ASIAWEEK: KOSOVO'S TRAGEDY: Despi

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Subject: ASIAWEEK: KOSOVO'S TRAGEDY:   Despite its hamfisted intervention

                 KOSOVO'S TRAGEDY

   Despite its hamfisted intervention, NATO has no choice
                               but to win



YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC is not the only one with his
back to the wall in Kosovo. The United States-led NATO forces arrayed
against him are also
painted into a corner. After laying its diplomatic and military credibility
on the line and helping trigger
a humanitarian catastrophe in the process, the world's mightiest armed
alliance is scrambling to pull
something presentable out of the Balkan quagmire. Its options are limited.
NATO must create
conditions that will allow the Kosovar refugees expelled by Serb forces to
go back home and curb
the ability of Milosevic, or any future imitator, to commit genocide and
destabilize entire regions. In
the current, ugly situation, there seems to be no viable substitute for a
military victory by the
Western alliance. That would mean sending ground troops into the Serbian
province if air strikes fail
to drive out Milosevic's soldiers. 

NATO's performance so far inspires little confidence. Yes, Milosevic's
atrocious behavior toward
the ethnic-Albanian residents of Kosovo before the bombing began was crying
out to be stopped.
But the plan that Washington and its allies devised - the Rambouillet
accord - was flawed from the
start. Besides autonomy for Kosovo, the withdrawal of most Yugoslav
security forces and the
stationing of foreign troops as monitors, the blueprint left wide open the
possibility of independence
for the province - something no national leader, especially a staunch
nationalist like Milosevic, was
likely to swallow. Then, when NATO launched its bombing campaign, it
expected, in the words of
its military committee chief Gen. Klaus Naumann, "that Milosevic would
blink and give in." That
hope now seems naive or downright foolish. 

Worst of all, the Western alliance was caught off guard when Serb forces
began herding
ethnic-Albanian civilians, who make up 90% of Kosovo's two-million
population, out of their homes
and into reluctant neighboring countries at a terrible cost in misery and
lives. Yet once the air strikes
started, Milosevic's only logical option was to alter the realities on the
ground - that is, to remove
wholesale the Albanian community at the heart of the conflict and present
the world with a fait
accompli. NATO strategists now say they expected some expulsions but were
surprised by the
speed and viciousness of the Serb campaign. That only underscores the
ineptitude of NATO
planning. Then there is the damage inflicted on the civilian population in
Serbia, the support the
strikes have stirred for Milosevic, and the anger sewn in Russia and many
other parts of the world
against Washington and its allies. 

But all that does not mean NATO should ground its planes and return meekly
to the negotiating
table. At present, Milosevic has the upper hand. He has essentially cleared
Kosovo of its Albanians.
He has survived not only the threat of force but force itself. If bombs
have left him unmoved so far,
talk is unlikely to do much better. And unless Milosevic pulls out, the
Kosovar refugees cannot go
home. Whatever his promises - and he has offered a ceasefire and an open
door - sending the
traumatized Kosovars back without removing the Serbian instruments of
oppression would be
unworkable and morally untenable. And if the refugees remain stranded in
border camps or
resettled in third countries, that not only destabilizes Serbia's neighbors
but gives the green light to
every dictatorship to expel unwanted minorities onto the laps of the
international community. 

Asia's reaction to the crisis has been mixed. China has vehemently
condemned what it sees as
high-handed U.S. intrusion in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation.
Premier Zhu Rongji
wondered out loud if Kosovo meant foreign powers might one day intervene in
Tibet. Another
critic, India, was infuriated when Pakistan compared Kosovo with Kashmir.
On the other hand,
Singapore, worried by bubbling ethnic tensions in Indonesia, has quietly
cheered U.S. efforts to
impose stability. And Malaysia has loudly applauded the raids as necessary
to protect the Muslim
Kosovo Albanians. U.S. ally Japan has offered only lukewarm support, urging
a diplomatic solution.
Most other Asian nations have kept their heads down. 

NATO's conditions to Milosevic are clear. He must end military action and
repression in Kosovo,
withdraw his troops, allow the deployment of an international military
force, agree to the return of all
refugees and access by aid organizations, and provide a "credible assurance
of his willingness" to
work on a political accord that would give Kosovo substantial autonomy.
Certainly, the allies must
keep fighting until Milosevic agrees, sending in ground troops if
necessary. After that the situation
gets more complicated. NATO is considering making the province an
international "protectorate"
with the involvement of the United Nations and of Russia. The help of those
two parties - especially
Moscow - is essential if the solution is to be acceptable to Serbians and
their Russian kin. 

All that amounts to little more than a giant band-aid, but it will end the
fighting and underscore that
genocide and expulsions of entire populations will not be tolerated. The
protectorate may have to
remain for decades, until cooler heads and warmer hearts prevail. Meantime,
all nations - and
especially the U.S. - need to study the Kosovo debacle. They must ponder
how not only to prevent
such tragedies in future, but also to avoid worsening them through
hamfisted intervention.