moved which reverse the 
European sequence.  In those elections, the elections returns did not 
favor SLORC. Still, SLORC gave the excuse that they could not hand over 
power without a strong constitution, and refused to hand power over to 
the winning party.   They have been drawing up the new constitution 
since 1993. SLORC has also been trying to promote the country's deeply 
corrupt and long mismanaged economic system.  Still, the regime's 
suppression of emerging political elements and the soaring basic 
consumer prices will make SLORC the victim of a future economic failure. 
	Unlike Burma, Poland transferred power to the winning opposition party, 
Solidarity.  Lech Welesa became the first democratically elected 
President.  But the Polish people thought that if they elected the 
Solidarity party their living conditions would be improved within short 
period.  These expectations proved unreasonable.  No government can 
improve the country's long ailing economy in  one term.  After four 
years of essentially unchanged living conditions, Poles voted the former 
communist party leader into office at the next election.  Hence, 
economic failure is the main factor which brought down the existing 
regime.  Poles said "Walesa brought democracy to us we appreciated him 
but his time is over now."  The Polish Communist Party tolerated the 
opposition's existence and compromised with them to work towards a 
peaceful way to establish democracy.  Later they got a chance to rule 
the country by free elections in the second term.  They increasingly 
moved away from their formerly violent ruling tactics. 
	
National Convention
	In Burma, the military leaders called a National Convention with 810 
delegates to draw up a new constitution.  Among the delegates, only 100 
were elected representatives eligible to participate.  The NC committee 
set strict rules and blunt guidelines.  In this framework it was 
stipulated that the army would take a leading role in politics.  This 
provision created the tension between NLD and SLORC.  As a result, NLD 
walked out from the conference.  Without the majority of the elected NLD 
representatives, the NC became meaningless.  SLORC tried to punish NLD 
by capturing second line leaders and their supporters.  In addition, 
they stopped the weekend speeches made by Aung San Suu Kyi and two Vice 
Presidents. 
	Aung San Suu Kyi wrote a series about Burma in Mianichi Shinbun daily.  
Her recent article explained the meaning of the word  "Veteran."  She 
called attention to prominent former soldiers, including Bo Hmu Aung who 
was one of the members "Thirty comrades, " a group that included Aung 
San and Ne Win.  She praised Bo Hmu Aung as a faithful soldier as well 
as a good son of Burma who endlessly sought his country's development.  
This year, Bo Hmu Aung and former veterans wrote a letter to SLORC and 
urged them to talk with the NLD party; SLORC, however, responded by 
warning the veterans to stay away from politics.  Her Article's 
"Veteran" indirectly attacked Ne Win for his ignorance because he 
started the military rule in Burma and is the only one who has the 
strongest influence in the army.
	
Burma and Indonesia
	This month, Ne Win emerged once more onto the world stage.  He visited 
Indonesia and met with President Suharto.  The move took on particular 
significance because many believe that Ne Win urged SLORC leaders to 
adopt Indonesia's model.  In fact, Indonesia and Burma have two striking 
similarities: both are controlled by the army, and in both their armies 
emerged under the Japanese occupation.  In other respects, the two 
countries are more completely different.   
	Take, for example, the role of US support in regime formation. The US 
government spent billions of dollars and used its soldiers to protect 
states in the region against communist influence in Indochina and 
Southeast Asia.  Indonesia wiped out the communist influence with its 
own army and without US intervention. That's why they got a lot of 
financial and technical support from the West, US and Japan. In Burma, 
on the other hand, the generals wiped out democratically elected 
government by force and adopted Socialism for its future course.  They 
criticized western countries as capitalist and neo colonialist, and 
rejected Western aid.  Instead, they worked more closely with the Soviet 
Union and Eastern Block countries.  Under Ne Win's rule, the regime 
turned down many Western scholarship, and only a few Burmese scholars 
were sent to Eastern Europe and Russia.  
	Worse, under Ne Win, the government nationalized big and small scale 
industries, moves which shrank the country's production rate and size.  
Burmese born native minorities such as Indian-Burmese and Chinese 
-Burmese were discriminated against and virtually wiped out in the 
country.  The military, ranging from corporal to Brigadier General, soon 
occupied all the top business sectors and administrative offices in 
nationalized concerns. Technocrats and professionals were put aside and 
humiliated.
	In June 1975, before the outbreak of the June Student Demonstration, 
BSPP Central Executive committee member Dr. Hla Han explained to the 
Veterinary students that in the past the country's population was only 
14 million but by 1975, this had risen to over 30 million.  The consumer 
rate more than double but the volume of rice production remained about 
the same.  In consequence, Burmese faced rice shortages.  Yet in this 
explanation, Dr. Hla Han failed to address an obvious counter-example : 
Thailand's population also soared more than that in Burma, yet that 
country became one of the leading rice producers and exported much of 
this produce to the world.
       On the other hand, before Suharto reigns, Indonesia will have 
begun to import rice from foreign countries, although when the current 
president took power Indonesia imported no rice whatsoever.  Suharto's 
regime embraced many Indonesian technocrats, economists, native Chinese 
business men to help rebuild the country and successfully overcome the 
double-digit inflation in the late 1960s.
Now Indonesia is one of the leading countries in ASEAN.  
	Another crucial fact that has helped Indonesia's prosperity has been 
the discovery of oil fields in its off shore coast; the find gave the 
country a  tremendous opportunity to boost its economy.  In Burma, oil 
wells are drying out and now Burma has been importing oil from Japan and 
other countries.
	The final and crucial difference between these countries is their 
respective leadership patterns.  Indonesia is ruled by one person, 
Suharto.  Nobody can compare or challenge his authority.  He became an 
institution in Indonesia with the support of both military and 
technocrats.  In contrast, SLORC is runs by a group of military generals 
who hold relatively equal rank and status with one another.  SLORC lacks 
a strong leader like Ne Win.  The relative parity among SLORC's members 
creates trouble: as the Burmese saying runs; "Two lions cannot live 
together in a cave".
	In short, Indonesia's political stability has until now had a great 
deal to do with the presence of a strong man, and the authority he 
exercises.   But its stabilization also depends on that one person, and 
the question of succession once again raises the specter of turmoil and 
uncertainty. For both reasons, the Indonesian model is not a fit guide 
for Burma's democratization process and future development.



Future Course

	NLD and SLORC have confronted each other since 1988.  Their 
confrontation became heated when NLD boycotted from National Convention 
and its leader Aung San Suu Kyi called for economic sanction. In return, 
SLORC froze the NLD movements and detained many of its members.   The 
death grip which the two parties held on one another, however, seemed to 
ease this month. Both sides recently claimed the same objectives: a 
willingness to build a truly democratic country and the preservation of 
the nation.  The parties' main disagreement regards which of the two 
will be allowed to lead the country on its future course. The NLD 
already have a mandate to rule, won in the past elections.  SLORC, for 
its part, maintains the coercive apparatus to compel Burmese to accept 
its rule.   If both parties can forget past confrontations and personal 
hatred, they might begin to start round table negotiations marked by 
mutual respect. Such a development would do much to brighten up Burma's 
future.
	The only way out of this dead lock is a national convention.  NLD needs 
to return to the convention and SLORC needs to withdraw guide lines and 
strict regulations it as laid down to hamper such assemblies.  The 
convention needs a free discussion.  Minority rights need to discussed 
and protected --and for this the NLD seems most suitable.  To reach an 
agreement or a settlement through force is not good for Burma's 
long-term interests.  Some radical minority groups wanted a full 
independence from Burma; such cases will be solved by NLD with the help 
of the army.  Within the process of drawing up a new constitution, both 
parties understand each other and might gain "trust" on the common 
ground of their shared interest in preventing the nation from 
disintegrating.   
	The National Democratic Front (NDF) declared in 1982 that they wanted 
to stay in the Union and so it disregarded the succession right.  KNU 
leader General Bo Mya and KIO leader Brang Seng expressed in the DAB 
meeting their intentions to stay in the union, but they wanted a 
guarantee of protected and genuine minority rights.  NLD is capable of 
solving these problems, because many NLD representatives and members 
fled to minority-controlled areas, and lived there after 1988.  They 
understand minority demands, and they are building trust between the two 
sides.  Other active student organizations, like the All Burma Students' 
Democratic Front (ABSDF) have strong connections with minorities.  The 
ABSDF is well trusted by the Burmese people and the armed minority 
groups because they are the sons and daughters of the people of 
different back ground, fighting the military rule with the minorities.  
Given these characteristics, both NLD exiles and ABSDF can serve as a 
bridge between minorities and NLD. 

The Role of U Ne Win    
U Ne Win introduced military rule in Burma and was known as second 
father of the modern Burmese army.  He is the only man on earth who 
still has influence over the Burmese army.  If he wants to solve the 
present situation by using his influence within the SLORC to convince 
the regime to agree to round table negotiation with NLD without 
restriction, the problems will likely be solved smoothly.  But U Ne Win 
is not likely to do this, although if he does, he will be the one most 
admired by the Burmese people.
After the recently ended NLD meeting, Aung San Suu Kyi made a thankful 
comment to SLORC for allowing them to hold their party's annual meeting.  
She then called for a true dialogue based on mutual respect. The first 
step in such a dialogue would be to build peace and trust between NLD 
and SLORC by releasing all political prisoners.  If SLORC generals would 
notice that true peace starts with negotiation and they can get benefit 
from it, Burma's flag will raise again in the world with dignity.  Many 
Burmese exiles will return back to their homeland to rebuild the 
country--and they will carry with them knowledge learned from outside 
world.  Otherwise, soaring inflation rates and closed universities and 
colleges will harm future generations and undermine the country's 
development.   

Htun Aung Gyaw