Rights advocates wary of initiative

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Subject: Rights advocates wary of initiative linking Myanmar aid to democracy 

Rights advocates wary of initiative linking Myanmar aid to democracy
UN and World Bank seek breakthrough

BY MICHAEL S. LELYVELD 
JOURNAL OF COMMERCE
January 29, 1999

Human rights activists and exiles are concerned about an international
initiative to advance democracy in Myanmar by offering the ruling junta the
prospect of multilateral aid.

The sensitive effort by the United Nations and the World Bank to find
political and economic solutions for the country formerly known as Burma is
said to have the backing of U.S., European and Japanese diplomats in Yangon
(Rangoon).

The opportunity comes with the Asian economic crisis, which has drained
Myanmar's reserves, raising hopes for a deal.

The junta says no

The junta, which set aside a democratic election in 1990, has so far
refused any offer that would have strings attached.

But attempts at breakthroughs on long-standing problems may be working
elsewhere in the region.

On Wednesday, the government of Indonesia surprised critics by announcing
it may grant independence to the former Portuguese colony of East Timor,
which it occupied in 1975.

While Indonesia has received aid under a $42 billion loan package organized
by the International Monetary Fund in 1997, it has been under continuous
pressure to democratize since the resignation of President Suharto last
year. Elections are now scheduled for June.

But the bid for similar progress in Myanmar is controversial. "We are very
cautious about it," said Fen Win, prime minister of the
government-in-exile, speaking in a phone interview from Washington. Mr. Win
is concerned that the military may be able to cede token freedoms to the
National League for Democracy party of Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi,
while using multilateral loans to stay in power.

"You can give a little bit of this and a little bit of that. They receive a
loan and they can hold on for a long time," he said.

U.S. and World Bank officials are also walking a fine line. Both are eager
to portray a recent Financial Times report on the initiative as either
premature or nothing new.

Last October, U.N. Assistant Secretary-General Alvaro de Soto undertook a
mission to Myanmar, delicately dangling the idea of economic assistance if
progress on human rights could be made.


The United Nations has since invited the World Bank to join it for a second
mission, possibly in March. But a bank official stressed that it was far
too soon to think about any possible terms of a deal for development loans.

"There is absolutely no expectation of a turning on of the tap of
development assistance as a result of that mission," said the official, who
asked not to be identified.

At the same time, the bank is operating in the highly touchy area of
dollars-for-democracy, where the studiously apolitical IMF is not allowed
to tread and the bank is also formally barred. The World Bank speaks only
in terms of "good governance," emphasizing the building of sound institutions.

A rare chance

In that sense, the Asian crisis presents a rare chance to argue the
benefits of joining the world community to countries that have resisted
change for years.

"The economic collapse has shown that you can't develop sustainably if you
focus on half the agenda," a bank official said. The Financial Times
estimated that Myanmar's size could justify more than $1 billion in loans.

A State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned
that aid for Myanmar is "very much in the realm of the hypothetical." The
administration also will not accept half-measures on democracy in exchange
for aid.

"We have no interest in having the wool pulled over our eyes, and we don't
think others do either," said the official.

Simon Billenness, a senior analyst at Franklin Research & Development Corp.
and a Myanmar activist, said the United States is also legally compelled to
oppose multilateral aid until it certifies that the country is cooperating
with the war on drugs.

Could take years

Certification would take years, although a U.S. official raised the
possibility of a national security exception if other conditions are
fulfilled.

But there is no sign that the military leaders of Myanmar will cooperate.
It is also uncertain that opposition leaders would accept any concessions
for aid, short of new elections or a handover to civilian power.