Myanmar has damaged ASEAN

[tinkyi@xxxxxxx]

ANALYSIS-Cambodia worries reflect ASEAN unease
10:59 p.m. Dec 12, 1998 Eastern

By Robert Birsel
PHNOM PENH, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Concern about Cambodia's readiness to join
ASEAN is symptomatic of wider worry about the future of the regional
grouping and the costs of unifying 10 very different countries, political
analysts say.

Some southeast Asians argue that the region's 10 countries must be brought
together within the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as
quickly as possible to reap the diplomatic and economic benefits of
cooperation.

But there is concern, in particular among ASEAN's older, more developed
members, that letting in authoritarian countries such as Myanmar has damaged
the group's ties with the West and endangers efforts to promote transparency
and democracy.

``Myanmar has provided a valuable lesson, that you can't really change a
country. Even though ASEAN tries to constructively engage Myanmar, the
change has been too slow,'' said Kao Kim Hourn, director of the Cambodian
Institute for Cooperation and Peace think tank.

``Myanmar has damaged ASEAN but it's in ASEAN's ultimate interest to make
sure it's united -- all 10 countries,'' he said. ``That's very important if
ASEAN wants to play on the international diplomatic stage, be it engaging
China, Russia or India.''

If Cambodia is admitted to the grouping this week, it will bring the number
of countries in ASEAN to 10. Its admission was halted at the eleventh hour
last year after factional fighting broke out in Phnom Penh in July, in which
then junior co-premier Hun Sen ousted his senior coalition partner, Prince
Norodom Ranariddh.

But military-ruled Myanmar did join ASEAN last year despite objections from
some of the group's Western allies over its dismal human rights record and
political suppression. Laos also joined at the same time, bringing the
group's membership to nine.

The question of Cambodia's admission has overshadowed preparations for the
nine-member group's summit in Hanoi on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore say Prime Minister Hun Sen's new
coalition should prove it can maintain stability before being allowed to
join. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have pushed for Cambodia to be
admitted now.

The concern about Cambodia reflects unease that as ASEAN expands, the once
cozy club of like-minded governments is losing its focus, analysts say.

The more liberal ASEAN members fear the conservatives could put the breaks
on political and economic reform and tarnish ASEAN with their political and
rights problems.

``People like Thailand and the Philippines don't want to create a situation
in which they'll be continually outnumbered by the hardliners,'' said Steve
Heder of London University's School of Oriental and African Studies.

``If Burma, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam line up on certain issues, whether
it's human rights, democracy or international trade, then the old ASEAN
independence of action is severely compromised,'' he told Reuters.

``People like Surin, Sukhumbhand and senior foreign ministry officials in
the Philippines, they're good liberals who genuinely believe the way forward
for the whole of southeast Asia is further democracy and transparency,''
Heder said,
referring to Thai Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan and his deputy,
Sukhumbhand Paripatra.

``They don't want to be dragged down by the Khin Nyunts and the Hun Sens,''
he said, referring to Myanmar's powerful military intelligence chief Khin
Nyunt, a key member of the ruling State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC).

The region's economic crisis was not nudging Myanmar towards political
reform, the analysts said.

``If anything there's been negative progress,'' Heder said. ``Military
intelligence is increasingly taking over. This is not what ASEAN
envisaged.''

Cambodia, like Myanmar, will see no immediate, direct economic benefit from
ASEAN membership but it will confer international legitimacy on Hun Sen's
government.

Despite the costs, ASEAN has little choice but to try and manage its
members' political turmoil. The group says Cambodia's membership is only a
question of time.

``ASEAN should manage diversity,'' said Kao Kim Hourn. ``Myanmar has damaged
ASEAN but it has been able to deal with that. If it's a mature regional
organisation it can handle Cambodia.''

Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand formed ASEAN in
1967. Brunei joined in 1984. Communist Vietnam and Laos, ASEAN's Cold  War
adversaries, joined in 1995 and 1997 respectively. Myanmar was also admitted
last year.