The BurmaNet News: January 29, 1999

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------------------------ BurmaNet ------------------------
"Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"
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The BurmaNet News: January 29, 1999
Issue #1196

Noted in Passing: " If you are in Burma, we are not going to do business
with you, because we believe that foreign investment is one of the supports
of the military government of Burma " - Representative Byron Rushing (see
NBC: Massachusetts Foreign Policy)


HEADLINES:
==========
AWSJ: MYANMAR MILITARY WORRIES THE NEIGHBOURS
BKK POST: RANGOON TO LAUNCH LOCAL WEB ACCESS
XINHUA: NUCLEAR INSTRUMENT PROJECT IN MYANMAR 
DAILY YOMIURI: ELECTIONS 'POSSIBLE IN NEAR FUTURE' 
THE STRAITS TIMES: YANGON BOGS DOWN EU-ASEAN TIES 
NBC: MASSACHUSETTS FOREIGN POLICY 
REUTERS: PRIVATISE MORE STATE CONCERNS 
THE NATION: TRAWLERS TO STAY OUT OF BURMA WATERS 
BKK POST: TWO WA ARMY FIGHTERS CAPTURED IN CLASH
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ASIAN WALL STREET JOURNAL: MYANMAR MILITARY WORRIES THE NEIGHBOURS
24 January, 1999 by Barry Wain

YANGON - When Hla Min completed secondary school in the early 1970s, he
applied for officer training at the Defense Services Academy at Maymyo. He
and more than 10,000 others.

They were competing for just 100 places, the annual intake by the
prestigious school in central Myanmar. Successful applicants, after four
years of study, would graduate as second lieutenants.

Most of them could then expect years of postings in remote areas, where
Yangon had been battling ethnic- and ideologically--based insurgents for
decades. Casualties were high, they knew, and pay was low.

Against at least one group, the Burmese Communist Party, government forces
were heavily outgunned, unable to match the modem, automatic rifles in the
hands of fa-natical followers of Mao Tse-tung. But young men still
volunteered, even as pri-vates, to hold the line.

"This military has never surrendered in any battle since World War II,"
says Hla Min, who survived and is a government spokesman today, with the
rank of lieutenant-colonel. "So the pride is there."

Militaries everywhere have their myths and traditions, and Myanmar's, known
as the tatmadaw, is no exception. The tatmadaw has been at the center of
things since Burma, as it was previously known, regained its independence
from Britain in 1948.


It was the military that guided the country down the disastrous Burmese
Way to Socialism, after Gen. Ne Win staged a coup in 1962. It was the
military that stepped in and crushed the democracy movement in 1988 and
initiated market-oriented reforms.

Apart from running the nation _ the military is almost indistinguishable
from the government _ the tatmadaw has branched into commerce. It is the
only effective national organization, determined not to allow rivals to
emerge.

Most defense establishments may be trimming their ambitions in line with
post--Cold War conditions, but the tatmadaw is on the rise. Over the past
decade, it has doubled in size, as it strengthened its control over society.

"It is, or with Vietnamese demobilization soon will be, the largest
standing army In Southeast Asia," says David I. Stein-berg, a Myanmar
specialist at Georgetown University.

Exactly how big is open to debate. Reflecting mainstream Western
assessments, Mr. Steinberg estimates around 400,000, up from about 180,000
In 1988.

"But they never mention the people who retired and left the armed forces
for various reasons," says LL-Col. Hla Min. "They only put in the ones that
are added, but not those that are Subtracted." His figure: "Not over
350,000," and unlikely to climb further.

He dismisses reports, originally sourced by Western researchers to Yangon
itself, that the tatmadaw intends to keep growing until it reaches at least
500,000 by next year. That suggests the government has sealed back earlier
plans.

"Even if we want to, we cannot afford that much," says LL-Col. Hla Min.

Without citing any numbers, Brig.-Gen. David Abel, a senior minister,
argues that the growth hasn't been drastic, but rather that it represents a
"very gradual modemization." Myanmar has to fill "vacuums," including
lengthy borders with five coun-tries and "half a million square kilometers"
of Exclusive Economic Zone offshore, he says. The build-up is to give the
country a modest defensive capacity "just in case," he adds, and it amounts
to "peanuts" com-pared with what some other Asian countries possess.

"It is always difficult to arrive at an ac-curate order of battle for
Myanmar," says Andrew Selth, a visiting fellow at the Strategic and Defense
Studies Center at the Australian National University. "But, by any
estimate, it was a remarkable expan-sion in a very short time."

Strengthening the tatmadaw was a high priority of the State Law and Order
Restoration Council, after it seized power in September 1988. Twenty-six
years of social-ism had left the armed forces, as well as the rest of the
country, in poor shape.

Although the army, core of the tatmadaw, was battle-hardened, it was
essentially a lightly equipped infantry force organized and deployed for
internal security operations. Its heavier equipment and weapons were
obsolete, its logistics and communications systems extremely weak.

Critically, the army wasn't able to decisively defeat any of the major
guerrilla movements, not least because it lacked the required 10:1 ratio in
troop superiority. It also was hampered by shortages of transport, fuel and
ammunition.


The increase in manpower has been accompanied by a massive arms
procurement program, designed to upgrade the army's operational capability,
including external defense. According to Mr. Selth, the military has gone a
considerable way toward meeting its goal, though rapid expansion has also
produced strains.

"Not only is the Myanmar Army now much larger, but it is more mobile and
has greatly improved armor, artillery and air defense equipment
inventories," he says. But "many units seem to be well under strength" and
training has "suffered badly," while qualified and seasoned officers and
non-commissioned officers are in short supply.

As officials tell it, Slorc's need in 1988 to respond to the chaos of
civilian demonstrations, which paralysed the government and left 60% of
factories around Yangon looted and destroyed, added urgency to the
expansion. Soldiers were sent in to staff manufacturing plants, operate the
TV channel and phone system, and run the railways, while the air force kept
the domestic air-line going.

"That left us with very few troops to do the fighting," says Lt-Col. Hla
Min. "We had to recruit troops quickly to repel all these insurgent groups."

Even after the government negotiated ceasefire agreements with 17 of the 18
main rebel outfits, between 1989 and 1995, the extra men were needed to
fill another of Brig.-Gen. Abel's "vacuums." Troops are helping to build
roads, railroads and bridges on former battlefields, promised as part of
the settlements.

Besides, the private armies have been allowed to retain their weapons,
pending the adoption of a new constitution and power-sharing arrangements
between the center and periphery. They will bear watching, since some are
unhappy about slow progress.

Myanmar sees no "immediate outside threat" to itself. And, in turn, "We
have no aggressive intention," says Brig.-Gen. Abel. "We want to live in
peace with all our neighbors, with the whole region and the world."

Other Asian nations don't worry much that Myanmar covets their territory or
re-sources. They are more concerned that the tatmadaw's added muscle will
be exercised against domestic political opponents, causing refugee and
other problems to spill across frontiers, as they have in the past.

When LL-Col. Hla Min says the military is a proud institution that doesn't
surrender, he's got democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi in his sights.
Denouncing what he describes as her strong-arm and pressure tactics, he
says: "Myamnar will never give in to this kind of situation."

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BANGKOK POST: RANGOON TO LAUNCH LOCAL WEB ACCESS
28 January, 1999 

JUNTA.COM NOT LIKELY TO OPEN DISSENT DOOR
Rangoon, AFP

Burma is poised to take another small step into the information age with
the launch of a public Inter-net access service, a government official said.

"The Myanmar communications ministry, which is testing equipment to access
global websites, will soon become an internet service provider," the
official Mirror newspaper quoted Director General Maung Maung Tin as saying.


Businesses would be given priority when the new service is up and running,
officials said.

Burma currently allows limited access to electronic mail but the service is
largely confined to business people and foreign embassies.

Opponents of the military government however are likely to see any hopes of
spreading their message outside the country dashed, because as sole service
provider, the state will control access to the Web.

Aspiring Internet surfers will also have to confront a host of logistical
headaches before cruising cyber-space.

Many citizens face daily power cuts as the badly battered economy suffers
from foreign sanctions imposed to punish alleged human rights abuses and an
investment drought brought on by the Asian crisis.

Telephone services are notoriously unreliable and personal computers are
few and far between, even though efforts are underway in the country to
promote computer literacy, Rangoon residents say.

Computers are regarded as an out of reach luxury in most homes, where even
access to a telephone is a rarity. Maung Maung said Burma had the lowest
density of telephone services in Asia apart from Bangladesh.

Although Burma is regarded as lagging behind in computer development, its
military rulers have not been slow to realise the political potential of
the Internet.

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XINHUA: RCA COUNTRIES TO FORMULATE NUCLEAR INSTRUMENT PROJECT IN MYANMAR
27 January, 1999  

YANGON (Jan. 27) XINHUA - Representatives of some member countries of the
Regional Cooperative Agreement (RCA) for Nuclear Science and Technology are
meeting here to formulate a project to promote the capabilities for repair
and maintenance of nuclear instruments.

The five-day meeting, jointly sponsored by the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) and the Department of Atomic Energy of the Myanmar Ministry
of Science and Technology, began on Monday.

Attending the meeting are representatives of RCA member countries --
Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.

The project was proposed by the IAEA for cooperation specifically designed
to meet the needs of the RCA member countries.

At the meeting, Myanmar Deputy Minister for Science and Technology Thura
Aung Ko admitted that his country has had setbacks in promoting nuclear
science although it started quite early in the 1950s.

Myanmar made fresh efforts for the development and application by
establishing the Ministry of Science and Technology in 1996, and setting up
the Department of Atomic Energy as a new directorate in 1997, getting more
and more involved in international cooperation.

Despite not achieving so much progress in nuclear science and technology,
Myanmar has been able to introduce nuclear application in important areas,
assisted by the IAEA, he pointed out.

He cited nuclear radiation application introduced in the country for
promoting agriculture, for an ongoing program for new varieties of crops
particularly peas, beans and paddy, using the method of radiation induced
mutations, and fordisease diagnosis in animals to obtain the best feeding
strategies.


At the meeting, representatives of IAEA also recounted experience of the
projects carried out in Latin America.

Myanmar became an RCA member in 1994 and hosted the 19th RCA Working Group
Meeting for the first time in March 1997, attended by delegates from 17 RCA
member states.

****************************************************************

DAILY YOMIURI: FREE MYANMAR ELECTION 'POSSIBLE IN NEAR FUTURE'
28 January, 1999 by Shigefumi Takasuka

Lt. Col. Hla Min of the Myanmar regime told reporters at a press conference
held at the Myanmar Embassy in Tokyo Wednesday that a free election can be
held in the country "between two to three years," once it has finished
deliberations on the sixth chapter of its draft constitution.

The regime, called the State Peace and Development Council, has been
refusing to cede power to the National League for Democracy, the major
opposition party led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, which
won a landslide victory in 1988.

Instead, it convened a national convention in 1993 to review the draft of a
new 11-chapter constitution, but the body has not sat for more than three
years and only 60 percent of the draft has been discussed.

The regime insists that the deliberations are continuing at working levels.

The NLD, which is not participating in the current drafting process,
initially participated in the convention but withdrew in November 1995,
complaining of its undemocratic nature, and was formally ejected by the
junta in December of that year.

Hla Min defended the delay, stressing that the sixth chapter, which deals
with "power sharing" between central government and minority regions, is
crucial to the future of the country made up of 135 ethnic groups.

Although the draft constitution is widely considered to be a carbon copy of
the Indonesian constitution that existed under the regime of former
Indonesian President Suharto, Hla Min denied this, saying that Myanmar had
studied the constitutions of over 100 countries.

"Most of our ideas came from the American and Western constitutions," he
stressed.

However, Hla Min reconfirmed that the junta is determined to draft a
constitution, like Indonesia's, that will ensure a role for the military
forces in the country's future political structure.

Hla Min and Brig. Gen. Kyaw Win, deputy chief of the Office of Strategic
Studies at the Defense Ministry, started a 10-day visit on Jan. 20 at the
invitation of the Foreign Ministry.

A ministry source explained that the ranking intelligence officers were
invited to exchange opinions with leading pro- and antiregime figures in
political and journalistic circles.

This exposure may indirectly contribute to the democratization of the
Myanmar government, the source added.

****************************************************************

THE STRAITS TIMES: YANGON BOGS DOWN EU-ASEAN TIES
28 January, 1999 by Shada Islam

THE last-minute cancellation of the meeting between European Union and
Asean senior officials scheduled for Monday in Bangkok illustrates the
growing gap in trust and confidence between the two regions.


Over the years, the two have agreed to disagree over their approach to
human rights. But quarrels over policy towards Myanmar have brought the
EU-Asean relationship to a virtual standstill.

Both sides now need to ask themselves if the 30-year-old EU-Asean
relationship -- and the benefits it can bring to both regions in areas like
trade, investment and industry -- should be sacrificed because of
disagreement on how to deal with Yangon.

Bickering over Myanmar's participation in EU-Asean meetings is nothing new.
Over the last 16 months, however, EU and Asean diplomats appeared to have
reached a cautious truce.

There was agreement that Myanmar would have a "passive presence" at the
talks in Bangkok. Yangon would not use its flag. It would also not be
allowed to speak. Then, eleventh-hour difficulties arose over Myanmar's
name plate.

Last Wednesday, the EU vetoed its participation in the Bangkok meeting,
arguing that Thailand had not made provisions for a special name plate for
Myanmar.

The EU was adamant that the plaque must state clearly that Myanmar was a
new Asean member and not part of the EU-Asean cooperation accord. But Thai
officials had failed to understand just how important the issue was for
Europe.

On Thursday, Asean countries came back with fresh proposals which met
European demands for an "invisible" Myanmar presence at the talks.

In essence, Asean agreed that the name plate for Myanmar would make itclear
that the country is a "non-party" to the EU-Asean trade and cooperation
agreement.

Asean, however, refused EU demands that the final deal should be put down
on paper. After last-minute crisis talks, the meeting was cancelled.

If skilful diplomats could not save the day, is there any point in
continuing the EU-Asean relationship?

Certainly, differences over how to deal with Myanmar are so fundamental
that they will come back to haunt future encounters between the two groups.

If they are to build a new partnership, bickering over Yangon will have to
cease. Instead, the EU and Asean will have to focus on areas where both
want to reinforce relations.

In recent months, EU governments have been heartened by Asean's more
assertive stance towards the Yangon military regime. They now want Asean to
go one step further and condemn Myanmar.

While some Asean members may harbour their own doubts about Myanmar, Asean
as a whole is adamant that the country cannot be kept out of EU-Asean
meetings and treated like a second-class member. This means more trouble
ahead.

Britain, Denmark and the Netherlands -- countries which favour the toughest
approach towards Myanmar's military junta -- insist that the compromise
designed in advance of the Bangkok meeting does not set a precedent for
further EU-Asean encounters.

In other words, Meander's presence at the EU-Asean foreign ministers
meeting in Berlin is not guaranteed.

There is a legal reason for this. Under the list of EU sanctions adopted
last December, European governments cannot give visas to Myanmar government
representatives and their families.

Even if host Germany could waive this for diplomatic reasons, many other EU
governments do not want the Myanmar foreign minister to attend as his
presence at a high-level encounter in Europe could lead to criticism by
European human rights lobbies.


The conundrum highlights the need for both sides to take an honest look at
their relationship. If the EU-Asean cooperation is worth preserving, then
both groups have to agree to put differences over Myanmar behind them.

They have much to gain by this. Europeans are anxious to show Asean that
they are not mere fair-weather friends, that they are still interested in
Asean and its future.

Asean, for its part, is looking for open European markets and more
investments from Europe. Globally, both regions have an interest in
promoting trade liberalisation and fighting protection.

Over the next few months, the two will have to decide if these economic
arguments are compelling enough to prompt a shift in gear. If not, EU-Asean
relations will remain mired in acrimony.

[The writer, a Brussels-based journalist, contributed this article to the
Business Times.]

****************************************************************

NBC: MASSACHUSETTS FOREIGN POLICY
27 January, 1999 by Pete Williams, NBC News Correspondent

Local officials are taking diplomacy into their own hands

WASHINGTON, Jan. 27 Frustrated by perceived lethargy at the State
Department and seeking to strike a tone with their constituents, more and
more local governments are making their own foreign policy moves. At the
same time, these local efforts to boycott goods from countries run by
military regimes or to support freedom in communist lands have raised
constitutional issues about the right of local officials to make decisions
that conflict with national foreign policy.

WHATS THE BEST way to get a military dictatorship like Myanmar, the former
Burma, to improve its human rights record?

The State Departments most recent report said the military government in
Myanmar severely represses basic rights by jailing political opponents and
forcing citizens into labor. The U.S. governments approach has been to
criticize Myanmar's regime, but a full-blown boycott of business ties has
been ruled out.

Some activists in Massachusetts thought that was wrong. So they began to
lobby state lawmakers. Two years ago, a member of the Legislature persuaded
his colleagues to pass a law forbidding the state to buy from any company
that also does business in Myanmar:

If you are in Burma, we are not going to do business with you, because we
believe that foreign investment is one of the supports of the military
government of Burma, said Rep. Byron Rushing.

WHO SPEAKS FOR THE U.S.?

That rubbed some American corporations the wrong way. A coalition of
companies challenged the law in court and late last year, a federal judge
in Boston declared the states boycott to be unconstitutional.

The ruling said that because the law was passed solely to sanction Myanmar
for human rights violations, it infringes on the power to regulate foreign
affairs. Under the Constitution, the federal government has exclusive
authority over foreign policy, according to the ruling.

The business groups also argued that the law would make no difference in
Myanmar. And, they said, when added to federal restrictions on doing
business with a growing list of countries, trade limits imposed by states
are hurting American companies in world markets.


The combination of the federal level unilateral sanctions and at the state
and local level adds up to a very large number of sanctions that have
finally gotten our partnerships or customers, said Frank Kittredge of the
National Foreign Trade Council, an industry group. Now, Massachusetts is
appealing the court decision in a case thats attracting a nationwide
following.

WIDE IMPLICATIONS

At least 23 U.S. cities, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New
York, along with two counties have laws like the one in Massachusetts,
aimed mostly at companies that do business in Myanmar and a few other
countries.

Advocates of these laws have argued that similar measures helped pressure
the government of South Africa to make democratic reforms during the
apartheid era.

They also point to a more recent example. When U.S. cities threatened to
limit contacts with companies doing business in Switzerland in 1997, they
pushed the Swiss government to disclose new information about gold that
wound up in Swiss banks after the Nazis  seized it from Jewish victims of
the Holocaust.

Legal scholars who support Massachusetts have said states have a right to
boycott companies they don't like, just as any shopper does.

Its leadership by example, said Professor Robert Stumberg of Georgetown
University Law School. Its putting your money where your mouth is. And it s
a kind of dealing in a global economy that avoids the heavy-handed
regulation and instead uses market power.

But are these local trade laws constitutional? A federal appeals court
hears oral arguments on that question in the spring. Its a case likely
headed for the Supreme Court.

****************************************************************

REUTERS: MYANMAR SAYS TO PRIVATISE MORE STATE CONCERNS
28 January, 1999 

YANGON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Myanmar's military government plans to open up
more state-run enterprises to the private sector, the Myanma News Agency
said on Wednesday.

Senior General Than Shwe, the head of the ruling State Peace and
Development Council, told entrepreneurs in the southern Ayeyawaddy delta
region on Tuesday they would have to take the lead and responsibility for
the economy in future.

"The government will only be giving guidance, control, protection and
assistance," the official news agency quoted him as saying.

Than Shwe said the government planned to transfer state-owned concerns such
as textile and sugar mills to the private sector.

He also said it would offer 30-year leases to entrepreneurs wanting to set
up farms of 5,000 acres (2,000 hectares) and larger.

A government official said foreign investors could invest in such projects
through wholly owned or joint ventures by applying to the state investment
commission.

On Monday, the state news agency quoted Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt,
number three in the government and chairman of the privatisation agency, as
saying factories and other enterprises that could not be run effectively by
the state would be transferred to private entrepreneurs.

Myanmar moved away from rigid state control of its economy in 1988 when the
military seized direct control by crushing a nationwide uprising for
democracy.


Many economic sectors have since been opened to private investment, but
agriculture was only recently opened up.

Farming in Myanmar has suffered for decades from a chronic shortage of
investment and lack of incentives. The country used to be one of the
world's major rice exporters but shipments have slowed to a trickle.

According to official statistics, more than 22.5 million acres (9.0 million
hectares) are under cultivation, while another 22 million acres (8.8
million hectares) are vacant -- either fallow, virgin or wet land.

Tin Htut Oo, a director of the Ministry of Agriculture, told Reuters
recently that about 30 private firms had been permitted to reclaim more
than 400,000 acres (160,000 hectares) of wetland in the Ayeyawaddy Divison
as well as in the Yangon, Bago and Magway regions.

The enterprises planned to grow rice and crops like sesame, cotton and
pulses, he said.

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THE NATION: THAI TRAWLERS WARNED TO STAY OUT OF BURMA WATERS
28 January, 1999 

SUPREME Commander Gen Mongkol Ampornpisit yesterday warned Thai fishing
trawlers to avoid violating Burmese waters, saying the armed forces cannot
protect them if they commit crimes in another's territory.

The warning came as Thailand and Burma are trying to resolve recurring
territorial violations and violent border conflicts through negotiations.

Naval vessels of the two countries have clashed twice -- once in December
and again this month -- and both have accused the other of violating their
territorial waters and of attacking their respective craft.

"I want to reiterate that the armed forces will protect national interests.
We will pursue every effort with prudence because the two countries still
have sea territorial disputes and other conflicts," Mongkol said.

"However, [I] have issued a warning urging fishermen not to violate Burmese
waters because the armed forces cannot protect them over crimes in
neighbouring countries," he added.

The supreme commander made the statement after chairing a special meeting
of the armed forces and the police to discuss how to resolve the latest
marine violence with Burma.

Mongkol said there was no conclusion as yet on how to proceed with the
problems. He said Thailand will stick to peaceful negotiations without
resorting to violence.

Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai had also instructed the police to warn Thai
fishing trawlers not to violate the seas of Thailand's neighbouring states,
Mongkol added.

After the second skirmish early this month, Burma has declared its waters
off-limits to foreign fishing boats and imposed a curfew.

Speaking after the joint special meeting, Lt Gen Banchorn Chawalsilpa,
assistant to the director of civil affairs, said the Navy had explained
that the clashes took place because there is no clear sea demarcation
between the two countries.

Moreover, Burma and Thailand have differing maps thus making it difficult
to identify where exactly the incidents took place, he added.

The two countries, said Banchorn, have four conflict-resolution mechanisms
in the joint commission, a national body chaired by the foreign ministers;
the joint border committee, headed by deputy foreign ministers; the
regional border committee, headed by regional army commanders; and the
technical border committee, chaired by Thai-Burmese ad-hoc local contacting
units.


Banchorn said Thailand will try to resolve the violent conflicts through
negotiations. The two latest clashes in disputed territory will be included
in the agenda of the meeting of the joint border committee in March in Phuket.

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BANGKOK POST: TWO WA ARMY FIGHTERS CAPTURED IN CLASH
28 January, 1999 

Mae Hong Son

A soldier of the Wa National Army fighting the Burmese government was
killed and two others captured in a clash with a security patrol on Tuesday.

Col Tomorn Kittisophon, commander of the Naresuan Force, said the fight
took place about three kilometres south of the border with Burma in Tambon
Na Pu Pom of Pang Ma Pha district between the 7th Infantry Regiment patrol
and Wa rebels who intruded on Thai soil.

One Wa soldier was killed. Two others were captured with two M16 rifles,
one carbine and 100 rounds of assorted ammunition
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