a downward spiral and Byama's head (r)

[darnott@xxxxxxxxxxx]

I don't know: it's actually quite interesting to note the level and style
of mythological discourse -- both political and economic -- that this jolly
little piece assumes. It can only be from the keyboard of DSIF.*  The
junta's latest PR firm must be squirming (which is it, by the way?  I've
lost track. Is Lester Wolfe still on the job?)

So this powerful woman and her evil cohorts of axe-handles, destructive
elements and other traitorous minions are responsible for the downfall of
the Burmese economy and the breakup of social and political harmony!  Truly
a formidable dialogue partner for the good generals. No wonder they're
reluctant to join the dance. 

I've just been down to the basement and managed to dig out a couple of
alternative myths: one from the (Big Bad) World Bank, and another contained
in an article by one David Arnott that appeared in French last September in
"Relations Internationales et Strategiques", a journal widely read in
French government and military circles. Here are the abstracts.
______________________________

* For the uninitiated, the DSIF is the SPDC's powerful Department of
Shooting Itself in the Foot, which was very much to the fore in selecting
the symbols projected at Daw Suu's motoring expeditions. I ask you: Michael
Jackson and Madonna! In contrast, the SPDC's "Ha Ha" reaction to the
formation of CREL a few days ago was relatively polished. 

********************************

MYANMAR: POLICIES FOR SUSTAINING ECONOMIC REFORM

WORLD BANK REPORT No.14062-BA

October 16, 1995

Country Operations Division
Country Department I
East Asia and Pacific Region


                            EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                    
                              F. CONCLUSION

50.    The Government's ongoing economic reform program has
changed many facets of the Myanma economy. To achieve the goals 
of expanding exports, encouraging agriculture, and promoting 
private-sector and foreign participation in economic activity, 
several new laws and regulations have been instituted. However, 
this report concludes that the pace of economic growth is still
not rapid enough to compensate for the economic stagnation of the
preceding quarter century, and its sustainability is uncertain.
The current reform efforts are, therefore, unlikely to push the
Myanma economy to a higher growth path on which the bulk of the
population would enjoy substantially better living standards.

51.    For a sustained growth response to emerge, this report
concludes that economic reforms need to be deepened and extended
in several policy areas.  The most urgent need is to restore
macroeconomic stability so as to establish the basis for
sustained growth.  In this context, the report's central
recommendation is for a nominal devaluation of the official
exchange rate.  Adjusting the exchange rate is essential to
tackling the unsustainably large macroeconomic imbalances with
regard to the fiscal deficit and the current account gap. These
distortions in macroeconomic policies, particularly the
overvalued exchange rate and the deep cuts in non-military public
expenditures, also have adverse distributional impacts. Unless
they are addressed, it will be impossible to reduce poverty and
achieve social development.  Substantial gains in economic
efficiency would also result if the ban on private-sector exports
of paddy and rice were eliminated, and the scope of government
paddy procurement were reduced.  Reforming these paddy policies
would help to reduce poverty and enhance equity because they
imply large income transfers from the rural poor to the urban
elites (including the military). Regarding private-sector
participation, SEs [State Enterprises] still enjoy significant
advantages in their access to key inputs and, thus, are also
favored by foreign investors in establishing joint ventures.
Hence, steps to establish a "level playing field" between SEs and
domestic private businesses should be a priority. Finally, if the
role of the SE sector in the economy and its adverse fiscal
impact are to be reduced, reforms would need to go further or be
reoriented in several areas, including price liberalization,
managerial and financial autonomy, and privatization.   

 ...............................................................

These paragraphs are taken from the 150-page report whose main
headings are:

1. POLICY REFORMS AND MACROECONOMIC ISSUES 

2. CHANGES IN THE INCENTIVE SYSTEM

3. STATE ENTERPRISE REFORM AND PRIVATE SECTION DEVELOPMENT

BIBLIOGRAPHY

ANNEXES

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

*********************************


                  ONCE THE RICE-BOWL OF ASIA 
        The military destruction of Burma's economy 
                                                        
                      by David Arnott

ABSTRACT

The Burmese military's linked objectives, expanded military
control of the country and large-scale international
investment to pay for it, are mutually incompatible. Following
their suppression of the 1988 Democracy Movement, the generals
decided to increase the size of the armed forces from 186,000
to 500,000 in order to have a permanent military presence in
most parts of the country. This involved up to US$2 billion of
arms imports, mainly from China, a large recruitment drive and
a reordering of the military command structure. Lacking
the necessary funds to pay for military expansion following
the failure of the previous regime's economic autarchy (and/or
seeking a credible source of income to launder the revenues
from Burma's illegal exports, mainly heroin), the junta opened
the country to international investment, but the increased
militarisation of the state and the military's continued
stranglehold on the main sectors of the economy impeded the
economic liberalisation and institutional reform needed by
investors. In the civil war, the enhanced capacity of the
re-armed and enlarged Burma Army allowed it to move from a
strategy of seasonal combat to one of occupation. 

However, lack of discipline and the low level of soldiers' pay
have led to the army living off the land, destroying the local
economy, carrying out massive violations of human rights,
further alienating the local population and creating refugee
flows to neighbouring countries. The combination of a sinking
economy, a large, badly-paid army and a tradition of
warlordism could lead to a break-up of the country into a
number of fiefdoms run by regional commanders and ethnic
chiefs. Such a scenario should be taken seriously by the
Tatmadaw, the neighbours and the international community. 

*************************

The full "Ricebowl" (about 50K) appeared, in English, on Burmanet last
year, and is accessible on the Web in two helpings via BURMANET GOPHER: 

gopher://gopher.igc.apc.org:2998/7REG-BURMA 

I fully recommend this invaluable research tool. You can find and download
earlier exploits of the DSIF, the Burma Action Directory (BAD) -- be sure
to get the latest version -- and the 49 slices of the ILO Commission of
Inquiry on Forced Labour in Burma in case you missed any of them. You can
even find the full excutive summary of the Bank report.

There's just one tricky thing, elucidated in BAD:

Since the gopher has a default of 40 topics,
you have to append to your query "-m 13" (or whatever maximum
number of topics you want, being careful to leave a gap
between your keyword and the hyphen).  (e.g."kachin -m 13"
gave 13 documents out of 769.  "kachin -m 130" gave 130).  It
also supports Boolean searches.  Thus, when I put in "kachin
-m 300 AND women", it gave me 300 (out of 352), and when I
narrowed it down to "kachin -m 300 AND women AND 1994", it
gave me 212 documents. 
 

I think the Freeburma Website has a magic gopher-hole as well

If anyone wants "Ricebowl" and can't get it any other way, send me your
email address and I'll send it.

***************************

At 08:43 19/09/98, you wrote:

> Dear Burmanet Editor,
>
>Please refer to the letter you wrote on 22 July 1998 , Wednesday..
reminding us
>not to post personal attacks on burmanet.
>
>Personal attacks posted by Okkar , well paid or looked after by SPDC junta ,
>just like Mya Mya Win and Win Naing , are really disgusting. Thay have no
shame
>at all. Their chidren have to be ashamed of having such kind of parents
with no
>moral value .
>We have no time to write rebuttal , specially at this point of time.
>
>I would appreciate if you could do something for us , regarding this kind of
>postings.
>
>Khin Saw Win
>
>strider@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>
>> Dear burmanet-l subscribers,
>>
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