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deep-rooted By Anastasia Stanmeyer  
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                     a s i a w e e k  m i l l e n n i u m  s p e c i a l 


MORE AND MORE, THE PEOPLE GET
                          THEIR SAY

  Democracy in Asia will become increasingly deep-rooted

                           By Anastasia Stanmeyer 


ANCIENT ATHENS HAD THE world's first democracy.
Everybody had a vote. Except women, slaves, beggars and people
below 30. Clearly, the Greek model could use some fixes. The same
goes for modern-day Asia, many of whose nations are still a long way
from establishing genuinely democratic cultures. Democracy gives
people not only the right to vote, but also political and civil rights to
fulfill their needs. It allows rich and poor, weak and strong, equal
priority and justice. 

By those yardsticks, will Asia become truly, deeply democratic? Not
in the next decade or two, say political pundits. Take a look. India's
democracy is vigorous and rambunctious, but also extremely volatile.
It has produced three governments in three years, as well as one of
Asia's more corrupt societies. The Philippines and Thailand still must
deal with military and land-owning interests that keep many people
poor. Singapore and Malaysia have the form, but not the essence, of
democracy. Like Japan, they have returned the same parties to power
virtually uninterrupted since Independence, and one key reason is that
the opposition has been kept weak. Indonesia? It has taken a baby step
toward rule of the people. Myanmar hasn't even begun to crawl. Nor
is Cambodia much better off. There, a virulent civil war and Khmer
Rouge savagery have badly eroded the political and economic
institutions "without which one cannot even begin to talk of
democracy," notes Joel Rocamora of Manila's Institute for Popular
Democracy. 

Even so, indications are that democracy will ultimately bloom in
Asia. The region has taken great strides toward liberalization in
recent decades, and the pace is likely to quicken in the new
millennium. Despite early Greek theorizing, only in the 20th century
has democracy come to be considered the "normal" form of
government, argued Nobel laureate and economist Amartya Sen at a
World Bank conference on democracy in Seoul earlier this year.
Suffrage became universal just this century, as women in newly
independent Asian countries like India, the Philippines and Malaysia
got the vote. 

Some experts believe that one person, one vote will spread even to
China, spurred by economic progress. The communist nation will
become a representative democracy around 2015, predicted Henry
Rowen of Stanford University's Hoover Institute. Citing Rowen's
theory, former Philippine presidential security adviser Jose Almonte
has said that Beijing's efforts to build a rule of law as the basis for
doing business, and the erosion of its control of information organs,
are crucial changes spurring political transformation. "That the state
still penalizes individual dissent so heavily seems a sign of how
shaky the foundations of central control have become," Almonte adds.
Other analysts disagree. They believe that while Beijing will allow
the Chinese more freedoms, it will always counter threats to stability. 

The prognosis for Indonesia is a bit clearer and more positive,
especially after the country's June 7 polls. As a democratic exercise,
the elections were a small, if historic, step. But the new government is
under great pressure to install liberal institutions. Megawati
Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle finished first
with 34% of the votes, though it must work with other parties to form
a coalition government. The new president is supposed to be chosen
in November, and Muslim parties have major reservations about a
woman leader. But the real test -and the key to democracy's future in
Indonesia - is how well the new government can deliver a better
standard of living. 

In Malaysia, the government of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is
more powerful than that of President B.J. Habibie in Indonesia.
"Although more of a mess, Indonesia is now much more democratic,"
argues Rocamora. The sacking and jailing of former deputy premier
Anwar Ibrahim for abuse of power has raised doubts about political
freedom in Malaysia. The reformasi movement that has surged with
Anwar's tribulations could herald a livelier democracy. And the
upcoming general election could provide pointers to the prospects for
liberalization. However the polls go, once Mahathir leaves, his
successors will have a harder time keeping the lid on reform. 

For Thailand and the Philippines, the challenge isn't in maintaining
formal democracies, but freeing them from elitist control. In the
Philippines, the ruling powers are able to exert pressure on the mass
media and maybe rewrite the Constitution to serve their own ends.
Thailand has moved beyond its military regime with tight control over
the provinces, to a democracy giving them greater autonomy. Yet the
provinces are still run by corrupt warlords wielding much economic
power. Thailand's constitutional reforms are laudable, but its
democratic paradoxes will not be removed until Thai society
becomes more egalitarian and its wealth is more evenly distributed.
That is not likely to happen anytime soon. 

So what is spurring democracy in Asia? Global trends aside, it's the
economic crisis. U.S. political scientist Francis Fukuyama believes
that the region is being drawn into convergence with Western
liberalism because of economic turmoil. Fukuyama, author of The End of History
and the
Last Man, a seminal work on democracy's triumph after the Cold War, argued at
the Seoul
conference that the Crisis "has led to the unconditional defeat of the
Japanese
economic
model of state-led development." It has also cast doubts on the
growth-boosting
credentials
of Asian authoritarianism - long its main claim to legitimacy. 

It is a sobering lesson for countries that sacrificed democratic principles in
the pursuit of
development. For others, the chances for political freedom have increased as
they have
become wealthier. According to Pei Minxin, a China analyst and former
Princeton
University
professor, rising affluence tends to make countries remain free longer. So
while Thailand's
democracy may be immature, at least it is there to stay, Pei believes. With a
per-capita
income of $6,000 in purchasing-power parity, Thailand is unlikely to see its
democracy
reversed. (PPP provides a more comparable measure of wealth.) By the same
calculation,
the Philippines, with a per-capita PPP of $2,000-$3,000, is ensured democracy
for another
26 years, while Cambodia, with $1,000, can hope for at least eight years. 

Poverty alleviation has become the buzzword of liberal politics. Leading the
movement are
non-government organizations, or NGOs - local or foreign groups offering
humanitarian aid
or empowering individuals. Their numbers are growing, and their key role in
democratic
development has only recently been recognized. They're clenching fists for
women's rights,
battling big business to ban logging, and teaching AIDS awareness to migrant
workers. Over
the next decade and beyond, the relationship between government and civil
society will
continue along current trends. Throughout Asia, governments are ceding
power to
the private
sector, including NGOs, sometimes by choice, often by necessity, states Peter
Geithner of the
Asia-Pacific Philanthropic Consortium. Government's declining role is opening
up space for
both business and the non-profit sector to expand. The market, not the
government, is seen as
the engine of development. 

Most important is the prospect of pulling the government's sticky fingers out
of certain pies,
as that would diminish the proclivity for corruption. In the Philippines, for
example, the
opening up of major sectors such as banking and telecommunications has reduced
the scope
for graft. If democratic principles had been followed in Indonesia, cronyism
may not have
taken such a deeply rooted and menacing hold. And if India's government had
kept its nose
out of business and trade, petty corruption may not have so blighted that
country's democracy.
But there is hope. More public participation should heighten Asia's sense of
the common
good and democratic justice. And greater economic rewards should make it all
the more
worthwhile. 

                       VOTING VIA THE INTERNET 

You are already late for work. You quickly log into your computer to check
messages. A
memo appears on your desktop that it's election day for Hong Kong's
legislature, so you click
into the voting website, pull up a ballot, mark your vote and add your
signature, all
electronically. Two minutes later, you're out the door. When you return home
that evening,
you log in again and check the government website for final election results.
They were
calculated swiftly, accurately - and with an 80% voter turnout. 

Governments are now considering computerized voting. Its convenience is bound
to boost
the votes cast in an election, says a spokesman for Hong Kong's constitutional
affairs bureau.
In North America, people are already registering to vote by computer.
U.S.-based Election
Systems and Software Inc. says that besides Internet voting, people will
eventually be
casting ballots by telephone and interactive TV. Constituents can be virtually
anywhere in the
world and not miss an election. 

Such new technologies can also be used to conduct electronic referendums on
key
issues. But
some problems remain to be ironed out, notably authenticating ballots and
maintaining
confidentiality. Maybe a special pin number could be used for each individual,
or "smart
cards" issued with a magnetically encoded strip or hologram. There has been
talk about
using biometrics for authentication, including fingerprints, voice and eye
scans. Solutions are
likely to be found before long, certainly early in the new millennium.