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NEWS - New Study Examines Prospects



Subject: NEWS - New Study Examines Prospects For Central Asia, Caucasus

East: New Study Examines Prospects For Central Asia, Caucasus

By Ben Partridge - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

A new study conducted by Britain's Jane's publishing group finds that
the nations of Central Asia are becoming an
increasingly important stronghold of the global narcotics business. As
our correspondent in London reports, drug trafficking
in Central Asia is adding to the problems of a region already
overwhelmed by organized and casual crime, struggling to
cope with poverty, and divided by internal political strife.

London, 22 July 1999 (RFE/RL) -- The new report says one Central Asian
country alone, Kyrgyzstan, now exports more
narcotics than either Myanmar (Burma) or Thailand, two of the world's
largest producers of illegal drugs.

The report by British security experts appears in Jane's Sentinel, an
analytical journal issued by Jane's publishing group.
The report says Central Asia -- long a route for narcotics smuggling
from Afghanistan and Pakistan -- is increasingly a
source of illegal opiates in its own right. The report says this has
important ramifications because a large part of the spoils
of illegal narcotic smuggling goes to fund the armies of regional
warlords.

The report says the five emerging states of Central Asia continue to
present a mixed picture almost a decade after they won
their independence after the 1991 disintegration of the Soviet Union.

With the possible exception of Kyrgyzstan, democratic principles are
widely flouted. Tajikistan is still riven by a sporadic civil
war. The region's economies remain, in the words of the report, "largely
primitive." And the hoped-for wealth from the
Caspian region's rich but largely untapped oil and gas reserves has so
far rarely benefited the mass population.

The report notes that severe poverty, interethnic strife and
separatist-minded movements are problems shared by many of
the CIS countries. Many are suffering from the turbulence associated
with the formation of newly independent countries.

The report finds that the long-term economic crises in many of the CIS
nations have been aggravated by the Russian
financial collapse of last year. It says this dragged down economies
that had begun to make progress toward reform and
stability. It has also worsened social and political tensions.


Analyst Paul Beaver, who contributed to the report, says the economic
crisis could lead to a renewal of tensions in the CIS
region. 

"In some key areas, we are going to see a renewal of tensions. They
really have not got their economic situation sorted out.
They really have not got themselves sorted out in a number of key areas,
which bodes ill for the winter."

The report identifies a number of disputes, primarily in the Caucasus,
which could flare into open warfare or renewed
separatist fighting:

-- No long-term solution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute over the
separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh has yet been
found.

-- In Georgia, wars in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, though frozen at
present, could reignite. The refusal by the Abkhazian
and, to a lesser extent, South Ossetian authorities to allow Georgian
refugees home could increase popular pressure for a
further war.

-- In the Russian Caucasus, the fragile peace in Chechnya is under
threat, while unrest is likely in the neighboring region of
Dagestan.

Paul Beaver says the potential for a spread of tensions in the CIS
region, including the Central Asian and Caucasus
countries, is one reason why NATO is pushing its Partnership for Peace
program.

He notes that 11 of the 12 CIS countries -- including all the Central
Asian countries except Tajikistan, and the three
Caucasus countries, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia -- have signed
NATO's Partnership for Peace framework document.

Beaver suggests that NATO is trying to promote stability and ensure that
the transitional nations will not be forced back into
dependence on Moscow. 

"The North Atlantic Council is trying to bring together some of the
former Soviet states in Central Asia, going as far as
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzia (Kyrgyzstan). Really what they are trying to do
is to ensure that there is no spread of fighting, of
tensions, and they are trying to ensure that they all speak with one
voice, that they won't be so poverty-stricken that they
will go crawling back to Russia. That's a major NATO concern."

The report notes that the question of NATO enlargement has prompted
strong and understandable opposition in Russia,
which fears that it could perpetuate the division of the continent with
"Russia on the wrong side of any divide."

However, the report expresses hope that as Russia itself becomes more
involved in NATO's affairs and in joint operations in
the former Yugoslavia, "then Moscow's suspicion and hostility to the
alliance will be defused."