BBC-East Asia Today-Aug 28,1998

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East Asia Today
August 28,1998

Military Junta Warns International Community Not to Intervene as Threat of
More Demonstrations Looms


Plans for further demonstrations afoot despite juntas warnings

According to diplomats in Rangoon, the threat remains real of student
demonstrations, with the presence of security personnel, still reportedly
heavy on the streets of the Burmese capital. Meanwhile, amid calls by the
military for more talks with the opposition, National League for Democracy,
a spokesman for the junta, Hla Min, has warned the international community,
not to intervene.

Hla Min: We have our own ways and means to solve our internal issues and we
are opening the doors for discussion. We are quite confident that we will
reach an understanding. We would like to solve our internal issues on our
own.

So how serious is the threat of a return to the demonstrations of 1988,
when millions of people poured onto the streets of Burma? East Asia Today
presenter Christopher Gunness, asked the freelance journalist, Jude Smith,
who's just been in Rangoon:

Jude Smith: Certainly there are plans under foot. The NLD has made it clear
that it is ready to push it to the limit to see how far they can get. They
feel that this is their best chance, for ten years, of getting somewhere
with this government. People are expecting anything at anytime. It was
interesting on Monday when the students began the first quite small
demonstrations in two locations in Rangoon, the news went around the city
in a flash and people's reaction was: 'It's started'. They don't know
what's going to happen or when it's going to happen but they are certainly
expecting something to happen.

Christopher Gunness: How much co-ordination is there? In 1988 everyone knew
and millions came onto the streets at a certain point.

Jude Smith: People are not ready to come onto the streets en masse at the
moment. They are very frightened, generally. They believe that they will be
shot. They are very afraid of violence breaking out and people have said if
they do anything they'll be shot. I don't think it would actually take that
much to get them going. It would take a good orator like Aung San Suu Kyi,
and I think she could get probably quite a lot of people out on the
streets.

Christopher Gunness: To what extent are these demonstrations - low level as
they are - put pressure on the government in its talks with the National
League for Democracy?

Jude Smith: I think the government is as aware as people generally seem to
be of how unpopular they are, of the fact that the people would be ready to
support the opposition if they were not so afraid of being shot for doing
so. I think it must be increasing the pressure on the regime to be seen to
be trying to reach some sort of deal with the opposition.

Christopher Gunness: If there are parallels with 1988, where would you see
them?

Jude Smith: The obvious one is in the economic situation. While in 1988
when the people became quite desperate because so much currency was
withdrawn. It's not exactly the same situation, but the prices are rising
in the market all of the time and people are certainly getting poorer.
There are also fears of shortages of imported products - particularly fuel.
In fact, on Wednesday, fuel prices did shoot up. There were less cars on
the road and people seem to take that as some sort of confirmation of the
rumours that the government was running out of cash, that coffers were
about to run completely dry. In which case, I think we will see a very
similar situation.