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[suriya@xxxxxxxxxxxx]

                     a s i a w e e k  m i l l e n n i u m  s p e c i a l 


          CHALLENGE TO THE FREE

Ending repression was easy; now we must defend freedom

                             By Fidel V. Ramos 


OVER THE NEXT 20 years, Asia's weight in the world will
increase as its economies emerge from financial crisis and its
political systems become more people-empowered. In 1992 the
World Bank had projected that by 2020, six Asian economies would
be among the 10 largest in the world. Just now, this expectation seems
hopelessly optimistic. Yet, Asia's fundamentals remain sound, and I,
for one, believe it is likely to become a power- house of economic
vigor once again. 

Meanwhile, Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand have shed generations
of military rule. Indonesia has just held its first free election in 44
years. Even in China, the "softening" of totalitarianism seems well
along. In Beijing and the provinces, distinct power centers are
emerging whose interplay impinge more and more on the making of
public policy. A greater diversity of political interests seems
unavoidable in China's future ñ and its rulers realize it. That is why
they are suppressing individual dissent so firmly. 

Replacing authoritarian regimes with representative systems was
relatively easy. But the rule of the people does not necessarily mean
good government. While democracy's trappings ñ elections,
parliaments, free newspapers, independent judiciaries ñ are easy to
assemble, making them work properly for common people requires a
long learning process. In a society of "big people" and "small
people," the common folk often have extravagant expectations of
government. Thus, a 1993 survey found 85% of Filipino respondents
saying it is government's obligation to provide jobs for everyone; and
84% saying it is the state's task to provide a decent income for all. 

It appears that democracy develops best where it develops
incrementally ñ with gradual but consistent reforms in the political
and civic landscape instigated by economic change. In the West,
electorates were enfranchised gradually. It took the British almost 150
years to develop a middle-class Parliament. By contrast, the advent of
democracy in the Third World has been telescoped. In relative terms,
Asian politics is still where Britain was when rotten boroughs were
bought and sold. Consider how complicated just counting and
validating the returns for last June's parliamentary elections has
proved to be in Indonesia. 

I see making democracy work for the benefit of ordinary people as
Asia's biggest challenge over the next 20 years. Fortunately,
democracy has become part of the spirit of the new millennium. Even
authoritarian regimes claim they are acting on behalf of their captive
peoples. And, even more fortunately, there are outside forces to shore
up Asian democracy where it falters. Foremost among these is the
market system, which has changed East Asia dramatically over the
last two decades. Open markets have not merely brought faster and
more sustained growth to Asia; they have also been a liberating force.
Just as early capitalism subverted feudalism in Western Europe, so
has economic competition eroded authoritarianism in East Asia. 

In the era of globalization, even foreign investments can have a
democratizing influence. Consider how Beijing is being compelled to
respect and exercise the rule of law as the basis for foreigners doing
business in China and to assure the sanctity of contracts as part of its
efforts to attract outside capital and technology. Much of this imported
technology, particularly that in the information and communications
industries, makes more difficult the state's control of people's minds
and directions. Indeed, the whole post-industrial era ñ whose key
resource is intellectual capital ñ requires for its evolution in any
given country a drastic expansion of individual freedom. 

To give democracy the time it needs to mature throughout Asia, our
statesmen must ñ in concert ñ create the environment that stimulates
socio-economic development and the rise of civil society. We must
never forget that peace and development are two sides of the same
coin; one cannot progress without the other. I see as the key to
enduring peace in the new century the accommodation of the
legitimate ambitions of the rising powers ñ China foremost among
them ñ for influence in regional affairs. Finding a practical way of
making this happen will not be easy. Providentially, none of the
powers faces an immediate threat, and rivalry among them has lost its
ideological edge. 

We must cool down the periodic crises in Kashmir, the Korean
Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait. The conflicting claims over the
Spratlys must be put into a more cooperative framework because the
South China Sea is at the strategic crossroads of Southeast Asia.
Specific efforts in this direction by the great powers, the ASEAN
Regional Forum, APEC and the region's security community will be
bolstered by fast-growing inter-regional trade, investment and
tourism. Economic interdependence may not guarantee peace and
stability, but it does create a powerful incentive for avoiding violent
conflicts through the promise of a bountiful harvest of shared benefits.

Fidel Ramos was President of the Philippines from 1992 to 1998