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The BurmaNet News: March 10, 1999



------------------------ BurmaNet ------------------------
"Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"
----------------------------------------------------------

The BurmaNet News: March 10, 1999
Issue #1224

HEADLINES:
==========
THE ECONOMIST: OUTLOOK - NO SIGNS OF ECONOMIC REFORM 
AWSJ: LIVES OF THREE MEN MIRROR MYANMAR'S TROUBLED TIMES 
REUTERS: MYANMAR LEADER IN THAILAND FOR DRUG, BORDER TALKS 
THE BKK POST: PROTEST OVER THAN SHWE'S VISIT SWAMP NEWSPAPERS 
ANNOUNCEMENT: THE IRRAWADDY NEWSMAGAZINE 
ANNOUNCEMENT: US GOVERNMENT FUNDING REPORT AVAILABLE 
BURMANET GOPHER 
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THE ECONOMIST (INTELLIGENCE UNIT): OUTLOOK FOR 1999-2000 - NO SIGNS OF
ECONOMIC REFORM EMERGE 
15 November, 1998 

[BurmaNet Editor's Note: This article represents a significant recognition
of the NLD's economic platform.]

COUNTRY: MYANMAR (BURMA)

The junta has imposed crude restrictions on imports and on access to
foreign exchange in a bid to avert a balance-of-payments crisis, and has
ceased servicing even its external debt to the World Bank. It has shown
little indication of tackling the economic crisis by making the
wide-ranging economic reforms called for by the IMF and World Bank (and
also by the NLD). The junta has pledged to privatise most remaining
state-owned enterprises (SOEs), but progress has been very slow.

Myanmar will remain on the brink of a balance-of-payments crisis for much
of 1998-99. However, by 2000, some of the restrictions on imports may be
lifted, when the start of a recovery in Asia will result in a slight
pick-up in inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), and firmer prices
for Myanmar's commodity exports. This picture would be very different if
the junta were to lose power; the opening of a parliament and formation of
a democratic government would be quickly followed by a resumption of
multilateral and bilateral aid. In addition, the NLD has made it clear in
recent economic policy documents, that if it comes to power, it will
undertake a major structural adjustment programme, including
rationalisation of the exchange-rate regime. 

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ASIAN WALL STREET JOURNAL: LIVES OF THREE MEN MIRROR MYANMAR'S TROUBLED TIMES
8 March, 1999 by Barry Wain 
YANGON - Peter Thein went into business, Aye Kyaw went ahead and Win Pe
simply went away.

The three very different men gave a glimpse of life in Myanmar, formerly
known as Burma, when they were profiled in The Asian Wall Street Journal in
early 1993. Their experiences were shaped by the fluctuating fortunes of
their reclusive country.

What has happened to them since then also reflects conditions in Myanmar: a
continuing stalemate between the ruling State Peace and Development Council
and the democratic opposition; a difficult transition from socialism to a
market-oriented economy; and the impact of Asia's economic crisis.

Interviewed again six years later, each is troubled in his own way. They
haven't given up, though some of their earlier enthusiasm has cooled as
hopes for rapid economic and political change in the country have soured.


THE MARKETER

Mr. Thein, age 33, born and educated in Britain, where his diplomat father
was posted, wanted to introduce the concept of marketing and get foreign
companies to invest in Myanmar. He succeeded, capitalizing on a boom in
foreign business interest in the reclusive country, only to get sideswiped
by Asia's economic crisis.

In 1994, backed by partner-friends, he formed Myanmar Marketing Research &
Development Ltd., taking a 55% personal stake. The company has three
divisions -- directory publishing, market research, and advertising in the
form of a joint venture with Singapore-based Bates Indochina Ltd. Myanmar
Marketing grew rapidly, adding 150 staff and 40 part-timers and signing up
multinational clients.

Such a start, little short of explosive, was fueled by the release of
long-suppressed market forces, as the military authorities experimented
with economic reforms. Foreign investors joined local entrepreneurs to
create a miniboom in the capital, Yangon.

About 85% of Myanmar Marketing's revenue is generated by the
market-research arm, which maintains eight offices throughout the country.
It was the first company in the field and is by far the largest.

But government measures in 1997 to counter the impact of the regional
economic turmoil have undermined the business, Mr. Thein says. Yangon
banned imports of luxury items -- he prefers to call them "fast-moving
consumer products"  -- to conserve foreign exchange. Multinational
[companies] that were spending large amounts of money to establish their
name immediately pulled out, leaving Myanmar Marketing, once "quite
profitable," struggling for survival.

"I've lost 60% to 70% of my billings," Mr. Thein says. "Companies won't
come here and invest in the market if they can't sell their products."

Myanmar Marketing is still producing annual commercial directories for city
authorities in Yangon and Mandalay. The directories are funded by local
advertisers -- 2,400 in the latest Yangon edition, up from 600 at the
start, generating revenue of 35 million kyats ($100,000 at the free-market
exchange rate). But Mr. Thein says he just manages to break even after
paying the cities a set fee to use their name.

Still, he says, he takes heart that his idea revolutionized business in
information-starved Myanmar. "That directory started print advertising in a
big way," he says. "Little city guides followed."

Mr. Thein also organized the first live international telecast in Myanmar,
coverage of the national football team playing in the Southeast Asian Games
in Bangkok in 1996. And he introduced the country to James Bond through a
company owned by his wife. The company buys the rights to overseas TV
series and feature movies, gives them subtitles in the local language and
supplies them to two state-owned TV stations in return for air time for his
advertisers.

Although the government is allowing more foreign films to be shown these
days, screenings are sometimes canceled at the last minute. "Some senior
official will say the program isn't appropriate," says Mr. Thein. "They say
things like, it promotes colonialism, or foreign ideology, and maybe
violence as well."


Married in 1996 and with two-year-old twin boys, Mr. Thein hasn't lost the
distinctive West London accent that earned him the nickname "Cockney Peter"
among foreign friends. And he talks as fast as ever, though his tone is
edged with concern these days.

Mr. Thein says Western and Japanese sanctions -- imposed when the SPDC's
predecessor organization seized power in 1988 and refused to let Aung San
Suu Kyi's political party take over after easily winning an election in
1990 -- have hurt the economy. But at the same time, the boycott movement
has reinforced the unity of the military, he says. To top off an unhappy
picture, he says the government's efforts to help the economy seem to be
making business more difficult.

For seven years after his return from abroad in 1990, Mr. Thein always had
hope. "But it's very hard to remain optimistic anymore," he says. "We just
have to be patient and wait."

THE TOUR OPERATOR

Mr. Aye Kyaw, 49, had always wanted to get into tourism. He is fulfilling
his ambition, though he is finding it is a turbulent industry buffeted by
political as well as economic winds.

He says his Rubyland Tourism Services Co., one of Myanmar's first private
travel agencies and tour operators, has been profitable since it was
established seven years ago. But earnings have tumbled from a peak in the
year ended March 31, 1995.

He attributes the sharp decline in the arrival of package tourists to
activists in the U.S. and Europe who try to isolate Yangon over its
shortcomings in democracy and human rights. Campaigns have been mounted
urging visitors to stay away, using the argument that the ruling council
benefits most.

"If tourists don't come, people will lose jobs" at a time when the economy
is already reeling, Mr. Aye Kyaw says. "The most the government can earn is
about 1% from our income tax."

He estimates that the number of travel agents has fallen to about 400 from
600 a year ago, after the government cancelled 150 licenses. It said some
agents were operating illegally, or failing to comply with regulations. Of
those still standing, Mr. Aye Kyaw reckons only about 50 turn a profit.
"It's very hard to survive," he says.

Rubyland is now handling 200 foreign visitors a month, he says, 80% of them
Europeans -- mainly from Italy, France, Germany and Britain.

Still, he is pressing ahead with plans to expand. Mr. Aye Kyaw, who has one
small hotel for budget travelers in Yangon, is looking for joint-venture
partners to fund resort or boutique hotels on two plots of land he owns,
one in Mandalay, the other in Pagan. That might be a hard sell, considering
that foreign investors in Myanmar hotels currently are losing money.

"They made the mistake of building in the standard, high-rise style," he
says. He has in mind bungalows set in trees and gardens, with each hotel
split into three, four and five-star sections, to cater to different
segments of the market.

He no longer complains about unfair competition from the hotel-owning
government tourism authority. Now he complains about unfair competition
from foreign tour operators, arguing that they shouldn't be allowed to take
business from locals.


Mr. Aye Kyaw has drastically restructured Rubyland, raising the family
stake to 90% from 30%. He progressively bought out all but three of the 27
friends who contributed capital to get the company going, paying them a
total of 150 million kyats, three times their investment.

He has given his son, 20 years old, who is completing a business-management
course in Myanmar, a 10% shareholding in Rubyland. The idea is to have him
take over most operations, leaving Mr. Aye Kyaw free to develop the hotel
business, after the son has followed well-heeled countrymen abroad and
obtained a degree in business administration in the U.S.

THE DISSIDENT

Mr. Win Pe, 62, used to describe himself as a jack-of-all trades: musician,
painter, cartoonist, journalist, gem merchant, arts administrator, film
director, writer. Now, add dissident.

He is living in self-imposed exile in the U.S., working on Myanmar-language
programs for Radio Free Asia. That makes him an enemy of the SPDC, which
has denounced the U.S. Congress-funded RFA.

A prominent intellectual with a national reputation for moviemaking, Mr.
Win Pe says he never intended to remain abroad. He accepted an invitation
to participate in an international writers program at the University of
Iowa in 1994 _ and just sort of stayed on.

"At that time I was making video productions and I had a lot of work plans,
for another year at least," he says.

Unable to get approval to attend the writers program in 1993 -- Myanmar
citizens have to wait about three months to obtain a passport, pay for air
tickets in dollars and provide documentation in support of travel plans --
Mr. Win Pe invented a program to ensure that he got there the following
year: He told the authorities he was going to Canada for a vacation.

He spent a month studying film in Hollywood, courtesy of the U.S.
Information Agency, followed by three months in Iowa. "After that, I
thought of something," he says, though he won't say exactly why he decided
not to go home.

With a display of artistic temperament, he says simply that he wanted to
paint. While living with a friend in a small town in Texas for three
months, he produced semiabstract, abstract and illustrative works, before
heading to New York.

After successfully seeking political asylum, he lived for two years by
selling his paintings and translating books. "I went to the museums,
galleries, Broadway shows, having a nice time there," he says.

But the cost of successive eye operations, for cataracts and a detached
retina, led him to seek regular employment. For the past two years, he has
lived in Washington and worked on RFA's hour-long morning and evening shows
beamed to Myanmar -- writing, editing and presenting.

"Our main target is the people of Burma, supplying them the information
they have been deprived of by their own government," he says.

He knows he has burned his bridges as far as the military leadership is
concerned. "It is totally impossible for me to go back, at least for the
time being," he says. "I'd be arrested right away."

His wife, Khin Myaing, 62, joined him last year, though he hasn't seen his
five children in more than four years. He hasn't seen two of his four
grandchildren at all, "but I have the photographs."


Mr. Win Pe says he doesn't intend to take U.S. citizenship. "I love my
country," he says. "I can only survive in my own country. Once it has been
freed, I must go back."

While few analysts think the military will be forced to relinquish its grip
anytime soon, he believes the situation in the country can change rapidly.
"It's getting more and more unstable," he says. "I'm not losing hope at all." 

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REUTERS: MYANMAR LEADER IN THAILAND FOR DRUG BORDER TALKS 
8 March, 1999 by Sutin Wannabovorn 

CHIANG RAI, Thailand, March 8 (Reuters) - Myanmar premier Senior General
Than Shwe arrived in Thailand on Monday for talks on border disputes and
narcotics trafficking, which Thailand has called the biggest threat to its
national security.

The visit is the first on a bilateral basis by a Myanmar leader since
Myanmar troops crushed a pro-democracy uprising in 1988 provoking
widespread international condemnation.

Than Shwe, dressed in a blue suit rather than his usual army green, was
accompanied by senior figures of his military government including powerful
military intelligence chief Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt.

The Myanmar leader was to hold talks with Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai on
narcotics suppression and border disputes.

He appears set for some tough talking with Thailand wanting action to stem
a flood of heroin and amphetamines from Myanmar's factories and a
resolution to a simmering maritime row that has claimed several lives.

Thailand picked for the location of the meeting a royal crop substitution
project about 40 km (25 miles) from this northern town and just 10 km (six
miles) from the Myanmar frontier. It is on the edge of the "Golden
Triangle" opium growing region formed by the borders of Myanmar, Laos and
Thailand.

"We will focus on cooperation in narcotics supression," Chuan told
reporters as Than Shwe arrived. "Narcotics are a danger to people all over
the world not just in Myanmar and Thailand."

Thailand has been praised for the success of its opium eradication efforts
through crop substitution.

Myanmar insists too it is putting significant efforts into the fight
against drugs despite a lack of outside assistance. But it remains,
according to the United States, the world's biggest producer of heroin.

Last week during a visit to Thailand, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright said Myanmar could do a better job and criticised the generals for
protecting drug lords. Thailand is the last of the eight other member
states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Than Shwe has visited
since Myanmar joined the grouping in 1997.

Myanmar's entry into ASEAN provoked controversy because of its human rights
record.

Recently Thailand had the unenviable task of attempting to mediate a row
caused by the European Union's refusal to accept Myanmar's foreign minister
at an EU-ASEAN ministerial conference next month.

Yangon has stood its ground and insisted on its right to attend, and the
meeting now appears unlikely to take place. 

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THE BANGKOK POST: PROTEST OF THAN SHWE'S VISIT SWAMP NEWSPAPERS 
9 March, 1999 

RIGHTS GROUPS BLAST CHUAN GOVERNMENT

Human Rights groups and exiled Burmese students have been flooding the
newspapers with statements protesting against the Rangoon leader's visit.

Forum-Asia, an umbrella organisation for 14 regional human rights and
development groups, blasted the Chuan government for keeping the programme
of Gen Than Shwe's visit under wraps.

The Chuan government should give the Thai public a chance to debate the
visit and be "open and transparent" in its policy towards Burma, it added
in a letter to the prime minister, copies of which were faxed to news
organisations. The letter was handed in at Government House.

The group called on the Chuan government to push for tripartite
negotiations between the ruling State Peace and Development Council, the
National League for Democracy of Aung San Suu Kyi and minority groups, and
a transfer of power from the SPDC to the NLD.

It urged the Chuan government to take a tougher stand in support of
democracy, human rights and peace in Burma.

The group called on the Thai government and its counterparts in Asean to
lead the Burmese leadership towards international practices in human rights
and democracy rather than let- it use them as instruments for enhancing its
image and legitimacy.

The group denounced the Rangoon military junta on three counts:

* involvement in the production and trafficking of drugs, and protection of
drug kingpin Khun Sa.

* failure to respect Thai sovereignty through the use of Buddhist Karens to
attack refugee camps and Thai military outposts along the border, causing
loss of life.

* inhumane treatment of Burmese people and minority groups causing a
million political and economic refugees to flee to Thailand.

Altsean-Burma, an alternative Asean network on-Burma, said Gen Than Shwe's
visit was "pointless" because of the junta leader's failure to enter into a
dialogue with his fellow students.

Without a dialogue between the junta, the NLD and ethnic leaders, which
would be the first significant step to stability in Burma, "Thailand will
continue to have massive problems over territorial disputes, refugees and
drug production in Burma," the network said.

The Overseas National Students Organisation of Burma, and the All-Burma
Basic Education Students Union (Thailand), called on Prime Minister Chuan
to avoid cooperation with the military in the drug issue.

They urged him to reconsider boycotting the ministerial meeting of the
European Union and Asean set to take place in Berlin later this month
because of the EU's refusal to admit Burma to the gathering.

The EU strongly opposed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations'
admission of Burma in July 1997 because of the military leadership's poor
democracy and human rights record.

The Karen National Union called on Mr Chuan to press Gen Than Shwe for
progress in peace talks between Rangoon and the KNU.

KNU first general secretary Pado Mahn Sha called on the military junta to
stop human rights violations and Rangoon's attempt at "ethnic destruction"
against the Karens and other minority groups.


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ANNOUNCEMENT: THE IRRAWADDY MAGAZINE 
9 March, 1999 from waddy2@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 

Dear past, present and future subscribers to The Irrawaddy:

Over the past seven years, The Irrawaddy has matured from a newsletter
focused on human rights violations into a Burma-oriented newsmagazine. Our
first regular issue of 1999 marks the beginning of a new phase in the
evolution of The Irrawaddy, as it becomes a regional newsmagazine.

The Irrawaddy is more aware of events in the region.  While retaining its
primary focus on Burma, the newsmagazine will also feature stories on
events in Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia. The Irrawaddy is also
interested in outside viewpoints.  The editor has invited journalists,
activists, and experts involved in a variety of economic, political,
environmental, social and media issues within and beyond the Southeast
Asian region to contribute articles, which will be regularly featured in
the Guest Column section.

This new era of The Irrawaddy features a more mature layout. It consists of
24 pages containing the seven regular sections: Intelligence; News in
Brief; Cartoon; Business; Editorial; Feature Articles; and Guest Column;
plus five new sections: Regional Briefing; Quotes of the Month; Regional
Feature Articles; and Culture, Society and Arts.

We hope you enjoy our new look.

Sincerely,
Editor, The Irrawaddy

In the February issue:

An editorial on the Interpol conference on heroin;

An interview with Col. Yord Serk of the Shan State Army;

The New Light of Myanmar's take on the Western boycott of the Interpol
conference; 

An article on what the new 1000-kyat note may indicate about the state of
Burma's economy;

A report on recent Shan deaths linked to poisoned rats; 

An analysis of what was behind the recent release of two prominent
pro-democracy activists; 

Two views on the future of Thai-Burma relations, one looking at military
cooperation, the other at the persistent problem of illegal immigration;

A special guest column on the need for a spiritual revolution; 

An examination of the prospects for justice in Cambodia, and how the
questions being asked there might apply to Burma; 

A new Culture, Society and Arts page, this month featuring a look at cigars
and cheroots in Burmese culture;

And regular features, including News in Brief, Business, Intelligence, and
the new Regional Briefing. 

The Irrawaddy is published by the Burma Information Group (BIG).  BIG was
established in 1992 by Burmese citizens living in exile and is not
affiliated with any political party or organisation. The Irrawaddy seeks to
promote press freedom and access to unbiased information.

Contact address:
P.O. Box 242
Chiang Mai University Post Office
Chiang Mai 50202
Thailand

P.O. Box 14154
Silver Spring 
MD 20911
USA

waddy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
waddy2@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

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ANNOUNCEMENT: REPORT ON US GOVERNMENT FUNDING AVAILABLE 
8 March, 1999 

A report with the latest data regarding the U.S. Governments' funding to
Burmese dissident groups and NGOs during 1998 is now available.  The
funding was through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).  Some of
the funding is  from the US Department of State.


To receive a copy of the report, please contact Julien Moe at
moe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

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BURMANET GOPHER 
10 March, 1999 

Perhaps the best Burma information search tool available online

The BurmaNet Gopher searches the igc conference reg.burma (a mirror of
burmanet-l) from its beginning at the end of 1993.

Click below, or enter the address in your web browser's "open" box.

gopher://gopher.igc.apc.org:2998/7REG-BURMA

Enter your search topic and press "Enter"

Since the gopher has a default of 40 topics, you have to append to your
query "-m 13" (or whatever maximum number of topics you want, being careful
to leave a gap between your keyword and the hyphen).  (e.g."kachin -m 13"
gave 13 documents out of 769.  "kachin -m 130" gave 130).  It also supports
Boolean searches.  Thus, when you put in "kachin -m 300 AND women", it
gives 300 (out of 352), and when you narrow it down to "kachin -m 300 AND
women AND 1994", it gives 212 documents.

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