NEWS - Analysis-Candles for Myanmar

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Analysis-Candles for Myanmars Bloody Anniversary

            Reuters
            06-AUG-98

            BANGKOK, Aug 6 (Reuters)- Thousands of Myanmar exiles across
            the world will light candles on Saturday to mark the 10th
anniversary of
            a bloody crackdown by the Yangon government on pro-democracy
            protesters. 

            From Washington to Sydney, Myanmar exiles promise to
remember
            August 8, 1988, when soldiers fired into a crowd of
pro-democracy
            demonstrators on the steps of Yangon city hall. 

            ``Four eights day''-- the eighth day of the eighth month of
1988--
            marked the start of a brutal military round-up of hostile
factions from
            universities, Buddhist temples and political parties across
Myanmar,
            then known as Burma. 

            The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) government
says
            35 police, 15 demonstrators and ``a few dozen rioters'' were
killed in
            the disturbances that followed the crackdown. 

            Myanmar exiles put the death toll at more than 1,000. 

            In most years the anniversary has passed quietly, but this
year the date
            coincides with a period of increased agitation by the
opposition
            National League for Democracy (NLD), which is campaigning
hard for
            democracy and human rights. 

            The NLD, led by the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi, has set
August 21
            as a deadline for the government to convene a parliament of
members
            elected at polls in May 1990. The NLD swept those polls but
the result
            was ignored by the military. 

            Diplomats say the opposition is likely to mark the
anniversary this year
            to draw attention to their demands. 

            Hampered by draconian security measures-- including six
years of
            house arrest for Suu Kyi between 1989 and 1995-- the NLDs
            movements and activities are severely curtailed. 

            But they have found several ways of stepping up pressure. 

            Suu Kyi, who won the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts
to bring
            democracy to Myanmar, has used her lack of freedom as a
stick to
            beat the government, escaping from her military minders in
Yangon
            three times in the past couple of months. 

            In her latest foray on July 24, Suu Kyi and three others
managed to get
            to a bridge near Anyarsu Village about 64 km (40 miles) from
Yangon
            before the car was stopped by security men. 

            They ordered her to return to Yangon but she refused and
began a
            sit-in, which the authorities ended forcibly on July 29. 

            Whether by accident or design, the protest was a brilliant
publicity
            triumph for Suu Kyi and attracted worldwide attention and
harsh
            criticism of the government from leading nations. 

            Suu Kyi became ill during the protest but has vowed to
venture out
            again to meet supporters as soon as she is well. Diplomats
say it is
            possible she may try to travel on Saturday or possibly hold
a party
            meeting at her lakeside residence. 

            A government spokesman told Reuters on Wednesday it would be
            ``unwise'' for Suu Kyi to try to leave Yangon on Saturday. 

            The capital has been quiet this week but is rife with
rumours of some
            sort of action planned for Saturday. 

            One Yangon-based diplomat told Reuters on Thursday he had
heard
            stories of propaganda leaflets being dropped out of bus
windows in
            Yangon but could give no details of the content. 

            ``None of us have any idea what will happen, if anything, on
Saturday
            (August 8)... there could be demonstrations,'' said the
diplomat. ``But
            everybody is looking towards the day and there are plenty of
rumours.''

            ``Saturday is market day in Yangon and that means there will
be lots of
            people on the streets already,'' the diplomat added. 

            The government appears to expect something. 

            A Myanmar government newspaper carried speeches by two
cabinet
            ministers on Thursday telling the public not to be taken in
by
            subversive groups. 

            It said ``axe-handle traitors'' were ``trying to hinder and
mar the
            development of the state by fabricating groundless rumours
and
            creating mobs.'' 

            One western diplomat who met Suu Kyi recently said he did
not
            anticipate any special activity in the capital on Saturday. 

            ``She has made no statement or anyway indicated she would
try to
            organise any kind of demonstration. There is no evidence
here in
            Rangoon (Yangon) that anything is going to happen,'' he
said. 

            Whatever happens in Yangon, activists outside the country
will
            organise rallies, functions, and candle-lit demonstrations
to mark the
            crackdown, said Aung Nai Oo, head of foreign affairs at the
All Burma
            Students Democratic Front (ABSDF). 

            ``The anniversary is very important to anyone involved and
they will try
            to mark it wherever they are,'' said a diplomat.