AFP-East Timor crisis heralds chang

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Subject: AFP-East Timor crisis heralds change in ASEAN and regional power struggles

East Timor crisis heralds change in ASEAN and regional power struggles
BANGKOK, Sept 26 (AFP) - The crisis in East Timor has focused attention on
what analysts see as a time of change for ASEAN and potential battles for
political influence in the region.
"I think that history will say a new chapter is being written in the
development of Southeast Asia and the development of ASEAN," says Thai
deputy foreign minister Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

Indonesia has long been considered the "big brother" of the 10-member
Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

But with the eruption of the Timor crisis and the departure of veteran
Indonesian president Suharto, the last of the bloc's founding fathers, ASEAN
is at the crossroads.

Sukhumbhand stressed that it was only with Indonesia's approval that
Thailand accepted the job of deputy commander of the UN multinational force
in East Timor, under Australia's overall command.

But he acknowledged the East Timor crisis had reinforced Thailand's
determination to play a "proactive role in international affairs."

"Everything is so intertwined that to say that we want to be involved in
economics only and leave politics and security to other people is wrong,"
Sukhumbhand told AFP.

"If we can have very firm principals behind our foreign policy we can be an
effective player in multilateral diplomacy ... the East Timor problem for
example is where we can be an effective player."

Thailand's assertiveness may conflict not only with its more conservative
ASEAN partners but also with Australia's desire to become the pre-eminent
security force in the region.

Inspired by Australia's appointment as leader of the East Timor force, Prime
Minister John Howard last week announced plans to boost defence spending and
take on the role of America's "deputy" in Asia.

This prompted a barrage of criticism from some ASEAN members, including
Thailand, which currently chairs the regional bloc.

"ASEAN must play the primary role in Southeast Asia," said a Thai foreign
ministry official, branding the "Howard doctrine" inappropriate.

Professor Hari Singh from thee National University of Singapore said
Thailand's response may indicate a brewing power stuggle between Bangkok and
Canberra.

"I was a bit surprised that Thailand came out so strongly against the Howard
doctrine," he said.

"However, Thailand may be competing with Australia for middle-power
influence in the region, more so given that Indonesia's influence is
declining," he added.

With Australia asserting itself over East Timor, Singh said ASEAN was under
even more pressure to abandon its policy of non-interference in members'
internal affairs.

"The doctrine of non-interference has already come under a lot of strain
over Burma (Myanmar) -- they talk about flexible engagement, so there have
already been a few precedents set," said Singh.

"Timor is just another addition to that, sooner or later they may have to
abandon the policy and they are abandoning it," he said.

Singh argued that when ASEAN was formed in 1967, autocrats like Suharto and
former Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos drew up the policy of
non-interference "to preserve their regimes."

"That no longer applies because most of the regimes have gone ... today
there is a lot of talk about democratisation, civil society and this
undermines this notion of non-interference," he said.

But Thailand faces a quandary -- how to implement its goal of what
Sukhumband describes as "making the world a better place" while still
adhering to ASEAN's central precept of non-interference.

This dilemma was reflected in a recent interview in a Bangkok newspaper with
a Thai policeman sent to East Timor as a UN monitor.

The officer said although he was appalled to witness the brutal murder of an
old man outside a polling booth, he declined to identify the suspects.

"I did not want to hurt ties between Indonesia and Thailand," he was quoted
as saying.