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Burma/Myanmar - What next?
- Subject: Burma/Myanmar - What next?
- From: m.win@xxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 09:11:00
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
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=20
Information with regard to Burma=20
Published by PD Burma.=20
=20
=20
Burma/Myanmar - What next?
=20
By Harn Yawnghwe, Director,=20
European Office for the Development of Democracy in Burma, Brussels.
Published in Bulletin of European Institute for Asian Studies. Vol. 3, =
Issue 9, October 1999.
=20
The Finnish presidency surprised the world by starting its term in July =
with a Troika Mission to Rangoon. Given the EU's strong position =
regarding the Burmese regime's participation in EU-ASEAN meetings in =
Berlin in March and the extension of the EU Common Position on =
Burma/Myanmar in April, the Troika Mission raised questions as to =
whether there had been a significant change in Burma or whether the EU =
was preparing the way to relax its position vis-=E0-vis human rights in =
Burma in favour of trade.
=20
The fear that the EU was softening its human rights stance was allayed =
on 11 October when the EU's Common Position on Burma was extended for =
another six months.
=20
The question as to whether there has been a change within Burma itself =
is somewhat more complicated. From the human rights point of view, =
nothing has changed with regards to the repression of the democratic =
opposition. In fact, it has worsened which justifies the EU extension of =
its restrictions.=20
=20
For example, hundreds of dissidents and potential dissidents were =
arrested in August and September in a pre-emptive strike by the regime =
to prevent a mass uprising on 9.9.99. The excessive prison sentences of =
two British activists, James Mawdsley (15 years) and Rachel Goldwyn (7 =
years), are an indication of the panic and repression in Burma today, =
not to mention the death in custody of 2 Burmese newspaper workers after =
they and their colleagues were arrested for wrongly captioning a =
photograph of one of the ruling generals.
=20
What was intriguing about the Troika Mission was the very fact that =
visas were granted and the Mission was allowed to meet not only Aung San =
Suu Kyi and leaders of the National League for Democracy (NLD), but also =
with the leaders of ethnic-based political parties. Normally, the =
Burmese would have denied the Mission visas in retaliation for the EU's =
visa ban for senior officials of the regime. Prior to the Troika =
Mission, the military had also started making the right noises about =
dialogue with the NLD and the role of Aung San Suu Kyi, the NLD and =
other democratic forces to help rebuild the country. Since the regime =
believes that it is the sole guardian of Burma's non-disintegration, =
sovereignty, and solidarity, this was surprising.
=20
But whatever the EU or the Burmese military had in mind, everything =
started to unravel in October beginning first with the seizure of the =
Burmese embassy in Bangkok by armed gunmen, then the armed clashes =
between Thai and Burmese troops, and finally the failure of the UN =
mission to Burma led by Assistant Secretary-General for Political =
Affairs Alvaro de Soto, who visited Rangoon 14-18 October with a World =
Bank representative.=20
=20
The Burmese democracy movement has been non-violent and it remains so. =
But the new violence indicates that time is running out. Fringe groups, =
frustrated by the lack of progress on the political front, are beginning =
to take drastic action. The danger is that if the political stalemate in =
Burma continues, more and more dissidents could turn to violence which =
even Aung San Suu Kyi may eventually not be able to control.=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
=20
The problem is that the military is paralyzed by fear. The generals' =
rejection of the de Soto mission shows that they are not ready for =
mediation and resent the implication that they can be bribed by World =
Bank loans. The extent of the generals' paranoia can be seen in how they =
are currently turning against Thailand, one of the ASEAN countries that =
lobbied the hardest for Burma with the EU. Angered by the non-violent =
resolution of the Bangkok embassy crisis and the escape of the gunmen, =
the Burmese have stopped all border trade and reinforced its troops on =
the borders, accusing Thailand of aiding the gunmen. Whenever domestic =
pressures build up, the Burmese generals have always evoked a 'foreign =
threat' to diffuse the situation.
=20
For the first time, Thailand has not backed down. Crack troops are being =
sent to the border. The Burmese generals may have miscalculated this =
time and instead of relieving the domestic pressure, they may have also =
created a real 'foreign threat'.=20
=20
The EU should perhaps practise conflict management before Burma's =
problems become regional ones which will affect EU-ASEAN relations. =
Building on the Troika Mission, the EU might be in a better position =
than the UN to foster dialogue between the military and Aung San Suu =
Kyi. The UN attempt was seen by the Burmese as an imposition of an =
'outside' solution. The EU needs to avoid this by first consulting more =
widely and on a more sustained basis with - the military, Aung San Suu =
Kyi, the NLD, the ethnic-based political parties, the exiled National =
Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, the border-based ethnic =
armies, the Burmese expatriate community around the world, and other =
governments including China, Japan and India.
=20
Given that the EU Common Position is in place for another six months and =
the fact that the European Parliament will not let the Common Position =
be watered down without any real political reforms, an EU initiative =
might be acceptable to Burma's democratic friends. Finland's human =
rights stand and Portugal's championing of the East Timorese cause could =
also stand the EU in good stead. The key is to get the Burmese to talk =
to each other. Time is running out. =20
=20
=20
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yes"> =20
</SPAN>PD<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =
</SPAN>Burma.</SPAN></I><I><SPAN=20
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<P align=3Dcenter class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 21.35pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><B><SPAN =
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 11pt; mso-ansi-language: =
EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><U><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 16pt; mso-ansi-language: =
EN-GB">Burma/Myanmar=20
-<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>What=20
next?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></U></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><U><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 16pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></U></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">By=20
Harn Yawnghwe, Director, <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">European=20
Office for the Development of Democracy in Burma,=20
Brussels.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Published=20
in Bulletin of European Institute for Asian Studies. Vol. 3, Issue 9, =
October=20
1999.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
Finnish presidency surprised the world by starting its term in July with =
a=20
Troika Mission to Rangoon. Given the EU’s strong position =
regarding the Burmese=20
regime’s participation in EU-ASEAN meetings in Berlin in March and =
the extension=20
of the EU Common Position on Burma/Myanmar in April, the Troika Mission =
raised=20
questions as to whether there had been a significant change in Burma or =
whether=20
the EU was preparing the way to relax its position vis-=E0-vis human =
rights in=20
Burma in favour of trade.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
fear that the EU was softening its human rights stance was allayed on 11 =
October=20
when the EU’s Common Position on Burma was extended for another =
six=20
months.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
question as to whether there has been a change within Burma itself is =
somewhat=20
more complicated. From the human rights point of view, nothing has =
changed with=20
regards to the repression of the democratic opposition. In fact, it has =
worsened=20
which justifies the EU extension of its restrictions. =
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">For=20
example, hundreds of dissidents and potential dissidents were arrested =
in August=20
and September in a pre-emptive strike by the regime to prevent a mass =
uprising=20
on 9.9.99. The excessive prison sentences of two British activists, =
James=20
Mawdsley (15 years) and Rachel Goldwyn (7 years), are an indication of =
the panic=20
and repression in Burma today, not to mention the death in custody of 2 =
Burmese=20
newspaper workers after they and their colleagues were arrested for =
wrongly=20
captioning a photograph of one of<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>the ruling generals.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">What=20
was intriguing about the Troika Mission was the very fact that visas =
were=20
granted and the Mission was allowed to meet not only Aung San Suu Kyi =
and=20
leaders of the National League for Democracy (NLD), but also with the =
leaders of=20
ethnic-based political parties. Normally, the Burmese would have denied =
the=20
Mission visas in retaliation for the EU’s visa ban for senior =
officials of the=20
regime. Prior to the Troika Mission, the military had also started =
making the=20
right noises about dialogue with the NLD and the role of Aung San Suu =
Kyi, the=20
NLD and other democratic forces to help rebuild the country. Since the =
regime=20
believes that it is the sole guardian of Burma’s =
non-disintegration,=20
sovereignty, and solidarity, this was surprising.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">But=20
whatever the EU or the Burmese military had in mind, everything started =
to=20
unravel in October beginning first with the seizure of the Burmese =
embassy in=20
Bangkok by armed gunmen, then the armed clashes between Thai and Burmese =
troops,=20
and finally the failure of the UN mission to Burma led by Assistant=20
Secretary-General for Political Affairs Alvaro de Soto, who visited =
Rangoon=20
14-18 October with a World Bank representative. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
Burmese democracy movement has been non-violent and it remains so. But =
the new=20
violence indicates that time is running out. Fringe groups, frustrated =
by the=20
lack of progress on the political front, are beginning to take drastic =
action.=20
The danger is that if the political stalemate in Burma continues, more =
and more=20
dissidents could turn to violence which even Aung San Suu Kyi may =
eventually not=20
be able to control. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
problem is that the military is paralyzed by fear. The generals’ =
rejection of=20
the de Soto mission shows that they are not ready for mediation and =
resent the=20
implication that they can be bribed by World Bank loans. The extent of =
the=20
generals’ paranoia can be seen in how they are currently turning =
against=20
Thailand, one of the ASEAN countries that lobbied the hardest for Burma =
with the=20
EU. Angered by the non-violent resolution of the Bangkok embassy crisis =
and the=20
escape of the gunmen, the Burmese have stopped all border trade and =
reinforced=20
its troops on the borders, accusing Thailand of aiding the gunmen. =
Whenever=20
domestic pressures build up, the Burmese generals have always evoked =
a<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>‘foreign threat’ =
to diffuse the=20
situation.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">For=20
the first time, Thailand has not backed down. Crack troops are being =
sent to the=20
border. The Burmese generals may have miscalculated this time and =
instead of=20
relieving the domestic pressure, they may have also created a real =
‘foreign=20
threat’. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
EU should perhaps practise conflict management before Burma’s =
problems become=20
regional ones which will affect EU-ASEAN relations. Building on the =
Troika=20
Mission, the EU might be in a better position than the UN to foster =
dialogue=20
between the military and Aung San Suu Kyi.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>The UN attempt was seen by the Burmese as an imposition of an =
‘outside’=20
solution. The EU needs to avoid this by first consulting more widely and =
on a=20
more sustained basis with - the military,<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>Aung San Suu Kyi, the NLD, the ethnic-based political parties, =
the exiled=20
National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, the border-based =
ethnic=20
armies, the Burmese expatriate community around the world, and other =
governments=20
including China, Japan and India.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Given=20
that the EU Common Position is in place for another six months and the =
fact that=20
the European Parliament will not let the Common Position be watered down =
without=20
any real political reforms, an EU initiative might be acceptable to =
Burma’s=20
democratic friends. Finland’s human rights stand and =
Portugal’s championing of=20
the East Timorese cause could also stand the EU in good stead. The key =
is to get=20
the Burmese to talk to each other. Time is running out.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; =
mso-pagination: widow-orphan"><SPAN=20
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DHTMLBody style=3D"MARGIN: 0cm 21.35pt 0pt 14.2pt"><SPAN =
lang=3DEN-GB=20
style=3D"mso-ansi-language: =
EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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