select1 /the Pattern of Shut Downs. (r)

[darnott@xxxxxxxxxxx]

Subject: Re: select1 /the Pattern of Shut Downs......

To Chao-Tsang Yawnghwe

Dear Eugen,

To understand the strategy of the current SPDC attempt to damage the NLD,
split the Party from the non-Burman ethnic groups, and ultimately drive it
underground, it is very helpful to make analyses such as yours. However, as
you know better than most, the "closure" (the NLD says they are not legally
closed) of the NLD branches is only one of the tactics being used, though
it may be the most important for the day-to-day functioning of the Party.
In addition, apart from the long-standing harassment of Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi and her close colleagues, some of whom are serving long terms in
prison, there is the holding of NLD hostages -- both MPs-elect and party
officers, the forced and falsified "resignations" of NLD members and the
statements various ethnic groups have been required to make criticising the
NLD. 

I have squished the previous figures together, done a bit of arithmetic,
and offer the results here. There are a number of other considerations such
as population density, strategic and economic factors, the possibility of
wiping out all the NLD branches in a given area (e.g. Arakan, which
returned only 8 NLD MPs in 1990. Does anyone know if there are any NLD
branches left in Arakan? I imagine that once a branch is "closed", the SPDC
will not be excessively cooperative in helping it to open again) which may
also enter into SPDC strategy in its offensive against the NLD. There is
also the major element of opportunity.

Some of the figures suggest further questions, e.g. why are there so many
guesthoused officers from Mon State? Why the large number of "resignations"
in Irrawaddy and Pegu? Why the relatively light treatment of Mandalay
compared with Rangoon, etc.


Best wishes,

David Arnott (Burma Peace Foundation, Geneva)

*******************

GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF THE VARIOUS TACTICS BEING USED TO DAMAGE THE NLD


RANGOON DIVISION  	 			
Guesthoused NLD MPs 29  (number elected in 1990 59)
Guesthoused NLD officials 345
NLD branches closed 2
Members and officials "resigned" 282

SAGAING DIVISION	 			
Guesthoused NLD MPs 28   (number elected in 1990 53)
Guesthoused NLD officials 10
NLD branches closed 3
Members and officials "resigned" 563

PEGU DIVISION 					
Guesthoused NLD MPs 25  (number elected in 1990 48)
Guesthoused NLD officials 47
NLD branches closed 4
Members and officials "resigned" 1715

MAGWE DIVISION 				
Guesthoused NLD MPs 23   (number elected in 1990 39)
Guesthoused NLD officials 13
NLD branches closed 0
Members and officials "resigned" 218

IRRAWADDY DIVISION 				
Guesthoused NLD MPs 23   (number elected in 1990 49 )
Guesthoused NLD officials 43
NLD branches closed 2
Members and officials "resigned" 3349

MANDALAY DIVISION 				
Guesthoused NLD MPs 22   (number elected in 1990 55)
Guesthoused NLD officials 56
NLD branches closed 1
Members and officials "resigned" 325

TENASSERIM DIVISION 			
Guesthoused NLD MPs 6   (number elected in 1990 13)
Guesthoused NLD officials 2
NLD branches closed 5
Members and officials "resigned" 48

SHAN STATE 					
Guesthoused NLD MPs 18   (number elected in 1990 22)
Guesthoused NLD officials 7
NLD branches closed 8
Members and officials "resigned" 267

MON STATE 					
Guesthoused NLD MPs 11   (number elected in 1990 17)
Guesthoused NLD officials 122
NLD branches closed 4
Members and officials "resigned" 101

ARAKAN STATE 			 	 	
Guesthoused NLD MPs 3   (number elected in 1990 8)
Guesthoused NLD officials 10
NLD branches closed 10
Members and officials "resigned" 111

KAREN STATE 			 	 	
Guesthoused NLD MPs 4   (number elected in 1990 10)
Guesthoused NLD officials 3
NLD branches closed 1
Members and officials "resigned" 4

KACHIN STATE 						
Guesthoused NLD MPs 1   (number elected in 1990 14)
Guesthoused NLD officials 8
NLD branches closed 2
Members and officials "resigned" 94

CHIN STATE			 	 	
Guesthoused NLD MPs 0  (number elected in 1990 3)
Guesthoused NLD officials 0
NLD branches closed 2
Members and officials "resigned" 31

KARENNI STATE				 	
Guesthoused NLD MPs 0  (number elected in 1990 4)
Guesthoused NLD officials 0
NLD branches closed 0
Members and officials "resigned" 0

**************************


ANTI-NLD STATEMENTS BY VARIOUS NON-BURMAN ETHNIC GROUPS

These statements were orchestrated in response to the support the NLD's
Committee of 10 (CRPP)  was receiving from a number of ethnic organisations
and alliances.


If anyone has an afternoon or so to spare, cuddle up with the "Unity is No.
1" website

http://www.twics.com/~yangon/unity.htm

where you will find a number of statements by ceasefire groups: 

Subject: Attitude of the ........ in connection with the NLD (National
League for Democracy)'s call for convening of the Hluttaw 

The ones I looked at seemed to be from the same template. There may be some
variations, but I didn't have the patience to sit through the painfully
slow-loading pictures of jolly ethnic dancers, heroic Tatmadawmen and the
Senior General's words of wisdom in "Leaders" magazine, to get to all the
texts. 

************************

At 21:12 13/01/99 -0800, Chao-Tzang Yawnghwe wrote:
>No.2/99
>BURMA FILE: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SHUT DOWN OF NLD OFFICES BY THE JUNTA  
>
>It is curious that of the total NLD offices shut down by the Rangoon 
>junta -- a total of 43 offices, in the period between 16 October to 31 
>December 1998 -- more than one-half (26) of these are in the ethnic 
>nationalities States. 
>   In a break down by States, Rakhine is the most affected with 10 shut 
>downs. Next is the Shan State, with 8 shut downs (mostly in the Eastern 
>part, bordering China, Laos, and Thailand). The number of NLD offices 
>shut down in the Mon, Chin, and Kachin State are, respectively, 3, 2, and 
>2.  
>   The inference that can be drawn from the pattern of NLD office 
>closures is that the junta is seriously concerned about the possibility 
>of NLD establishing firm linkage with the ethnic nationalities, 
>particularly the Rakhine. This falls in line with the repeated warnings 
>given leaders of the ceasefire armies in the Kachin, Shan, and Mon State 
>by the MI (military intelligence) not to have any contacts with Daw Aung 
>San Suukyi and the NLD. The Shan National League for Democracy (SNLD), 
>which won 25 seats in the 1990 elections, has also be similarly warned.  
>   A further inference that can be drawn is that the junta's game plan to 
>promote unity and maintain national solidarity -- a goal it trumpets 
>loudly and often -- is to build walls between the Burman ethnic group and 
>other ethnic nations.   
>   The implication is that the military junta prefers division, even 
>conflict, to communication, understanding, and unity between and among 
>the ethnic nations of Burma. 
>
>Below, the list of NLD offices that have been forcibly shut down:
>[ Obtained from David Arnott <darnott@xxxxxxxxxxx> ]
>
>LIST OF NLD BRANCH OFFICES REPORTED CLOSED
>(October-December 1998)
>
>16 October  1998    Ponnagyun Township, RAKHINE State
>24 October  1998    Seikkyi Kanaungto Township, Yangon Division
>27 October  1998    Thanbyuzayat Township, Mon State
>27 October  1998    Sittwe Township, RAKHINE State
>28 October  1998.   Mrauk-U Township, RAKHINE State
> 9 November 1998    Kya-in Seikkyi, KAREN State
> 9 November 1998    Bilin Township, SOUTHERN MON State
>11 November 1998    Kyauktaw Township RAKHINE State
>11 November 1998    Minbya Township, RAKHINE State
>14 November 1998    Ann Township, RAKHINE State
>15 November 1998    Kyaukphyu Township, RAKHINE State
>15 November 1998    Myaybon Township, RAKHINE State
>16 November 1998    Mongkhat Township, EASTERN SHAN STATE
>17 November 1998    Pyapon Township, Irrawaddy Division
>18 November 1998    Thanatpin Township, Pegu Division
>18 November.1998    Paletwa Township, CHIN State
>18 November 1998    Mong Yang Township, EASTERN SHAN STATE State
>19 November 1998    Shwekyin Township, Pegu Division
>20 November 1998    Pauktaw Township, RAKHINE State
>22 November.1998    Loilem Township, SOUTHERN SHAN State
>21 November 1998    Taunggyi Township, SHAN State
>21 November 1998    Thabeikkyin Township, Mandalay Division
>22 November 1998    Kyaikto Township, MON State
>22 November 1998    Buthidaung Township, RAKHINE State
>25 November 1998    Htantabin Township, Pegu Division
>25 November 1998    Dala Township, Yangon Division
>27 November 1998    Kyunhla Township, Sagaing Division
>29 November 1998    Hpakant Township, KACHIN State
>30 November 1998.   Mong Yawng Township, EASTERN SHAN State
> 1 December 1998    Matupi Township, CHIN State
> 3 December 1998.   Mong Hpyak (Mongphyat) Township, EASTERN SHAN State,
> 5 December 1998    Mong Hsat Township, EASTERN SHAN State
> 8 December 1998.   Myaungmya Township Irrawaddy Division,
>10 December 1998    Mogaung Township, KACHIN State
>14 December 1998    Tachilek Township, EASTERN SHAN State
>21 December 1998    Shwegyin Township, Pegu Division
>25 December 1998    Thayetchaung Township, Tenasserim  Division
>27 December 1998    Tavoy Township, Tenasserim Division
>27 December 1998    Kanbalu Township, Sagaing Division,
>28 December.1998    Kyunzu Township, Tenasserim Division
>28 December 1998.   Launglon Township, Tenasserim Division
>28 December 1998    Yebyu Township, Tenasserim Division
>31 December 1998.   Khamti Township, Sagaing Division
>
>
>ANALYTICA BIRMANIE 99
>January 13, 1999. 
>-----------------------------------------
>
>
>