The BurmaNet News: September 9, 199 (r)

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Subject: The BurmaNet News: September 9, 1999

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The BurmaNet News: September 9, 1999
Issue #1355

Noted in Passing: "Myanmar does not have a sex industry." - SPDC
spokesperson (SEE THE NATION: ILO BLASTS BURMA OVER FORCED LABOUR)

HEADLINES:
==========
NATION: AN AIR OF HOPE PREVAILS IN BURMA 
ABSDF: STRONG SIGNS OF 9999 POPULAR MOVEMENT 
AP: DISSIDENTS URGE MEDIA BAN 
REUTERS: MYANMAR QUESTIONS BRITISH WOMAN OVER PROTEST 
AFP: MYANMAR REJECTS AIDS CONTROL CRITICISM 
NATION: ILO BLASTS BURMA OVER FORCED LABOUR 
NATION: FORTUNE FAILS TO FAVOUR DISPLACED BURMESE 
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THE NATION: AN AIR OF HOPE PREVAILS IN BURMA 
8 September, 1999 by Min Zin 

SKEPTICS, CALLING THE BURMESE POPULATION 'NUMEROLOGICALLY- OBSESSED', HAVE
MISINTERPRETED THE 9-9-99 MOVEMENT. BUT THE SITUATION IN BURMA IS RIPE FOR
POSITIVE SOCIAL CHANGE, WITH OR WITHOUT THE FOUR 9s, WRITES MIN ZIN.

Will the people of Burma take the 9-9-99 numerical cue and participate in a
planned uprising to end military rule tomorrow? In an atmosphere of tight
control and zero tolerance of dissent, the overt call for demonstrations
may seem mere wishful thinking.  However, an analysis of the current
situation shows that the 9-9-99 movement coincides with conditions that are
ripe for major social change in Burma.

Skeptics, calling the Burmese population "numerologically-obsessed", have
misinterpreted the movement, suggesting that opposition leaders have called
for an uprising this Thursday out of context of the true social situation.

In fact, setting that date is a practical publicity consideration in a
society where information is tightly controlled. It has also captured the
imagination of the people, both inside and outside of Burma. Moreover,
9-9-99 is not so much a leader-designated date as a manifestation of the
hope for social change of a broad base of mostly anonymous people inside
Burma.

Indeed, the situation in Burma is ripe for positive social change, with or
without "9-9-99". The current momentum of growing dissent indicates that
the military and the opposition are approaching a final showdown.

The opposition groups calling for change have a number of factors in their
favor. The political, social, and economic situations have become
untenable. Politically, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) has
had to shift toward considering tripartite dialogue with the National
League for Democracy and ethnic leaders (the opposition's political agenda)
because its own previous priority, the National Convention, has lost almost
all legitimacy.

In addition, the regime has failed to create any lasting political
solutions with the ceasefire groups, many of which have damaged the regime
politically through involvement in the illicit drug trade.

The most severe problem the military is facing is the economy. Economic
crises tend to politicize ordinary people and embolden them to call for
change. Related to this problem are the broader social problems, including
the education and health crises. The people's frustration is understandably
high.

The military also has internal problems to contend with. Since the
government reshuffle in late 1997, the new SPDC structure has intensified
the power struggle among the various factions within the military, and
there is growing dissent among grassroots military men. Even if the
high-ranking officers seem to agree on maintaining the basic status quo,
they disagree on how to handle Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD.

That is not to say that the military is going to split soon. However, if
something like a nationwide mass mobilization were to happen, it would be
very difficult for the generals to convince the soldiers to shoot the
demonstrators, as they did on Aug 8, I988.

When the generals gave the order to crack down on the students during the
1996 December student demonstration, even the riot police were reluctant to
beat the students and twice resisted the orders. The protesters will have
increased international attention working in their favor as well. In
contrast, the grassroots under-ground networks of students, monks and
workers are strengthening. The current increase in political activity by
high school students has encouraged long-term activists and suggests that
the movement will continue to broaden.

In a recent interview with Asiaweek Suu Kyi said: "If you mean would we
support a spontaneous demonstration by the people for better conditions,
certainly we would. Why shouldn't we? We know that there is a need for
better conditions." Her statement lends considerable legitimacy to the call
for demonstrations.

Mass uprisings, whenever and wherever they happen, cause a crisis of
legitimacy for the government, and a power vacuum inevitably ensues. A mass
uprising alone cannot bring about genuine positive social change unless the
people manage to fill the power void. This was the problem that
pro-democracy advocates encountered in the 8-8-88 movement when they failed
to form an interim government Now, with last year's formation of the
Committee Representing People's Parliament (CRPP), the vital leadership is
in place to fill the power vacuum and solve the transitional needs.

The people's high expectations, based on these prospects for change, must
take into account a number of significant challenges their aspirations.

Over the past month. the SPDC has stepped up its intimidation efforts to
preempt an uprising. Troop deployment in "hotspots" around Rangoon and
Mandalay have become more visible Arrests, restrictions on gatherings,
domestic guest registration requirements, and checkpoints have all
increased. The logistical challenges in trying to organise mass resistance
are significant. With universities shut down, there are very few open
places for students, who historically have led the popular movements in
Burma, to gather.

Also, because of Buddhist Lent and related precepts, monks are not allowed
to travel and move freely. Communication problems also abound.

Many activists have trouble communicating because of severe restrictions on
travel, tight control on gatherings, and suspicions of spies. Leaders such
as Suu Kyi and the CRPP are forced to use an information network that is so
slow that sometimes it causes vagueness and a lack of guidance in
operational planning.

The pro-democracy forces also expect major challenges from the military if
and when people do come out onto the streets. The use of violent force is
an obvious potential response, but the SPDC may be more subtle. The
government may create communal disturbances and counter-riots to divert
attention by enflaming religious and racial tensions. Civilian supporters
of the government may be used to intimidate and suppress anti-government
protests through "civilian" clashes.

If the SPDC begins to feel it is being backed into a corner, it is likely
to offer a fake dialogue to appease the people. In such a situation,
cosmetic, concessions are likely, even more so with the UN Deputy
Secretary-General Alvaro de Soto planning to visit Burma soon. With the
growing momentum of people power in Burma, the opposition will be on guard
against such ploys, and may even be able to turn them to their own advantage.

The outcome has not been predetermined, of course, and the future is
unpredictable. Martin Luther King Jr noted, though, that the arc of history
bends toward justice. The Burmese opposition needs to make preparations
conducive to a mass movement. Without the necessary preparations, even
numerology is of little use. But the current prospects for social change in
Burma indicate that there is a real atmosphere of possibility for positive
social change. If the people take to the streets, 9-9-99 will mark the
beginning of a wave of change that will wash over Burma. 

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ABSDF: STRONG SIGNS OF 9999 POPULAR MOVEMENT DESPITE INCREASING SECURITY
7 September, 1999 

On 5 September 1999 a demonstration by monks was reported to have taken
place in Mandalay.  Following this the authorities imposed a curfew on the
city.  A few days prior to this, several posters were found calling for
monks to gather for a meeting aiming to enforce the popular action call on
September 9 (9999) in `Ma Soe Yein monastery`.  The monk gathering ended
with a harsh crackdown and according to informed sources, several monks
were arrested and hurt at the scene.

In Rangoon, three satellite towns - Daw Bon, Dala and Dagon Myo Thit - had
curfews under Section 144 of Criminal Procedure imposed upon them
following demonstrations by students from several high schools.

Since the beginning of September, in Mon Ywa, a major city on the route to
India in Sagaing Division, an unknown number of people were detained after
a harsh crack down on rice donations.  The detentions were made after a
verbal confrontation between the authorities and local people.  The
confrontation started after the authorities ordered the end of donation of
rice by local rich people to the low-waged weavers who have recently lost
their jobs because of the economic crisis.  It was thought that the local
authorities stopped the event due to embarrassment.

Meanwhile, posters, leaflets and pamphlets calling for people to join in
the 9999 popular movement and to end military rule in Burma were widespread
in Shan State (Taung Gyi, Si Saing, Kalaw, Aung Ban), Kachin State (Ban
Maw, Shwe Ku, Moe Mauk), Karenni State (Loikaw, Phe Khon), Pegu State,
Sagaing Division (Mon Ywa), Magwe Division, (Pakokku), Mandalay and in
Tennasserim Division.  All distribution was carried out under tight security.

Information has been received regarding heated debate over the 9999 popular
action inside the ranks and files of army and police units.  Posters and
leaflets calling the soldiers to stand by the side of the people and to
join in the democracy movement have been widespread in the units.
Information regarding the arrest of three junior officers in the military
base of Light Infantry Division (101), in Pakokku, has been received.  The
junior officers were reportedly debating the 9999 action.

Aung Thu Nyein, general secretary of the ABSDF said, "these actions have
occurred even under harsh security control.  The military government seems
to be losing ground and this shows in their overreaction.  The ABSDF feels
very optimistic regarding the call for popular action (9999) and hope this
momentum of popular political awareness will overcome the current regime.
We will enforce this momentum and believe 1999 will be a new era for
democracy in Burma.". 

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ASSOCIATED PRESS: DISSIDENTS URGE MEDIA BAN 
6 September, 1999 

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) - Dissident students are appealing for a popular
boycott of Myanmar's state-run newspapers, which they accuse of being
abusive and aggressive toward democratic forces.

The appeal by the All Burma Students' Democratic Front is part of the
group's campaign for the people of Myanmar, also known as Burma, to hold
anti-government demonstrations on Sept. 9.

"The state-controlled media consistently uses overtly abusive and
aggressive language against the democratic struggle and democracy leaders.
It breaches all principles of journalism and ethics of media," a statement
from the Thai-based group said.

All news media in Myanmar is dominated by the government, which has been
run by the military for 37 years.

Newspapers regularly include invective against opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace laureate, whose party won general elections in
1990 that the military has not honored.

Editorial comments are repeated daily, urging readers to" crush" the
government's opponents as enemies of the state.

The Front said these newspapers were" degrading the pride of the nation,"
and urged people" not to buy, not to read and to tear up these newspapers
in support of the call for popular action on 9999."

The dissident group, largely made up of veterans of major protests in 1988,
in which thousands were gunned down by the military, is promoting Sept. 9
-- 9-9-99 -- as an auspicious day for another attempted uprising.

The government has accused the Front of running a smear campaign ahead of
that date to cause unrest, and has threatened to" annihilate" opponents
agitating for demonstrations. 

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REUTERS: MYANMAR QUESTIONS BRITISH WOMAN OVER PROTEST 
8 September, 1999 

BANGKOK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - A 28-year-old British woman arrested for
protesting against Myanmar's military rulers in central Yangon was being
questioned by authorities on Wednesday, the British embassy said.

Witnesses said human rights worker Rachel Goldwyn was detained on Tuesday
afternoon after tying her hand to a lamp-post at a key intersection and
shouting pro-democracy slogans.

"She's being questioned...at the moment we are just finding out as much as
we can," said a spokesperson for the British embassy in Yangon.

In a statement released by the All Burma Students' Democratic Front, a
dissident group in exile, Goldwyn said she had made her protest against
human rights abuses and in solidarity with the dissidents' call for a
national uprising starting on Thursday.

She called on Britain to enact unilateral economic sanctions on Myanmar and
criticised British firms doing businesses there.

She said her concern about the rights situation in Myanmar was ignited when
she worked in a refugee camp on the Thai-Myanmar border." I saw people who
had been forced off their land into concentration camps, people who had
been tortured...women who had been raped and landmine victims," her
statement said.

Government officials have yet to comment on the arrest. Britain's Foreign
Office said on Tuesday officials had been in touch with Myanmar's Foreign
Ministry to ask for consular access.

The incident was the second in a week in Myanmar involving British
pro-democracy activists.

The British embassy said it was "concerned" on Tuesday after its consul was
denied access to James Mawdsley, 26, a Briton jailed last week for 17 years
for pro-democracy activism.

The British consul had travelled to Myanmar's remote Shan State on Saturday
in the hope of getting access to Mawdsley, who was arrested on August 31
and sentenced the following day.

Yangon said on Tuesday that access to Mawdsley, who was being held in
prison in the remote northeastern town of Kengtung, was being arranged and
would be granted soon. Mawdsley had been detained in Myanmar twice before
for pro-democracy activism.

The arrests came as dissidents stepped up activity after calling for a mass
uprising on the numerically significant" four nines day" -- Thursday,
September 9, 1999.

Diplomats estimate the government has arrested more than 100 activists in
Yangon and more in the provinces in the past month to thwart the campaign.

Myanmar's military does not tolerate protests and has been criticised
worldwide for rights abuses since taking direct power in 1988 by killing
thousands to crush a pro-democracy uprising.

It ignored the result of the last election in 1990 when the National League
for Democracy won by a landslide and has since tried to silence dissent
through arrests and intimidation.

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AFP: MYANMAR REJECTS AIDS CONTROL CRITICISM 
8 September, 1999 

BANGKOK, Sept 8 (AFP) - Myanmar on Wednesday rejected warnings it could
face an AIDS epidemic unless it cooperates more closely with Thailand to
control the spread of HIV among seafarers.

Speakers at a major conference on maritime workers Tuesday said not enough
was being done to stop the spread of HIV in the maritime industry.

"It is a cross border issue and there has been very limited activity in
this area in most countries in the region," said Dr Wiwat Rojanapithayakorn
from the United Nations organisation UNAIDS.

"For example if the Thai government initiates a program then the other side
will not participate or if the Myanmar government initiates something the
Thais say it's Myanmar's problem."

Myanmar's government said in a statement sent to AFP it was taking steps to
control the spread of HIV, but played down the extent of the country's AIDS
problem.

"Myanmar does not have a sex industry and the number of drug users compared
to other countries is very much less," a spokesman said.

Cross border programs were underway in the Myawaddy, Kyaington, Tachilek,
Kawthaung and Muse border areas, the spokesman said.

"Myanmar is actively participating in UNAIDS regional programs, ASEAN
regional programs and Greater Mekong Subregion AIDS program," it said.

Health experts estimate up to 13 percent of maritime workers plying the
waters off Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia are infected with HIV - the virus
which causes AIDS.

Illegal workers from Myanmar make up about 80 percent of seafarers
operating off Thailand's coast.

No one at the Thai ministry of public health was available for comment.

UNAIDS estimates there are about one million HIV/AIDS sufferers in Thailand
and 440,000 in Myanmar.

It has warned the number of HIV sufferers in Asia could soon outstrip
sub-Saharan Africa.

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THE NATION: ILO BLASTS BURMA OVER FORCED LABOUR 
8 September, 1999 

THE International Labour Office (IL0) yesterday slammed Burma for its wide
spread use of forced labour, saying it saw no hope of working with the
junta to improve working condition

ILO envoy Werner Blenk, visiting Bangkok for a three-day Asian regional
meeting on the worst forms of child labour, said the ruling military had
consistently flouted the most basic humanitarian principles.

"We do not see at present any possibility to work inside Myanmar [Burma],"
said Blenk, who heads the ILO's international programme on the elimination
of child labour. The ILO view is that if a country over a very long period
has shown very clearly that they flout the most basic Principles of the ILO
then there is simply no scope for cooperation."

The International Labour Office is the secretariat of the International
Labour Organisation, which meets annually and in June rejected Burma,
accusing it of the widespread use of forced labour.

The Burmese junta stands accused of a catalogue of human rights abuses
including rape, torture and holding political prisoners. The United States
and the European Union enforce a range of punitive sanctions, including
trade and visa bans.

The ILO is hosting a meeting on child labour beginning today at Phuket,
grouping representatives of governments, workers and employers from 13
countries.

The meeting is part of an International Labour Organisation campaign for
the ratification of a convention adopted in June banning the worst forms of
child labour, aimed at liberating millions of exploited Asian youngsters.

The convention targets child trafficking, child prostitution, forced
recruitment of youngsters into military service, selling drugs and work
that endangers health.

Werner warned Asian countries of most concern were those which had declined
to work with the ILO in tackling the issue of child labour.

In Rangoon, the Burmese junta issued a new warning yesterday that it would
mete out tough treatment to unruly dissidents as exiled activists claimed a
revolt was building against the military junta.

"Appropriate and necessary action" would be taken against anyone disturbing
law and order, Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Khin Maung Win was quoted as
saying in a press statement.

He accused "subversive elements within and outside the country" of inciting
unrest in collusion with Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition National League for
Democracy (NLD).

Dissidents hope to foment civil unrest tomorrow, or 9/9/99, dubbed Four
Nines Day, to remember a crackdown on a student uprising on Aug 8, 1988, or
8/8/88, in which hundreds of people died.

Planned action includes a general strike, civil disobedience and a boycott
of media controlled by the junta, which refuses to cede power to he elected
democratic opposition of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Already intense security has been further stepped up in the capital Rangoon
and around the country ahead of the planned action, witnesses said.

The foreign affairs minister was quoted as telling heads of a mission from
the Asean countries on Monday that any uprising would be "in vain". 

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THE NATION: FORTUNE FAILS TO FAVOUR DISPLACED BURMESE
8 September, 1999 by Yindee Lertcharoenchok 

OUTSPOKEN BRITISH MINISTER ROBIN COOK'S CANCELLATION OF HIS TRIP TO
THAILAND HAS ROBBED BURMESE REFUGEES OF A VALUABLE OPPORTUNITY TO FURTHER
HIGHLIGHT THEIR PLIGHT AT A CRITICAL TIME, WRITES YINDEE LERTCHAROENCHOK.

It came as no surprise that some Thai government agencies, particularly the
Interior Ministry, showed hesitancy about granting British Foreign
Secretary Robin Cook's request to visit a Burmese border refugee camp for
his scheduled visit to Thailand this week.

Cook, who yesterday cancelled his two-day trip at the last minute due to an
emergency meeting on East Timor in New Zealand, initially planned to arrive
here later today. He had made it known that a tour of a refugee camp would
be part of his itinerary and Burma would be one of his talking points with
Thai government officials.

He had requested a visit to a border camp for tomorrow, Sept 9, 1999, and
that had surprised most Thai government agencies as they are quite uneasy
about any happening on that auspicious date.

Before he cancelled his trip, he was offered a compromise - a tour of Tham
Hin, a border camp sheltering about 8,000 Karen refugees in Ratchaburi
province. That was arranged for Friday instead of the requested "9999" -
the jinx date which has sent jitters down the Burmese junta's spine for the
past two months.

As the 9999 "cursed date" closes in, the unease seems to have spread across
the common frontier and Thai security agencies are now also bracing
themselves in reaction to widespread rumour, prediction and speculation
that a mass uprising will take place across Burma. In Bangkok as well as in
border provinces, Thai authorities are on alert to prevent potential
Burmese unrest or untoward violence that might occur simultaneously.
Surveillance is in effect on major urban and border hubs of Burmese living
in exile, and on their movements. Security along the 2,600-km Thai-Burmese
frontier has also been beefed up, especially after the Burmese decision to
close down major crossings with Thailand last week.

As one Thai security official put it, the situation along the border from
the North down to southern Ranong province has been very tense in recent
weeks, and both sides have placed their troops on alert.

Whether the Burmese military regime truly believes a popular uprising will
take place tomorrow remains questionable, but it certainly has left no room
in terms of precautionary actions to weed out any sign of political unrest. 

In fact, some Thai and western Burma watchers have cast strong doubt that
anything at all will happen.  According to a western diplomat, Burma's 1988
pro-democracy uprising  was spontaneous and the result of decades of
suppressed popular discontent with intolerable political, economic and
social situation. This time all those factors have not ripened to encourage
the people to revolt, he noted. Another western Burma watcher put it more
clearly: "You can't plan an uprising."

Interestingly, some Burma watchers agree global speculation and campaign
provocation of a 9999 upheaval might, unfortunately play into the junta's
hands and provide it with a good pretext for a nationwide crackdown on
democratic politicians and activists of the National league for Democracy.

Some Thai government and security officers suspect Cook's border trip - the
initial requested date being on 9-9-99 - was deliberately timed to coincide
with the 9999 event. To them, Cook's presence at the border would have been
"a blessing in disguise" to the democratic Burmese movement in and outside
of Burma, as well as "sending a wrong signal" to Burmese advocates of a
9999 upheaval.

The British foreign secretary is known as one of the strongest critics of
the Burmese ruling generals and a strong supporter of tougher sanctions
against the military regime.

For Cook and his team, their visit to the border camp could have gone
beyond giving mere moral and material support to the refugees. The Burmese
fugitives, themselves would get the chance to explain their plight, the
cause of their flight across the border and their future as they see it,
particularly on being repatriated to Burma.

Moreover, Cook would have had a good opportunity to learn more about
another potential human crisis arising inside Burma. As several ethnic
refugee organizations have stated in recent situation reports, a more
pressing problem that requires urgent global attention and action is
assistance for hundreds of thousands of internally displaced Burmese.

These ethnic relief groups have in recent months called for assistance to
alleviate the suffering and severe food and medical shortages confronting
displaced ethnic groups uprooted from their villages and forced into hiding
along the rugged Thai Burmese border as a consequence of the Junta's
systematic relocation and forced labour policy.

Their most recent rough estimate of the displaced in 1996-1997 was 300,000
Shan in Burma's northeastern Shan State, 80,000 Karenni, 300,000 Karen, and
60,000 Mon. The figures are said to have increased proportionately in the
past two years.

If Cook had been able to visit the camp, no matter how briefly, it would
have provided him with a full picture of the over all condition of the
estimated 100,000 Burmese refugees and nearly a million internally
displaced Burmese, and offered a window to learn first-hand of the real
deteriorating situation in Burma and why the refugees do not want to go
home to all manner of official harassment against their own family members
and relatives.

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