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ASIAWEEK: THE JUNTA'S 'STRONG MAN'



          THE JUNTA'S 'STRONG MAN'

            Is Than Shwe the undisputed real power?

                            By Roger Mitton/Yangon 


THIS WEEK IS PORTENTOUS for Myanmar. A visiting
four-member European Union team has been speaking to the leaders of
both the military regime and the National League for Democracy.


Previously, the E.U. refused to sit in the same room as the generals. Now,
a breakthrough glimmers following a brave concession by the embattled
NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi that she would not veto "lower-level"
talks with the regime which exclude her. If the E.U. builds on this by
offering incentives to the ruling junta in return for political reform, then
progress may be possible. Whatever happens may largely depend on one
person - not Suu Kyi, not the E.U. president or any other Western leader,
but Senior Gen. Than Shwe. 

For seven years, he has been head of Myanmar's ruling State Peace &
Development Council, prime minister, defense minister and
commander-in-chief. But because Than Shwe maintains a relatively low
profile, and because his generals boast of a "rule by consensus," there is
confusion about who is really in charge. Some say strategist Lt.-Gen. Khin
Nyunt, because of his
longevity and prominence among the ruling clique, though, formally, he
ranks only third. Above him, at No. 2, is the tough army boss, Gen. Maung
Aye, with whom Khin Nyunt is said to clash - though this seems a
diversionary myth that amuses rather than upsets the generals. Says Suu
Kyi: "One is not quite sure who is actually the dominant leader of the
regime." But the thinking now in
Yangon is that Than Shwe is increasingly calling the shots. 

A senior Yangon-based diplomat who often meets the junta leader says: "Than
Shwe is on top of everything, very shrewd, not this perceived nice-guy
balancer between Khin Nyunt's pragmatists and Maung Aye's conservatives,
but a real power in his own right." In Myanmar, little is ever certain.
Than Shwe, 66, cuts a deceptively benign figure and is often jokingly
referred to as a
"strong man" because he has fathered eight kids. He is strong in other
respects too. Says Forestry Minister Aung Phone: "Than Shwe will point at
us and ask, 'What have you done today?' You better be able to tell him.
Even figures. I have to plead 'tomorrow' - he wants so much detail."


Adds the diplomat: "Than Shwe is more substantive than most people give him
credit for. He speaks English well now. In group discussions with foreign
leaders, he does not need to rely on aides or to refer to Khin Nyunt or
others. This is a man in charge." 

And a man of fairly simple tastes. Portly, golf-playing Than Shwe lives
with his family in a modest house behind a blue metal gate. In the past, he
was said to be too tolerant and this led to rampant corruption among fellow
officers. But he finally cracked the whip and sacked a slew of ministers in
November 1997. Says minister Brig.-Gen. Maung Maung: "When he is firm, he is
very firm. But he treats us all as younger brothers. He's very reasonable."
The Europeans - and everyone else - will be banking on that.