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Asiaweek: The power of Burma's area



Subject: Asiaweek: The power of Burma's area commanders 

Who Rules on the Ground?
The power of Myanmar's area commanders
more info: <A 
HREF="http://cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/magazine/99/0903/nat_myanmar.html";>http:
//cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/magazine/99/0903/nat_myanmar.html</A>
               http://www.student.ipfw.edu/~soem01 
By ROGER MITTON Yangon 
THEY ARE TOUGH TO dialogue with, but they are not dinosaurs and they wield
extraordinary power." The Yangon-based ambassador is talking about a
low-profile but high-powered group who look after Myanmar's large, disparate,
resource-rich - and often rebellious - regions: the area commanders. Together
with seven better-known leaders like Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt, the
12 regional generals sit on the ruling State Peace and Development Council.
Their influence on national policy pales beside that of the Yangon hierarchy,
but in the regions they rule.

"The commanders really govern the country," says a Yangon businessman. "The
cabinet is just an assembly of figureheads, perhaps with the exception of
Foreign Minister Win Aung." And the post of area commander can be a stepping
stone to greater things; junta head Than Shwe was the Pathein-based South-West
commander in 1980-1985. Says a diplomat: "Area command is the route to 
power." 

The 12 commanders take a low profile in the capital - they rarely go there and
some avoid it as much as possible. Myeik-based Sit Maung of the Coastal Region
Command complains of too many directives from Yangon and is apt to give them
short shrift. With this independent streak, coupled with the distance from the
capital and the loyalty they receive from their men, area commanders get
respect from Yangon. They tend to be left alone, as long as their region is
stable and corruption contained. Commanders vet business contracts, resource
extraction, property development, schools, markets, and road- and
bridge-building. They control police, security and intelligence operations; no
one moves in their area without their nod. This power offers gains - military,
political and material.

In the decade since ex-dictator Ne Win's barmy socialism gave way to
deal-making, junta leaders have watched their upcountry colleagues grow 
wealthy
and in some cases very antsy. Things came to a head in late 1997; several
commanders were "demoted" to cabinet posts in Yangon, like Kyi Aung and Saw
Lwin (now ministers for information and tourism). Their commands went to
younger men who showed more rectitude and fidelity. As well, some commanders
brought into the cabinet before 1997 were sacked for rampant corruption. Most,
like Tun Kyi and Kyaw Ba, who ran the Commerce and Tourism ministries, had
already got rich as regional commanders.

"Both Tun Kyi and Kyaw Ba often refused requests from the center when they 
were
commanders," recalls a government official. Timber, for instance, is a big
state revenue earner - and a lucrative spin-off for area commanders, who 
decide
how much wood goes out of any region. "As the economy languishes, area
commanders are cutting deals in logging," says a diplomat. But Forestry
Minister Aung Phone told Asiaweek: "We have no difficulties with the area
commanders. We tell them how much can be cut. They work with us."

U.S.-based academic Mary Callahan, who has studied the Myanmar military,
believes: "Ongoing tensions between the junta leaders and the upcountry
commanders may not be resolvable by cabinet and command reshuffles. If the
center wants greater control over resources and the commanders balk, the 
regime
will have to find some kind of compensation for commanders to give up their
power and wealth." Some think the armed forces may revert to the pre-1988
practice of moving the commanders around every three years.

The ultimate junta nightmare is secret collusion among commanders. Adds 
another
Yangon professional: "Myanmar politics has not progressed beyond the raw power
dimension. While the commanders may not have the intention, they do have the
capability to produce political change." To forestall this, the top leaders
brought all the commanders into the nation's ruling council in late 1997.

A local editor notes: "The commanders are mostly educated, in their fifties.
They are inaccessible to media - but not to businessmen. Their priority is
security." Many are closer to army boss Maung Aye than other junta stalwarts,
especially in the skirmish-prone border areas. The "white-collar" Khin Nyunt
makes regular visits, but, says a businessman, "Maung Aye appointed the
commanders and relies on them as his powerbase." Under him, the military has
expanded over the past decade to around 430,000 men, deploying large regional
garrisons rather than relying on a rapid reaction force from the center. 

Most of the commanders speak English, but are cautious with outsiders. Those
who are effective but prickly are consigned to less rewarding areas. The
uncompromising, long-serving Western commander Aung Htwe is in Sittwe, "the
equivalent of being posted to Kosovo," as a diplomat puts it. There are 
endemic
troubles in this largely Muslim region.

Other generals are viewed as future national leaders. Ye Myint, the
Mandalay-based Central commander, is said to be in line to replace Secretary-2
Tin Oo. In the South-East, Mawlamyine-based Myint Aung, the youngest commander
and a former top cadet, could be the next Khin Nyunt. Indeed, for Myanmar's
future leaders, the place to look is the regional commands. However, this
dominant dozen won't talk much and seems quite happy to stay out of the
limelight - for now.