Nation : Nigerian junta can show Bu

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The Nation:July 15,1998
EDITORIAL: Nigerian junta can show Burma the way

Officially General Sani Abacha, Nigeria's ruthless and paranoid former
dictator, died of a heart attack. But the rumour mills in Africa's most
populous nation are working overtime -- the general, many believe, died
from ''over-exertion in bed'' after popping a few Viagra anti-impotence
pills. 

It's no surprise this story has gained currency: Abacha was known to enjoy
the company of prostitutes, and many were flown into Abuja, the capital, by
businessmen cronies. Abacha would meet these women -- many from Russia and
eastern Europe -- in military safe houses or his fortified presidential
compound, Aso Rock. 

If the rumours were true, Abacha would be the first dictator to fall victim
to Viagra. Yet another rumour had it that Abacha was poisoned by a member
of his inner circle who realised that Nigeria was doomed so long as the
dictator remained. 

The death of Abacha's arch-nemesis, opposition leader Moshood Abiola, while
not as salacious, was no less controversial. He collapsed last week while
meeting a delegation from the US to discuss the release of political
prisoners. An international team of doctors was rushed to Nigeria to help
verify the circumstances of his death in the bid to put a lid on political
unrest. Riots subsided after the doctors found he died of ''natural
causes''. 

Nevertheless, Abiola couldn't have died at a worse time. On the day of his
death, there was widespread expectation that he would be released by new
military chief Abdulsalam Abubakar to negotiate a way around the political
roadblock left by the 1993 elections which Abiola was widely believed to
have won. This was ignored by the ruling military and when Abiola declared
himself president a year later, he was jailed by Abacha. 

Since then the junta has faced tremendous international pressure to respect
human rights, so much so that Abacha promised to restore democracy by
October. But many took this with a pinch of salt, especially after the
general was declared the sole candidate for presidential elections set for
next month. 

It appears that new leader Abubakar is determine to set Nigeria on a
democratic path. As a show of good faith, he released a number of political
prisoners soon after taking power. Abiola's death, however, has thrown a
spanner in the works. After all, the opposition leader had the electoral
mandate to play a key role in a new Nigeria. 

But despite Abiola's death, Abubakar should not shirk from his mission to
nudge Nigeria back onto the track to democracy. This week he is expected to
announce a plan for political transition. This will be a clear step forward
for a country which has only enjoyed 10 years of civilian rule over the
past four decades. 

The hope for democracy in Nigeria has thrown the spotlight on the plight of
another opposition leader who, like Abiola, won an election which was later
nullified by the military -- Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi. Only last week, the
Burmese junta sought to tighten the screws on Suu Kyi and her National
League for Democracy. 

Nigeria's apparent bold move towards democracy is in clear contrast to
Burma's retrogression. This is partly due to the different roles played by
the Commonwealth and Asean. The Commonwealth, a 53-nation grouping of
Britain and its ex-colonies, has consistently kept the Nigerian military on
its toes. It suspended Nigeria's membership after Abacha executed
playwright and pro-democracy activist Ken Saro-Wiwa and it gave the junta
until October to bring in democratic reforms or face expulsion. 

One wonders if Asean has the guts and gumption to do likewise: can the
forum summon the political will to threaten Burma with expulsion? Foreign
Minister Surin Pitsuwan has lately shown remarkable leadership by calling
for Asean to junk its much-criticised constructive engagement policy. But
he needs to do more if he is to get Asean's authoritarian members to lean
on the Burmese junta. 

For the Burmese military, however, the writing is on the wall. The
Indonesian model it wanted to copy has fallen by the wayside since
Suharto's ouster in May. Now another military junta is providing the
example of a peaceful transition to democracy. So what is Burma waiting
for? 



The Nation