The BurmaNet News: August 4, 1998

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------------------------ BurmaNet ------------------------
 "Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"
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The BurmaNet News: August 4, 1998
Issue #1063

Please Note: Yesterday's BurmaNet News -- August 3, 1998 -- should have
been identified as Issue #1062.

HEADLINES:
==========
THE NATION: US DIPLOMAT VISITS SUU KYI 
THE NATION: RENEWED ATTACKS ON OPPOSITION LEADER 
SCMP: CHINA AIDS PYONGYANG WEAPONS SALE 
NCGUB: CABINET RESOLUTION 
SDU: MESSAGE ON THE CALL TO CONVENE PARLIAMENT 
ASIAWEEK: "THE IDEA IS VERY POOR" 
BKK POST (EDITORIAL): COST OF TENSION ON OUR BORDERS 
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THE NATION: US DIPLOMAT VISITS SUU KYI 
3 August, 1998 

A senior US diplomat gained access to the home of Burmese opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi yesterday as the country's junta clamped down ahead of the
10th anniversary of bloody street demonstrations.

US charge d'affaires Kent Wiedemann visited the National League for
Democracy (NLD) leader after being turned away last week by security forces
and spoke to her through an intermediary, an embassy source said.

The NLD leader is recovering from a grueling standoff with junta officials
last week on a road outside Rangoon which ended with her being forcibly
taken back to the capital.

"She is frail, but she is recovering," the source said after Wiedemann's
visit.

Although few details of the discussions emerged, it is understood that the
NLD leader asked for more foreign diplomats to visit her for talks on
Burma's political deadlock.

Heavily armed troops have been stationed at strategic junctions around
Rangoon in the past few days in a bid to smother dissent in a month many
expect to test the patience of the military government.

The US, Australian and New Zealand embassies last Friday asked for United
Nations intervention to force the country's military leaders into a genuine
dialogue with its democratically elected government. Possibly in response
to international criticism, the junta allowed about 100 supporters to visit
Suu Kyi at her home on Saturday.

Saturday is the tenth anniversary of a military crack-down on pro-democracy
demonstrators which left thousands dead, according to unofficial tallies.

Although diplomats and analysts see little opportunity for democracy
advocates to exploit the anniversary, more is expected on Aug 21, when the
NLD has said the junta must convene Parliament or face unspecified
consequences.

The NLD-led opposition won 1990 polls by a landslide, but the junta has
refused to relinquish power.

Saturday's anniversary will be an emotional occasion for students, many of
whom took part in what is known as the '8/8/88 uprising' but have since
been denied even the right to study following the closure of colleges in
December 1996.

International human-rights groups say some students are still held prisoner
in Rangoon's Insein prison, while hundreds more have gone into hiding since
the crackdown. Others have joined resistance groups such as the All Burma
Students Front, which the ruling State Peace and Development Council
accuses of terrorism and plotting to destabilise the country.

But the escalation in tensions ahead of the anniversary has not been the
work of the junta or the students.

It was sparked by Suu Kyi's decision to try to meet provincial party
officials, a move seen as an open challenge to the junta's authority and a
signal of a change in strategy within the NLD.

The Nobel peace laureate was blocked for six days last week on a country
bridge 26 kilometres from Rangoon while trying to get to a meeting with
provincial supporters.

Her food supplies ran out, and fears were expressed for her health when the
junta late last Wednesday forced her from the car and drove her back to the
capital.

Suu Kyi, who was reportedly suffering from dehydration and a fever,
demanded the release of jailed supporters and a date for direct talks with
the junta.

"I shall continue to go out of Rangoon again and again as soon as I recover
until these conditions are met," she was quoted as saying by a spokesman.

It was her third attempt to speak to provincial party members in recent
weeks and follows a military ban on NLD officials leaving their local
areas, a ban Suu Kyi has told supporters to ignore.

Other than marking a departure from the NLD strategy of avoiding direct
confrontation, the new tactic of open disobedience has brought the
international spotlight back on Burma. UN Sec-Gen Kofi Annan plans to send
assistant secretary-general for political affairs Alvaro de Soto to Burma
in September or October.

On Friday and Saturday Western powers, including Britain, France and the
European Union, admonished the military council for its "callous" treatment
of Suu Kyi during her roadside standoff. 

****************************************************************

THE NATION: RENEWED ATTACKS ON OPPOSITION LEADER
3 August, 1998 

Reuters

RANGOON -- Khin Nyunt, a powerful member of Burma's ruling junta, has
delivered a strong attack on opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, accusing
her of colluding with foreign embassies to incite unrest, state-run
newspapers said yesterday.

The newspapers quoted Khin Nyunt, secretary one of the ruling State Peace
and Development Council (SPDC), as telling a teachers seminar on Saturday
that Suu Kyi's recent car sit-in protest had been a well-orchestrated
opposition attempt to destabilise the political situation in Burma.

"The so-called NLD [National League for Democracy] leader, who is always
criticising and opposing the government, attempted to go to some places in
the delta and midland to incite riot and cause unrest," Khin Nyunt said.
Suu Kyi is reportedly recuperating from dehydration after the six-day
protest in suburban Rangoon that she was forced to end last Wednesday.

The Nobel peace laureate was stopped at a bridge near a village on July 24
and prevented from going to the western township of Bessein to meet
supporters. She was told to return to Rangoon, but she refused and began a
sit-in protest instead.

Security personnel forcibly removed Suu Kyi from her car on July 29 and
took her back home.

Khin Nyunt dismissed the NLD's charge that Suu Kyi had been abducted and
that this was a criminal act.

"Whatever the way may be, this act was carried out on humanitarian grounds
and with genuine sympathy to save a life," he said. "It was a noble deed
and caused a good condition.

"This act, however, would not be appreciated by the opposition
destructionist group and their masters, for they expected that
uncontrollable situation would break out in Myanmar so that they could
pressure Myanmar at the meeting of [Asean] foreign ministers in Manila."

The United States, the European Union and Australia have strongly
criticised the Burmese government for restricting Suu Kyi's movement and
asked the United Nations to push the ruling military to start dialogue with
her party.

Khin Nyunt accused foreign embassies, which he did not name, of working
with Suu Kyi to oppose the government and said the people of Burma were
duty bound to crush their activities. 

****************************************************************

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST: CHINA AIDS PYONGYANG WEAPONS SALE 
4 August, 1998 by William Barnes 

Burma has been sold 20 artillery pieces by North Korea in the first trade
deal between the two countries since Pyongyang assassins killed four
members of the South Korean cabinet during their visit to Rangoon in 1983.

China is believed to have brokered the deal for the 130mm field guns as
part of its efforts to bring about a rapprochement between the two
authoritarian regimes.

"There is no point in having a group of three if two of its members aren't
talking to each other," said this week's Jane's Defence Weekly, quoting a
diplomat in Rangoon.

Before the 1983 blast, reclusive former junta leader General Ne Win and his
daughter were said to be regular visitors to Pyongyang.

"The size of the deal is not really important. China is trying to bring the
two sides together and this is the first substantive evidence that this is
happening," said Jane's correspondent Bruce Hawke.

China is understood to have tried last year to encourage Burma to move
closer to its pariah-status twin - at least in much of the world - with a
large soft loan as, effectively, a bribe. The Burmese are thought to have
taken this offer round to the South Koreans, who countered with a US$120
million (HK$929 million) credit line to purchase petroleum.

The credit line was arranged through one of the chaebols (Korean
conglomerates) with extensive interests in the country.

China is still believed to be pressing its attentions on Burma, while the
regional crisis has deprived South Korea of any spare cash to throw around.

Military analysts believe two Chinese arms shipments may have already gone
to Burma this year.

Rangoon broke off ties with North Korea a month after agents from Pyongyang
planted a bomb in the capital that killed 15 people, including four
visiting South Korean ministers. The Burmese security forces later killed
one agent in a shootout and captured two more.

Diplomatic ties have not been reinstated.

The artillery pieces, with a range of 27km, are of the same highly
manoeuvrable Russian design that proved so irritating to the American and
South Vietnamese forces during the Vietnam War.

They can be dragged behind a truck, mounted on a tracked vehicle and even
manhandled by soldiers over short distances.

It is not clear if the guns were made in Russia or North Korea. Nor is it
obvious what immediate military use the Burmese Army might have for the
guns as the regime's few remaining ethnic rebels have long abandoned
fighting in fixed positions in favour of limited guerilla war.

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NCGUB: CABINET RESOLUTION 
3 August, 1998 from <ncgub@xxxxxxxxxxx> 

DECLARATION OF THE NATIONAL COALITION GOVERNMENT OF THE UNION OF BURMA

We, the cabinet of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma,
meeting in Sydney, Australia, July 12-24, hereby-

Express our thanks to the Australian Government, the New South Wales Labour
Council and the Australian people for their assistance in making this
meeting possible in Sydney,


Acknowledge that the investment sanction, the suspension of GSP privileges,
the visa bans, the discouragement of business with the Burmese military
junta initiated by the United States, Canada, the European Union and the
United Kingdom, and the boycott activities initiated by the grassroots
movements worldwide have created conditions conducive to a peaceful
resolution of the political problem in Burma,


Call on the governments and grassroots movements to maintain their
pressure, and on the international financial institutions, such as the
World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank,
to refrain from resuming loans and grants to the junta until a dialogue for
transition to democracy takes place,


Express our gratitude to all governments, individuals and organizations who
have worked tirelessly and selflessly to assist the peoples of Burma in
their efforts to restore human rights and democracy to Burma,


Fully support the decisions by the NLD's May 27 Party Congress calling for
the convening the Parliament by August 21 and rejecting any constitution
drafted without the consent of the people,


Express our firm belief that the call by the NLD to convene the Parliament
by August 21 is to fulfill the will of the people as expressed through the
1990 general elections,


Call on Parliaments, Congresses, elected representatives, labor unions,
governments, religious institutions, international organizations and the
international community at large to support the effort by the NLD to
convene the Parliament and bring democracy to Burma,


Encourage the people of Burma to rally around the NLD and extend their
support to the effort to convene the Parliament,

Re-affirm our commitment to the establishment of a multi-party
parliamentary democracy within the framework of a genuine federal union,

Affirm that the forces of democracy in Burma remain strong and ready to
serve the people,

Re-affirm a strong commitment to the principle that the will of the people
shall be the basis of the authority of government as declared in the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights,

Welcome the initiative taken by Thailand and the Philippines, and the
support given by Japan to that initiative, to introduce a "flexible
engagement" policy at the July 24-26 meeting of ASEAN and its dialogue
partners in Manila,

Applaud the July 16, 1998 resolution of the European Parliament
highlighting human rights violations in Burma, and agree with it's call on
the European Union and Council and the UN Security Council to impose
economic sanction against the Burmese military junta and to prohibit any
investment until violations of human rights are stopped.

Express gratitude to the Government of the Republic of Korea for expressing
its support to the convening of the Parliament in Burma, and to the
dialogue partners of ASEAN, who actively supported the political and
personal rights of the NLD leaders and members, as well as the UN Human
Rights Special Rapporteur and human rights organizations who immediately
responded to the recent repression and restrictions imposed against elected
NLD representatives,

Welcome the resolutions on the situation of human rights in Burma adopted
in consensus by the UN General Assembly and the UN Commission on Human
Rights for the past seven consecutive years,

Urge the United States, the other nations and the international agencies to
recognize that because the junta is so heavily dependent on the narcotics
trade and so closely aligned with well-known heroin traffickers, a
political solution to Burma's problems is a prerequisite for a credible
counter-narcotics effort in Burma, and therefore to ensure that no funds
are provided to the military, or in cooperation with the regime.

Call on international agencies and non-government organizations not to
provide assistance to the regime, or in concert or cooperation with any
agency of the regime until substantial progress is made towards a
transition to democracy. Under the present circumstances, conditions do not
exist for NGOs and the international agencies to assist the needy people of
Burma without directly or indirectly supporting the ruling generals.

Call on China, the other neighbors and the international community to
embargo sale of arms and war supplies to the Burmese military junta, and

Call on Japan to reconsider the decision to renew Official Development
Assistance to the military junta without assurances that a substantive
political dialogue will take place with the NLD and the ethnic leaders.

Note with grave concern that:

· The ruling generals are pursuing a policy of armed confrontation with
Burma's ethnic peoples, 

· Forced labor and forced relocation by the military are still the
prevalent practices   in Burma,

· Laws restricting fundamental rights are still in force, 

· Politicians and activists are arbitrarily being imprisoned, and 

· Travel restrictions are being imposed on Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and all
elected NLD representatives.

Resolve to:

· Launch an international campaign in support of the NLD's call for the
convening of Parliament by August 21, 

· Seek the assistance of Burmese and international experts to draft
national socioeconomic plans for the transitional period toward democracy
in Burma, including a conceptual framework to help revitalize the crumbling
economy in the short run as well as produce a sustainable economic
development in the long run. 

· Implement a national reconciliation program designed to strengthen unity
and solidarity among all the ethnic nationalities and provide opportunities
to them to develop a common vision for a future democratic Federal Union of
Burma. 

· Launch a strategic diplomatic campaign in order to mobilize international
support for the Burmese democracy movement and to impose effective pressure
against the Burmese military regime, and 

· Establish The Burma Fund to implement programs envisaged by the NCGUB and
for it to conduct policy research for the reconstruction of Burma.

We call on all the patriotic forces inside and outside Burma to unite and
redouble their efforts to end militarism in Burma and to build a genuine
democratic federal union where equality, justice and self-determination of
all ethnic nationalities are guaranteed.

SYDNEY MEETING -- NATIONAL COALITION GOVERNMENT OF THE UNION OF BURMA
12-24 July 1998  (Sydney, Australia)

Attendees:
Prime Minister, Dr. SEIN WIN, MP, Paukkaung
Minister for Asia & Pacific, U TEDDY BURI, MP, Loikaw 2
Minister for Federal Affairs, U KHUN MARKO BAN, MP, Pekon
Minister for Information, U MAUNG MG AYE, MP, Mandalay NE1
Minister for Justice, U THEIN OO, MP, Mandalay SW2 
Minister for Labor, Dr. SANN AUNG, MP, Ingabu 2
Minister for North & South America, U BO HLA TINT, MP, Mogok 2	 	

Invited but unable to attend: 
Minister for South Asia , Dr. TINT SWE, MP, Pale 2
Minister for Health & Education, Dr. ZAHLETHANG, MP, Falam 2
Minister for Social Welfare, U THA NOE, MP, Rathedaung

Observers:
U DANIEL AUNG, MP, Mong Ping 
U TIN HTUT, MP, Einme
U WIN KHET, Vice Chairman, National Council of the Union of Burma
AMANDA ZAPPIA, Representative (Australia) of the NCGUB
BEAUDEE ZAWMIN, Office of the Prime Minister
MINN AUNG MYINT, Burma Office - Sydney	
Dr. MYINT CHO, NCGUB Office - Bangkok
U MYO WIN, NCGUB Headquarters
U SOE PYNE, Office of the Prime Minister
Dr. THAUNG HTUN, Representative for UN Affairs, NCGUB

****************************************************************

SHAN DEMOCRATIC UNION: MESSAGE ON THE CALL TO CONVENE PARLIAMENT 
2 August, 1998 from <tzang@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 

The Shan Democratic Union (SDU) joins hands with the National League for
Democracy (NLD) and the people of Burma in support of the recent call of
the elected Members of Parliament, both Burman and non-Burmans, addressed
to the military regime to convene the long-delayed Parliament.

The SDU also urges elected MPs to heed of the people's mandate given them
in 1990: The people wants them in power and not the Generals. Power has
been handed over to them by ballots and by the people eight years ago. It
is time they wield this power and not wait for the generals to hand over
power.

At the same time, we urge the United Nations, democratic governments, ASEAN
leaders and governments, the Japanese government, the government of India
and China, to take a united stand against the SPDC or SLORC II.

We urge states and governments who supported resolutions passed by the
United Nations that call upon the defacto military regime in Burma to
recognize the results of the May 1990 elections.

It is not right and it has been immensely damaging to the country for power
to be monopolized by only one element of the state -- the military -- as
has been the case in Burma. The time where power is held solely by one
group of men is now a thing of the past. Like the rest of the world, we
believe that power should not be monopolized, but shared, and competed for
by groups, classes, and societal segments.

We believe from statements made by the military junta over the years that
it is working toward the restoration of democracy in Burma should be seen
for what it is: empty rhetoric. The regime's pleas for financial and other
assistance on the grounds that it is working to restore democracy cannot,
and should not, therefore be taken seriously. There is only one possible
rational response to the junta's hypocrisy: "Stop the war, open dialogue,
and convene parliament if you want us to help."

However, we are willing to give the currently ruling generals a role in the
transition process, if they are genuine in their expressed desire to
restore democracy in the Union of Burma. We also wish to assure the
generals, officers, and soldiers of the tatmadaw that they will be honored
if they respect the clearly expressed will of the sovereign people.

In view of the radical shift taking place throughout the world, from
authoritarian rule and closed societies to democratic governance and open
society, we hold that there is nothing to be gained by anyone, least of all
tatmadaw men and women, from continued military rule. We believe that Burma
and its people are ready for a democratic transition.

We therefore call upon the tatmadaw and its generals and officers to prove
that they are patriotic by working hand-in-hand with the elected
representatives of the people in the transition process. They can be
assured that as patriots, they have nothing to fear from either the
parliament or the people.

The Executive Committee
SDU - Shan Democratic Union
(Kham Zam)

****************************************************************

ASIAWEEK: "THE IDEA IS VERY POOR" 
7 August, 1998 

Ohn Gyaw rejects open criticism in ASEAN

Unlike Cambodia, Myanmar is already an ASEAN member -- but it is proving no
less awkward a problem.

While the ASEAN and ARF meetings were taking place in Manila, democracy
activist Aung San Suu Kyi was camped outside Yangon in her car -- not
budging after being prevented by authorities from seeing her supporters in
the countryside. The stand-off led U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright to sharply rebuke the junta. There was surprisingly blunt
criticism from within ASEAN too. Philippine Foreign Secretary Domingo
Siazon all but advocated a people-power revolution in Myanmar. His remarks
followed calls by Thailand for ASEAN members to be more openly critical of
each other. On the eve of the Manila sessions, Myanmar Foreign Minister Ohn
Gyaw defended his government to Asiaweek's Roger Mitton.

WHY IS MYANMAR AGAINST REVIEWING ASEAN'S NON-INTERFERENCE PRINCIPLE?

It is not only our government that is against this initiative. If ever
there is anything to be thrashed out or resolved, then there are many ways
an ASEAN country may pass comments or contribute remarks or advice. So why
should there be any change of the principle in ASEAN in order to express
concern or worry?

THE PROPOSAL IS PERCEIVED BY SOME AS BEING SPECIFICALLY DIRECTED AT MYANMAR.

If so, then the idea is very poor and the change unrealistic.

SHOULD THAI FOREIGN MINISTER SURIN PITSUWAN HAVE CONSULTED YOU FIRST BEFORE
GOING PUBLIC WITH HIS PROPOSAL FOR MORE FRANK TALK AMONG ASEAN MEMBERS?

It is his own affair.

SOME SAY THE THAIS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE IDEA AT THE BEHEST OF THE AMERICANS.

Draw your own conclusions. We do not point fingers. If you study our
[response], we do not mention any country.

ARE YOU UPSET THAT MINISTER SURIN HAS NOT VISITED MYANMAR YET?

No, we are not upset. He is a busy man. He has commitments. In fact, he
plans to come over to Myanmar.

YES, AND HE HAS SAID HE WANTS TO SEE AUNG SAN SUU KYI. DOES THAT UPSET YOU?

No, why should I be upset? He is expressing what he wants to do. He can see
anyone. He can see the U.N. secretary-general. He can see the Pope.

HAVE YOU MET SUU KYI RECENTLY?

No, why should I?

SHE'S A LEADING POLITICIAN IN YOUR COUNTRY.

That's what you think.

HAVE ANY SENIOR MEMBERS OF YOUR GOVERNMENT MET HER RECENTLY FOR A DIALOGUE?

No. You know very well she made it a condition that without her there can
be no meeting, that [her party's] chairman Aung Shwe cannot see Gen. Khin
Nyunt.

DOES THAT MEAN YOU WOULD BE HAPPY TO HAVE A MEETING WITH LOWER-LEVEL
OFFICIALS FROM HER PARTY?

There is a saying in China: the one who ties the knot will have to untie it.

SO THE FIRST MOVE FOR DIALOGUE SHOULD COME FROM THEM?

Whatever your conclusion is.

SURELY THIS INFLEXIBLE ATTITUDE BY BOTH SIDES IS NOT IN THE INTERESTS OF
MYANMAR.

What we are doing is the Myanmar way. We are responsible for the whole
country. When we do something, we want to be perfect and disciplined
because our contemporary past has been chaotic. We do not want to plunge
ourselves into another chaotic situation.

WHEN WE MET IN DECEMBER, YOU SAID THINGS COULD NOT GO ON AS THEY HAD DONE,
THAT YOU HAD TO CHANGE. BUT SINCE THEN NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN MYANMAR.

What do you mean by change? It's a process that we are doing. The
democratic system and the constitutional process are going on. Inch by inch
we are making progress. We are building more roads, providing more security
to the people. We have our economic plans. Now we are concentrating on
producing more rice and other agricultural crops. And at the same time, on
the political front, the constitutional process is going on, [with]
meetings of the convening committee every alternate week, I think.

WHEN IS THE NEW CONSTITUTION GOING TO BE FINISHED AND ELECTIONS HELD?

As soon as possible. Our [ruling council] chairman Gen. Than Shwe said on
Armed Forces Day that we would not like to stay in power for a long time.
However, as long as there is a danger of disintegration, we'll have to
wait. In order to have a strong Constitution, we'll have to take time. But
we will not take an unnecessarily long period.

EVEN MALAYSIA AND INDONESIA, WHO STRONGLY PUSHED FOR YOUR MEMBERSHIP IN
ASEAN, ARE UNHAPPY THAT LITTLE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE.

If this is what they would like to express, they can do so. But this is a
very important factor we are discussing. It is the internal affairs of a
country. Not only a country in the region, but also a country which belongs
to the same association. It's just like in a boat -- if there is some
commotion in the boat, the boat will capsize. 

****************************************************************

THE BANGKOK POST: COST OF TENSION ON OUR BORDERS 
3 August, 1998 

Editorial

Hope continues that Cambodians and Burmese can agree to settle their
political problems in a peaceful manner. The percolating tension is harmful
to their international standing. And the tension and potential for violence
is also a threat to Thailand.

There has been rising political tension to our east and west in recent
days. The Burmese government decided to demonstrate its army was bigger and
tougher than democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. To the east, Cambodian
authorities conducted a stunningly successful, peaceful election for
parliament. Then they began almost immediately to throw away the good will
and respect the polls earned. They suspiciously delayed the official
results, and. refused even the idea of an investigation into claimed fraud
in some areas.

Neither country has been politically stable for some time. Both, however,
have been quiet under the control of a strong central regime. The Burmese
military junta has kept a lid on its loyal opposition by unsubtle threats.
It has not, however, been able to silence its most prominent citizen, Aung
San Suu Kyi. In Cambodia, Hun Sen has enjoyed a year of unchallenged power.
His huge communist apparatus has intimidated most of the opposition into
silence, but voters have refused to give him the total power he wanted.

Mrs Suu Kyi has stepped up her campaign of confrontation against the
dictatorship. Last week's six-day sit-in in her car caught the attention of
the world. She managed to show how tight her virtual house arrest continues
to be, as she was barred by armed force from driving the equivalent
distance of Bangkok to Chon Buri to meet friends. Australia says that Asia
is concerned about Burma, which is putting it mildly. Madeleine Albright,
the US Secretary of State, wants the United Nations to ask directly if it
can help to cool the growing crisis.

Saturday marks the 10th anniversary of the brutal army suppression of
democracy advocates, and Rangoon has been put on special military alert.
The opposition has demanded that the junta call parliament into session by
Aug 21. Political tension will escalate in the next three weeks unless
there is a show of good will from Rangoon. The soldiers in charge of the
country seem to feel that talking and negotiating with the loyal opposition
is a loss of face. With the future of their country at stake, peace talks
with Mrs Suu Kyi seem to be the only way out.

In Cambodia, the situation is far different, but the risks are similar. Hun
Sen, thankfully, is outwardly more flexible than his counterparts in the
Burmese regime. He has offered token places in his next cabinet to the two
top opposition leaders. But it is unclear just how serious he is. Election
results, even for Phnom Penh, are still not being announced. Potentially
more of a problem, Hun Sen's hand-picked election officials flatly refuse
to investigate claims of election fraud by the two opposition leaders.

The Burmese and Cambodian leaders risk paying a terrible price if they do
not negotiate with fellow citizens in the political opposition. Burmese
citizens well remember how the army quelled the 1988 political uprising at
the cost of thousands of lives. Cambodians still have sharp memories of Hun
Sen's violence in order to gain his current position as Cambodian strongman
a year ago.

We are concerned at the potential for violence in both countries, and not
only for the Burmese and Cambodian democrats. There is much risk for us
Thais. Serious political problems in our neighbours, never mind violence,
pose a threat to our own security. We already are host to tens of thousands
of refugees and illegal workers from both nations. Potential investors
include the possibility of unstable borders when they rate our country. It
is up to Burmese and Cambodians to decide on their form of government. It
is in our interest to continue to urge the regimes to include all their
citizens in the planning.

****************************************************************