Article from India (Outlook)magazin

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Subject: Article from India (Outlook)magazine

"Route to suicide"

"The defence minister deals a blow to army efforts in the Northeast by
giving gun-runners free passage "

By Nitin A. Gokhale in Guwahati


OUTLOOK WEEKLY MAGAZINE COVER STORY
February 1, 1999
"Why is George Fernandes allowing gun-running that hits the army?"

"The defence ministry deals a blow to army efforts in the Northeast by
giving gun-runners free passage"
By Nitin A. Gokhale in Guwahati

Is the Ministry of Defence (MOD), so used to blame ing the unrest in
the Northeast on the "foreign hand", itself contributing to the strife?
Otherwise. why did the then defence secretary, Ajit Kumar, send an order
to the three service chiefs on July 27, 1998, specifically asking them
not to take action against illegal gun-runners operations in the
Andamans? That too when there are intelligence reports that arms dealers
have stepped up their supply to insurgent groups, including the ULFA and
the NSCN in the Northeast; and to Burmese rebels fighting the military
regime in Yangon. Besides destabilising an already volatile region, the
government circular totally frustrated the Indian security forces
fighting insurgency.
The controversial order is, in effect, asking the defence forces to
ignore whatever tip-off it receives about the movement of illegal arms
consignment, which includes sophisticated AK series rifles,
rocket-propelled grenades, night vision fitted rifles and hand grenades.
Kumar wrote the letter (reproduced above) apparently  under the
instructions of defence minister George Fernandes, whose sympathy for
the pro-democracy movement in Burma is no secret. The army is upset over
the fact that in his--and RAW'?zeal to support the Burmese rebels,
Fernandes is ignoring the dangers Indian army troops and civilians in
the Northeast are being exposed to.
The defence minister's stance has also made the Burmese government very
unhappy. A Burmese diplomat in the embassy in Delhi told Outlook: "on
the one hand, New Delhi official wants to increase military cooperation
with us, and on the other, your defence minister goes and supports the
anti-government forces in our country. How do you expect us to reconcile
with this?"
The Indian army is equally indignant. Says a senior Indian army
officer, dealing with counter insurgency operation in the Northeast: "It
is irritating and painful that we are losing men in the operations even
as the decision-makers seem to be indirectly abetting the insurgents".
The anger is understandable over the last five years, at least 200
security persons have lost their lives in the Northeast; last year, the
toll touched 60. Hundreds of civilians have been killed. Over 25,000
troops are deployed in counter-insurgency operation; the cost of
maintaining them is close to Rs 100 crore a year.
In this context, the MOD directive and other instructions are puzzling.
Consider this;
* The services were specially told not to take any action on a definite
tip  given by the Indian ambassador in Yangon regarding arms movement in

mid-1998. Evidently, the Indian diplomat was informed about a big arms
consignment coming from the Far East through the Andaman seas by the
Myanmarese military authorities.
? The Indian military inteligences, which also received a tip-off, was
told to hold its horse while at least three arms consignments went
through and were received by militant groups in the Northeast and Burma
between August 1998 and now.
? Many more consignments, on which there were no intelligence reports,
have passed through.
? Arms-running through the sea off the Andamans, which had been reduced
to a trickle in 1995-96, has increased manifold.
? According to an US intelligence report on the LTTE, the sea route from
the golden triangle to Myanmar is a key conduit for arms and narcotics.
Almost 80 percent of the heroin in the world market is channellised
through this route.
Most of the sophisticated weapons in the hands of various insurgent
groups can be traced to the Far East market (see map). The narco-arms
dealers obviously have a free run and easy access to this arms bazar.
For instance, most of the arms consignments.


THE TOLL: 8,000 AND RISING

ASSAM
*Over 2,700 killed in violence in 10 years
*Over 380 killed in Santhal-Bodo clashes
*Accord stalled over Bodo Autonomous Council
*Bodos demand separate state
*Santhal also want a separate state
*Militants step up extortion, abduction
*300% increase in arms-snatching in 1997?
  majority taken by Bodo militants
*ULFA has lost some ground I urban areas but maintain rural bases: is
under pressure but has spumed talks

NAGALAND
*Over 1,500 killed in 10 years
*Movement violent but fractious
*Demand for a sovereign Nagaland
*Ceasefire with NSCN/IM on september 1. 1997
         *NSCN/Khaplang maintains de-facto truce

TRIPURA
*Over 1,600 killed in the last 10 years
*NLFT/ATTF have bases in Bangladesh
*NLFT has gained groung and 27 police station areas declared
  distrubed
*Abductions by NLFT up by over 300%
*Tension between tribals and non-tribals
*Rise in tribal militancy

MANIPUR
*Over 3,000 persons killed in 10 years
*750 killed/ 4,000 homes burnt in Naga-Kuki
  clashes since June 1997
*Meteis fear balkanisation