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US,UN AND BURMA; A STRUGGLE BREAKIN



12-JAN-98; 12:00AM

US, UN and Burma: A struggle breaking into another year

It is traditional for many of us to complete a year by reflecting upon
its developments and achievements. As for the Burma democracy movement
in 1998, we cannot be entirely complacent about present situation and
ending the year  with a high note, except for our refugees in Thailand
receiving some measures of UN protection ( for this, we are very
grateful to the  Amnesty International for their Worldwide Campaign for
Refugee in 1997). On the one hand, we may not underestimate the overall
achievements of the democracy movement during the year. As for the
pro-democracy supporters outside of  Burma, we are quite successful in
getting the SPDC/SLORC isolated diplomatically ( thanks to the works of
the human rights and other solidarity groups) and financially ( credit
must be duly given to supporters of FreeBurma Campaign and Selective
Purchasing Groups). As we all know, our attempt to legitimise the NLD at
the UN is not quite successful, or rather, not moving forward as much
extent as we would like.

By the year end, the democratization in Burma  reaches from a
snail-paced developments to a complete stalling-point. The international
community's overall efforts on Burma in 1997 appears to have a
significant impact, but doesn't seems to carry on its momentum in 1998.
One biggest influencing factor appear to be the US domestic political
situation, in particular, the US Republican's partisan attacks on
Democrat President Clinton. Because of such attacks on US President, the
political authority of the whole US administration appears to have
weakened.

Despite such weakness, it needs to be noted-- and has been proven,
though-- that regardless of popular opinions or  personal political
attacks, the elected President of United States, who also is the
commander in chief, can still have the authority to make decision on
military matters. However, exercising political power is  not simply
about  the ability to settle any dispute by military means in the end.
Point is, if a politician or political entity was attacked in this way,
that will limit the entity's capacity to translate a political vision
into reality. Unfortunately, Burma democracy movement required that kind
of help--i.e. translating a political vision into reality-- from US
administration, which appeared we have not been receiving within last
year.

>From an activist's point of view, the political well-beings of
pro-democracy establishments, such as the Governments of Democratic
Countries, United Nations etc., are as equally important as our own
solidarity within the movement. We (the activists) are in no doubt
that we need helps from those politicians. As for the activists, however
much we 'deluded' ourselves of having the influence and however much we
having 'illusions' of grand visions and brightest plans, the politicians
who run the governments and United Nations, in the end, are the people
who have the authority to make the political decision. In this context,
we all are to be awared about things happening in international
political circle, especially in the United States and United Nations.
Equally important, as a movement, not to be drawned into the partisan
fights in the US (or anyother country in this matter); but a clear
illustration has to be made of what is unhelpful to our situations.

THE EFFECT OF US DOMESTIC POLITICS

One  impact of US domestic feud upon international politics has been on
the relation between UN and Iraq. As soon as the US President was under
attack on domestic front, the Government of Iraq began undermining the
UN Security Council resolutions and, especially, the mandate of UN
weapon inspection team. Last year's attack on US Embassies in east
African States by extremist terrorist groups can also be viewed as the
first sign of tests on the US strength; a direct consequences of US
domestic politics. Last month's US/UK bombing campaign against Iraq, in
this context, is to be considered as reasserting the UN authority &
western military powers. The December bombing campaign  is a measure of
sending the message that the US domestic politics will have no influence
on the US President's power to make military manoeuvers. Diplomacy, it
said, is a mean to avoid direct military confrontations. In the recent
case of Government of Iraq against US/UK and UN, the military action has
become a substitute for diplomacy because the other party--the United
States--is too pre-occupied in domestic politics and is having no time
for diplomacy.

Currently, a proceeding is underway to impeach US President, i.e. to
accuse him of a serious crime against the State. This measure has been
put forward, along a partisan line, by the Republican dominated
Congress. The President is not likely to lose his post by such measure,
the analysts predicted. Nevertheless, the President and its
administration will be reduced of their capicity in translating their
political vision into reality. This may as well  have been the ultimate
objective of Republicans. As a consequence, we are likely to see more
politically short-tempered Clinton administration in international
politics, as has been demonstrated in the case against Iraq. Though, the
US administration will be quite unable to make innovative moves in
international politics.

The other consequence is the traditional press' pre-occupation with US
domestic politics, which the international media attention will be
diverted away from the countries like Burma. Although the Burma
democracy movement has not been driven by the media, we do need the help
from international media now and then to keep the general public
informed of the situation in Burma.

Another problem on UN is the $1.2 billion debt to be given by United
States, which may limit the UN's capacity to do work. The US Congress
promised to deliver the money after completing the restructuring of UN.
However, the Congress apparently do not honour that promise even after
UN Secretary-General had successfully made the restructuring of the UN,
it is reported.

In sum, I am less optimistic for the year 1999 about our ability to get
things done for the democracy movement in Burma. Although, there is some
possibility of  the US administration, and all other international
political actors including the media, adjusting to the existence of the
US domestic feud. In this case, we might have a slightly better chance
of getting things done during the year.

With best regards, U Ne Oo.

--
HTTP://www.physics.adelaide.edu.au/~uneoo
EMAILS: drunoo@xxxxxxxxxxxx, uneoo@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
POSTMAIL: Dr U Ne Oo, 18 Shannon Place, Adelaide SA 5000, AUSTRALIA
[http://freeburma.org/[http://www.angelfire.com/al/homepageas/index.htm]

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