NEWS - A maturing conflict

[Rangoonp@xxxxxxx]

Bangkok Post - June 13, 1999

GUEST COLUMN / BURMA

A maturing conflict
Young people across Burma are facing the harsh reality that their fight
for democracy will be a long, hard struggle.

U Win Naing

Over ten years ago in 1988, thousands of Burmese teenagers came out on
to
the streets in all big cities and towns in Burma asking for freedom and
human rights. Hundreds were shot dead and many more were jailed. Some of
them are still in prison. Some fled to foreign countries.

The teenagers of 1988 are now 25-29 years old, the best time to enjoy
life
or try for one's dreams. But is there any opportunity for these young
Burmese to pursue their dreams? The answer is no.

Political and social conditions during the past ten years have changed
these
young people's values. Educational drawbacks caused by a long closure of
colleges and universities have pushed thousands of students into
idleness
and made them vulnerable to drugs, alcohol and other misdemeanours.
Burmese
youth have come to believe that it is of no benefit to them to pursue
further education and they now pay more attention to the ever pressing
economic problem.

The search for education and knowledge is replaced by the search for
jobs
and hard cash. The effects of this will be felt in the next decades when
Burma needs intellectuals and experts to develop the country. Right now,
all
the colleges and universities in Burma remain closed due to the military
government's fear of political unrest. They are unlikely to be reopened
in
the near future.

The younger Burmese generation has lost their future as well as the
opportunity to enjoy life like young people in other countries. The
global
community should pay close attention to this. They should immediately
start
working to help restore the right to education in Burma.

Some sceptics are wondering how many Burmese will have to die before the
superpower nations come to help, not unlike what is being done for the
unfortunate people of Kosovo. Certainly this is a naive question, but as
the
saying goes, a drowning man would grab a straw for help.

As a politician, I always try to inform the people that we will have to
rely
on ourselves to achieve our goals. If we want our basic rights we will
have

to get them ourselves. If we want to set up a democratic system in our
country we will have to do it ourselves.


Certainly any help from other countries or individuals would be welcome,
but
mainly we will have to fight on our own terms. This message must be sent
to
every single Burmese throughout the country. They must be made to
realise
that this is the only way to achieve any gains.

What are they afraid of? They have been shot at. They have been jailed.
They
have been pressured to abandon their homes and livelihoods. That's what
they
are afraid of, and they do not see any saviour coming to help.

We are not dispirited or demoralised as far as our fight for democracy
and
equal rights is concerned. We will certainly fight on, but unfortunately
it
is going to be a long and hard struggle.

At the same time, Western countries wishing to help the Burmese people
must
understand the real situation in Burma.

The western powers' present policy is to force the military government
to
immediately surrender to the National League for Democracy (NLD), which
won
the 1990 general election. I want the world powers to realise that this
is
impossible under the present circumstances.

The NLD has made many wrong moves in trying to wrest power from the
military. It has implemented unpopular policies which created a very
tense
relationship with the military. So much so that it is now almost
impossible
to bring the two rival camps to the negotiating table.

The ruling generals believe the NLD and its leaders are bent on crushing
the
armed forces and punishing them for their past actions. The generals
also
believe the NLD is under the influence of western powers.

After ten years of unchecked power, the military men have entangled
themselves in controversies which have become a threat to the entire
nation.
Their infamous relationship with former drug lords, the alleged funding
of
drug money in the state economy and infrastructure works, undemocratic
concession rights offered to the former armed ethnic insurgents in
return
for a ceasefire and abuse of power throughout the country are just a few
examples. Pro-democracy activists in Burma, including myself, are very
unhappy with these developments, but we could not stop them from taking
place.

How are we going to stop these destructive developments to our country?
Or
to be more candid and precise, the question should be: "How are we going
to
eliminate the military dictatorship in Burma?"My answer is we cannot and
we
shall not. At least not now.

The most open-handed method would be to put up an armed struggle against
the
military government, and I am totally and absolutely against this policy
for
obvious reasons.

Firstly, the Burmese armed forces are very strong. They have increased
their
manpower from around 100,000 in 1988 to over 300,000 in 1999. The
military
has discreetly strengthened itself with more fire-power and proved to be
one
of the most well-trained fighting forces in Southeast Asia with a lot of
fighting experience.

It has fought a non-stop civil war between 1948 and 1999 against
different
ethnic insurgent groups and battled with the Chinese Koumintang forces
in
early 1950s. It will be an almost impossible job to recruit a fighting
force

against the Burmese army.

The only other alternative to resolve the Burma problem is to handle the
issue peacefully and make rival groups negotiate and compromise. In my
opinion, the military government is going in one extreme direction and
the
NLD in another.

The military does not respect or trust the politicians. It wants a part
in
national administration. However, the NLD will not accept the military's
involvement in politics. It wants the soldiers back in their barracks.

This difference has to be bridged. It will not be easy, but it is the
only
option left to save the nation from falling further into the abyss of
chaos.

The issue becomes more difficult to resolve when some nations are
backing
the NLD's confrontational policies and at the same time pressuring the
military to step aside entirely. This is wrong. We need the armed forces
to
keep the Union intact. Burma is a federated Union of many ethnic
minorities
and there are many ethnic states openly talking about secession or
joining
neighbouring countries. We cannot let this happen.

Deep conflicts between the armed forces and the political organisations
would give the secessionists an opportunity to part with the Union.

I have pointed out to my foreign friends that they should give priority
to
local factors in assessing Burma's situation. They should meet with more
locals and listen to their views and opinions. Policy-makers in the US
State
Department and the Foreign Offices of Western countries should try new
approaches now.

In place of a policy which says "they must practise our ways", they
should
try "we will help the locals try their ways and see."Unfortunately, most
of
the diplomats in Rangoon whom I talked to disagreed with me on these
points.
In spite of that, I must keep on presenting my views because I believe
in
them.

I believe that foreign countries should have more contact with the
military
government and offer more options than they are now. They should study
carefully the problems the military government is facing and work
together
for mutually acceptable solutions. An immediate change to the system in
Burma is not possible under the existing circumstances. The change must
be
gradual.

However, friendly persuasion alone will not move the generals. We need
some
form of pressure as well. Every individual, organisation and government
should adopt a carrot-and-stick policy if they really want to help us
gain
our freedom.